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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

AYACUCHO / VILCAS HUAMAN — Provincial municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · AYACUCHO / VILCAS HUAMAN / AYACUCHO · municipal · Provincial municipal ballotPE-5448b7bbdd742e

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
AYACUCHO / VILCAS HUAMAN / AYACUCHO
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-6e237ee54b5cd66e2242cf50
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AGUA34.7%
  • ALIANZA POR NUESTRO DESARROLLO30.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL WARI LLAQTA28.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHO4.0%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU2.8%
  • PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 20210.3%
Results for event-c3d68c09887682661c6c39e6
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AGUAperu/S3bc179da18/20223,98634.7%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA POR NUESTRO DESARROLLOperu/S3bc179da18/20223,45530.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL WARI LLAQTAperu/S3bc179da18/20223,21928%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHOperu/S3bc179da18/20224624%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/S3bc179da18/20223262.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 2021peru/S3bc179da18/2022340.3%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHO30.4%
  • QATUN TARPUY26.9%
  • EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTAD26.8%
  • MUSUQ ÑAN6.4%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO4.2%
  • TECNOLOGIA DE PUNTA PARA AYACUCHO2.8%
  • DESARROLLO INTEGRAL AYACUCHO2.3%
  • PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC0.3%
  • ACCION POPULAR0.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE INNOVACION REGIONAL0.0%
Results for event-279f363968896a7e573eaef4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20183,21330.4%UnknownRecorded
QATUN TARPUYperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,84426.9%UnknownRecorded
EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTADperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,83426.8%UnknownRecorded
MUSUQ ÑANperu/Sbbedb7d378/20186776.4%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20184454.2%UnknownRecorded
TECNOLOGIA DE PUNTA PARA AYACUCHOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182942.8%UnknownRecorded
DESARROLLO INTEGRAL AYACUCHOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182442.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPCperu/Sbbedb7d378/2018350.3%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE INNOVACION REGIONALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • QATUN TARPUY24.5%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AYACUCHO24.1%
  • ALIANZA RENACE AYACUCHO21.1%
  • FUERZA POPULAR21.1%
  • MUSUQ ÑAN8.4%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO0.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO ETNOCACERISTA AYACUCHO0.2%
Results for event-762ada3a0efa3d1db99f13b5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
QATUN TARPUYperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,52224.5%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AYACUCHOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,47524.1%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA RENACE AYACUCHOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,17221.1%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,16421.1%UnknownRecorded
MUSUQ ÑANperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20148638.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/2014600.6%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ETNOCACERISTA AYACUCHOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/2014210.2%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

80.670–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=4.624629855425887, oldest_gap=0.45733190619830566, previous_gap=3.485735877574154

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

4.53percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,2.8392266155722,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.16077338442781],[4.203665218212734,0,0,0,0,0.33062535424145095,0,0,95.46570942754582],[0,0,0,21.05672861730077,0.5838279653595407,0,0,0,78.35944341733969]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

21.64percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,2.8392266155722,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.16077338442781],[4.203665218212734,0,0,0,0,0.33062535424145095,0,0,95.46570942754582],[0,0,0,21.05672861730077,0.5838279653595407,0,0,0,78.35944341733969]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

13.09percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,2.8392266155722,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.16077338442781],[4.203665218212734,0,0,0,0,0.33062535424145095,0,0,95.46570942754582],[0,0,0,21.05672861730077,0.5838279653595407,0,0,0,78.35944341733969]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “AYACUCHO / VILCAS HUAMAN — Provincial municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-5448b7bbdd742e. Sources: peru--url-2167986ad6cb1469c5af7df3, peru--url-7b4df59b8b2465be34b9c6c3, peru--url-01d658538c97311184ffb6e0, peru--S3bc179da18, peru--Sbbedb7d378, peru--S0ef30ae2f8.