Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

AREQUIPA / AREQUIPA / MOLLEBAYA — District municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · AREQUIPA / AREQUIPA / MOLLEBAYA / AREQUIPA · municipal · District municipal ballotPE-6f8cde0787212d

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
AREQUIPA / AREQUIPA / MOLLEBAYA / AREQUIPA
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-2432f4ba36bb33c61e7e8948
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • AREQUIPA RENACE21.3%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE19.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AREQUIPA AVANCEMOS14.3%
  • JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPA14.1%
  • AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACION11.1%
  • YO AREQUIPA5.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL REVALORA4.7%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO4.1%
  • AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTURO3.6%
  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA1.3%
  • JUNTOS POR EL PERU0.6%
Results for event-432df7ade9e43e467f5d2275
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
AREQUIPA RENACEperu/Sc91a28be23/202244521.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBREperu/Sc91a28be23/202240319.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AREQUIPA AVANCEMOSperu/Sc91a28be23/202229814.3%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPAperu/Sc91a28be23/202229414.1%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACIONperu/Sc91a28be23/202223111.1%UnknownRecorded
YO AREQUIPAperu/Sc91a28be23/20221155.5%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL REVALORAperu/Sc91a28be23/2022984.7%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sc91a28be23/2022864.1%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTUROperu/Sc91a28be23/2022753.6%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/Sc91a28be23/2022271.3%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL PERUperu/Sc91a28be23/2022130.6%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO19.7%
  • JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPA17.9%
  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA13.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AREQUIPA AVANCEMOS10.9%
  • AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIO10.0%
  • AREQUIPA RENACE9.5%
  • ACCION POPULAR7.8%
  • AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACION5.5%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU3.2%
  • DEMOCRACIA DIRECTA2.4%
  • TODOS POR EL PERU0.0%
  • EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTAD0.0%
  • FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP0.0%
  • PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC0.0%
  • PERU PATRIA SEGURA0.0%
  • PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERU0.0%
  • RESTAURACION NACIONAL0.0%
  • SIEMPRE UNIDOS0.0%
  • UNION POR EL PERU0.0%
  • VAMOS PERU0.0%
  • JUNTOS POR EL SUR0.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL INDEPENDIENTE AREQUIPA MIA0.0%
  • TODOS POR AREQUIPA0.0%
Results for event-4ed281d2a7dd63ab7956fb5a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3a6d07677a/201832119.7%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPAperu/S3a6d07677a/201829317.9%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/S3a6d07677a/201821313%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AREQUIPA AVANCEMOSperu/S3a6d07677a/201817810.9%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIOperu/S3a6d07677a/201816410%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA RENACEperu/S3a6d07677a/20181559.5%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S3a6d07677a/20181287.8%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA TRANSFORMACIONperu/S3a6d07677a/2018895.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/2018523.2%UnknownRecorded
DEMOCRACIA DIRECTAperu/S3a6d07677a/2018402.4%UnknownRecorded
TODOS POR EL PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTADperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAPperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPCperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PERU PATRIA SEGURAperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
RESTAURACION NACIONALperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
SIEMPRE UNIDOSperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
UNION POR EL PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
VAMOS PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL SURperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL INDEPENDIENTE AREQUIPA MIAperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
TODOS POR AREQUIPAperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • AREQUIPA RENACE28.1%
  • JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPA25.5%
  • FUERZA AREQUIPEÑA23.0%
  • AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIO9.5%
  • AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTURO7.5%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AREQUIPA6.4%
Results for event-d35629376a02b46767094a3d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
AREQUIPA RENACEperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201436128.1%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AREQUIPAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201432725.5%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA AREQUIPEÑAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201429523%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA - UNIDOS POR EL GRAN CAMBIOperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/20141229.5%UnknownRecorded
AREQUIPA, TRADICION Y FUTUROperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014967.5%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AREQUIPAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014826.4%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

90.060–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=2.0143884892086312, oldest_gap=2.65003897116134, previous_gap=1.7146356399265166

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

26.56percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[4.124700239808154,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.87529976019187],[19.657072872014698,3.1843233312921004,7.838334353949786,0,0,0,0,0,69.32026944274341],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[4.124700239808154,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.87529976019187],[19.657072872014698,3.1843233312921004,7.838334353949786,0,0,0,0,0,69.32026944274341],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[4.124700239808154,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.87529976019187],[19.657072872014698,3.1843233312921004,7.838334353949786,0,0,0,0,0,69.32026944274341],null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “AREQUIPA / AREQUIPA / MOLLEBAYA — District municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-6f8cde0787212d. Sources: peru--url-9bd067e0afb3adebfbe26129, peru--url-d2ce24b0d891532338ce443b, peru--url-70fbea0821c469ccfe91fe2c, peru--Sc91a28be23, peru--S3a6d07677a, peru--Sf2ea9fdc53.