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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

UCAYALI / PADRE ABAD — Provincial municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · UCAYALI / PADRE ABAD / UCAYALI · municipal · Provincial municipal ballotPE-2e2f59a965250c

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
UCAYALI / PADRE ABAD / UCAYALI
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-254629f814f3522fad45dcce
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • TODOS SOMOS UCAYALI35.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL CAMBIO UCAYALINO27.7%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO17.7%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE8.7%
  • UCAYALI REGION CON FUTURO5.1%
  • PODEMOS PERU4.8%
  • AVANZA PAIS - PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION SOCIAL0.8%
Results for event-e4f7d0a8cdede5ec475be1c0
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
TODOS SOMOS UCAYALIperu/S3bc179da18/202211,61235.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL CAMBIO UCAYALINOperu/S3bc179da18/20229,16327.7%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3bc179da18/20225,83717.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBREperu/S3bc179da18/20222,8898.7%UnknownRecorded
UCAYALI REGION CON FUTUROperu/S3bc179da18/20221,6915.1%UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS PERUperu/S3bc179da18/20221,5834.8%UnknownRecorded
AVANZA PAIS - PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION SOCIALperu/S3bc179da18/20222540.8%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • TODOS SOMOS UCAYALI26.1%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO22.3%
  • FUERZA POPULAR15.9%
  • DEMOCRACIA DIRECTA9.3%
  • TODOS POR EL PERU8.2%
  • UCAYALI REGION CON FUTURO4.9%
  • INTEGRANDO UCAYALI3.7%
  • ACCION POPULAR3.5%
  • PERU LIBERTARIO2.1%
  • PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC2.1%
  • FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP2.0%
  • AVANZA PAIS - PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION SOCIAL0.0%
  • PERUANOS POR EL KAMBIO0.0%
  • CIENCIA Y ACCION MOVILIZADORA DE UCAYALI0.0%
  • UNION POR EL PERU0.0%
  • PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERU0.0%
  • RESTAURACION NACIONAL0.0%
Results for event-bec7e7cab07d568c8d8df821
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
TODOS SOMOS UCAYALIperu/Sbbedb7d378/20188,07926.1%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20186,91122.3%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20184,92715.9%UnknownRecorded
DEMOCRACIA DIRECTAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,8899.3%UnknownRecorded
TODOS POR EL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,5438.2%UnknownRecorded
UCAYALI REGION CON FUTUROperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,5044.9%UnknownRecorded
INTEGRANDO UCAYALIperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,1403.7%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,0803.5%UnknownRecorded
PERU LIBERTARIOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20186532.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPCperu/Sbbedb7d378/20186422.1%UnknownRecorded
FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAPperu/Sbbedb7d378/20186162%UnknownRecorded
AVANZA PAIS - PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION SOCIALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PERUANOS POR EL KAMBIOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
CIENCIA Y ACCION MOVILIZADORA DE UCAYALIperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
UNION POR EL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
RESTAURACION NACIONALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL CAMBIO UCAYALINO24.3%
  • TODOS SOMOS UCAYALI22.1%
  • UCAYALI REGION CON FUTURO21.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO REGIONAL FUERZA UCAYALINA (FU)20.0%
  • BLOQUE POPULAR UCAYALI7.1%
  • INTEGRANDO UCAYALI2.4%
  • FUERZA POPULAR2.2%
  • CONFIANZA UCAYALI0.3%
Results for event-a2c39df7aeb47613e8c73eed
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL CAMBIO UCAYALINOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20146,60924.3%UnknownRecorded
TODOS SOMOS UCAYALIperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20146,00122.1%UnknownRecorded
UCAYALI REGION CON FUTUROperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20145,84521.5%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO REGIONAL FUERZA UCAYALINA (FU)peru/S0ef30ae2f8/20145,41820%UnknownRecorded
BLOQUE POPULAR UCAYALIperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,9357.1%UnknownRecorded
INTEGRANDO UCAYALIperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20146602.4%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20145852.2%UnknownRecorded
CONFIANZA UCAYALIperu/S0ef30ae2f8/2014930.3%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

70.980–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=7.414696176087681, oldest_gap=2.239740661607602, previous_gap=3.7696875806868064

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

28.08percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[17.672348542190196,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.32765145780981],[22.30506067647818,0,3.4856700232378,15.901755744900594,0,2.072037180480248,0,1.9881229021430415,54.24735347276014],[0,0,0,2.1550136300007368,0,0,0,0,97.84498636999926]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

43.6percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[17.672348542190196,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.32765145780981],[22.30506067647818,0,3.4856700232378,15.901755744900594,0,2.072037180480248,0,1.9881229021430415,54.24735347276014],[0,0,0,2.1550136300007368,0,0,0,0,97.84498636999926]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

35.84percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[17.672348542190196,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.32765145780981],[22.30506067647818,0,3.4856700232378,15.901755744900594,0,2.072037180480248,0,1.9881229021430415,54.24735347276014],[0,0,0,2.1550136300007368,0,0,0,0,97.84498636999926]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “UCAYALI / PADRE ABAD — Provincial municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-2e2f59a965250c. Sources: peru--url-2167986ad6cb1469c5af7df3, peru--url-7b4df59b8b2465be34b9c6c3, peru--url-01d658538c97311184ffb6e0, peru--S3bc179da18, peru--Sbbedb7d378, peru--S0ef30ae2f8.