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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

AYACUCHO / VICTOR FAJARDO — Provincial municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · AYACUCHO / VICTOR FAJARDO / AYACUCHO · municipal · Provincial municipal ballotPE-1c6a39b059d6e7

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
AYACUCHO / VICTOR FAJARDO / AYACUCHO
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-6e47b735544f3a1807d869c3
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL WARI LLAQTA29.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AGUA26.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHO22.5%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE12.6%
  • ALIANZA POR NUESTRO DESARROLLO6.0%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO2.7%
Results for event-0d0386bcce7c1a3434493383
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL WARI LLAQTAperu/S3bc179da18/20223,38329.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AGUAperu/S3bc179da18/20223,08726.9%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHOperu/S3bc179da18/20222,58222.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBREperu/S3bc179da18/20221,45012.6%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA POR NUESTRO DESARROLLOperu/S3bc179da18/20226866%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3bc179da18/20223092.7%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • QATUN TARPUY29.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHO23.6%
  • MUSUQ ÑAN21.7%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO10.6%
  • DESARROLLO INTEGRAL AYACUCHO8.7%
  • TECNOLOGIA DE PUNTA PARA AYACUCHO3.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE INNOVACION REGIONAL2.2%
  • DEMOCRACIA DIRECTA0.0%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO0.0%
  • EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTAD0.0%
Results for event-6bcda9b961267593dffe7c2a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
QATUN TARPUYperu/Sbbedb7d378/20183,12429.9%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,47423.6%UnknownRecorded
MUSUQ ÑANperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,26821.7%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,10410.6%UnknownRecorded
DESARROLLO INTEGRAL AYACUCHOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20189148.7%UnknownRecorded
TECNOLOGIA DE PUNTA PARA AYACUCHOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20183523.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE INNOVACION REGIONALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182252.2%UnknownRecorded
DEMOCRACIA DIRECTAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTADperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALIANZA RENACE AYACUCHO28.6%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AYACUCHO22.6%
  • MUSUQ ÑAN17.9%
  • QATUN TARPUY17.0%
  • FUERZA POPULAR10.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE INNOVACION REGIONAL3.3%
Results for event-458ab14094330673aeaec1d0
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA RENACE AYACUCHOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,98028.6%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AYACUCHOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,35422.6%UnknownRecorded
MUSUQ ÑANperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,86317.9%UnknownRecorded
QATUN TARPUYperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,77117%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,11110.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE INNOVACION REGIONALperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20143493.3%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

79.950–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=2.5745846742628515, oldest_gap=6.00306866129651, previous_gap=6.213555109454163

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

7.87percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[2.6876576498216926,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.31234235017831],[10.55348437051907,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,89.44651562948091],[0,0,0,10.654008438818565,0,0,0,0,89.34599156118142]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

10.65percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[2.6876576498216926,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.31234235017831],[10.55348437051907,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,89.44651562948091],[0,0,0,10.654008438818565,0,0,0,0,89.34599156118142]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

9.26percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[2.6876576498216926,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.31234235017831],[10.55348437051907,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,89.44651562948091],[0,0,0,10.654008438818565,0,0,0,0,89.34599156118142]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “AYACUCHO / VICTOR FAJARDO — Provincial municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-1c6a39b059d6e7. Sources: peru--url-2167986ad6cb1469c5af7df3, peru--url-7b4df59b8b2465be34b9c6c3, peru--url-01d658538c97311184ffb6e0, peru--S3bc179da18, peru--Sbbedb7d378, peru--S0ef30ae2f8.