Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

ANCASH / CASMA — Provincial municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · ANCASH / CASMA / ANCASH · municipal · Provincial municipal ballotPE-17bcb7fb417439

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
ANCASH / CASMA / ANCASH
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-fd3aabe03019fe147fe449ef
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITO32.9%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO18.9%
  • SOCIOS POR ANCASH17.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANO13.0%
  • ALIANZA GOBIERNO UNIDAD Y ACCION - AGUA12.0%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE1.9%
  • JUNTOS POR EL PERU1.6%
  • PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 20211.3%
  • FUERZA POPULAR0.8%
  • PARTIDO MORADO0.5%
Results for event-dfe4111c6aac6f5d934c4de0
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITOperu/S3bc179da18/20229,05432.9%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3bc179da18/20225,18818.9%UnknownRecorded
SOCIOS POR ANCASHperu/S3bc179da18/20224,70317.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANOperu/S3bc179da18/20223,57713%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA GOBIERNO UNIDAD Y ACCION - AGUAperu/S3bc179da18/20223,31312%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBREperu/S3bc179da18/20225321.9%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL PERUperu/S3bc179da18/20224401.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 2021peru/S3bc179da18/20223461.3%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S3bc179da18/20222080.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO MORADOperu/S3bc179da18/20221470.5%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO16.3%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU12.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITO11.5%
  • RESTAURACION NACIONAL9.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANO9.7%
  • UNION POR EL PERU7.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL ANDE - MAR6.1%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO5.4%
  • TODOS POR EL PERU4.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL ANCASH A LA OBRA4.6%
  • SIEMPRE UNIDOS4.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL RIO SANTA CAUDALOSO2.8%
  • ACCION POPULAR1.6%
  • JUNTOS POR EL PERU1.4%
  • FUERZA POPULAR1.3%
  • PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERU0.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL HORA CERO0.2%
  • PERU NACION0.2%
Results for event-dc993d2e3e13d7319f54d61c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20184,09116.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20183,11012.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,88811.5%UnknownRecorded
RESTAURACION NACIONALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,4289.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182,4239.7%UnknownRecorded
UNION POR EL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,8427.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL ANDE - MARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,5316.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,3445.4%UnknownRecorded
TODOS POR EL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,1814.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL ANCASH A LA OBRAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,1564.6%UnknownRecorded
SIEMPRE UNIDOSperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,0694.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL RIO SANTA CAUDALOSOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20186922.8%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20184041.6%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS POR EL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20183621.4%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20183341.3%UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/2018860.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL HORA CEROperu/Sbbedb7d378/2018620.2%UnknownRecorded
PERU NACIONperu/Sbbedb7d378/2018460.2%UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO23.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL PURO ANCASH16.7%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU16.0%
  • UNION POR EL PERU11.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL RIO SANTA CAUDALOSO11.3%
  • PARTIDO HUMANISTA PERUANO9.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL ANDE - MAR5.1%
  • SIEMPRE UNIDOS2.0%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO1.6%
  • UNION NACIONALISTA ANCASHINA1.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANO1.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITO1.1%
Results for event-ef113bf618f25d091acbf51a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20145,74523%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL PURO ANCASHperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20144,18716.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20144,00316%UnknownRecorded
UNION POR EL PERUperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,86711.5%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE REGIONAL RIO SANTA CAUDALOSOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,82311.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO HUMANISTA PERUANOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,2419%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL ANDE - MARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,2825.1%UnknownRecorded
SIEMPRE UNIDOSperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20144972%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20143951.6%UnknownRecorded
UNION NACIONALISTA ANCASHINAperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20143841.5%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ACCION NACIONALISTA PERUANOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142981.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL EL MAICITOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142821.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

48.850–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=14.05409335466046, oldest_gap=6.231003039513677, previous_gap=3.9163240049502956

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

27.32percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[18.859968009306385,0,0,0.7561436672967864,0,0,0,0,80.38388832339685],[16.331989300970097,12.415665296019801,1.6128388358816719,1.3333865623378178,5.3654836520419975,0,7.353586969539702,0,55.58704938320891],[22.976323788193888,16.009438489841624,0,0,1.5797472404415294,0,11.466165413533835,0,47.96832506798913]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

14.35percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[18.859968009306385,0,0,0.7561436672967864,0,0,0,0,80.38388832339685],[16.331989300970097,12.415665296019801,1.6128388358816719,1.3333865623378178,5.3654836520419975,0,7.353586969539702,0,55.58704938320891],[22.976323788193888,16.009438489841624,0,0,1.5797472404415294,0,11.466165413533835,0,47.96832506798913]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

20.84percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[18.859968009306385,0,0,0.7561436672967864,0,0,0,0,80.38388832339685],[16.331989300970097,12.415665296019801,1.6128388358816719,1.3333865623378178,5.3654836520419975,0,7.353586969539702,0,55.58704938320891],[22.976323788193888,16.009438489841624,0,0,1.5797472404415294,0,11.466165413533835,0,47.96832506798913]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “ANCASH / CASMA — Provincial municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-17bcb7fb417439. Sources: peru--url-2167986ad6cb1469c5af7df3, peru--url-7b4df59b8b2465be34b9c6c3, peru--url-01d658538c97311184ffb6e0, peru--S3bc179da18, peru--Sbbedb7d378, peru--S0ef30ae2f8.