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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

CAJAMARCA / SAN MARCOS — Provincial municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · CAJAMARCA / SAN MARCOS / CAJAMARCA · municipal · Provincial municipal ballotPE-0c79093ffa35fd

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
CAJAMARCA / SAN MARCOS / CAJAMARCA
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-179572a205f30ba38ed35108
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 202141.0%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU32.4%
  • FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCA20.2%
  • CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDE4.6%
  • AVANZA PAIS - PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION SOCIAL1.8%
Results for event-1e0a176247ed6947bb87914a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 2021peru/S3bc179da18/20229,80341%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/S3bc179da18/20227,74232.4%UnknownRecorded
FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCAperu/S3bc179da18/20224,84120.2%UnknownRecorded
CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDEperu/S3bc179da18/20221,1114.6%UnknownRecorded
AVANZA PAIS - PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION SOCIALperu/S3bc179da18/20224261.8%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO48.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE AFIRMACION SOCIAL33.2%
  • ACCION POPULAR8.2%
  • FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCA4.4%
  • CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDE3.6%
  • PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERU2.0%
  • DEMOCRACIA DIRECTA0.0%
  • EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTAD0.0%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU0.0%
  • RESTAURACION NACIONAL0.0%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO0.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION REGIONAL0.0%
Results for event-fdca2d5819d3f20f15c4c223
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sbbedb7d378/201810,70948.6%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE AFIRMACION SOCIALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20187,32633.2%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,8138.2%UnknownRecorded
FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20189794.4%UnknownRecorded
CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDEperu/Sbbedb7d378/20187893.6%UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20184302%UnknownRecorded
DEMOCRACIA DIRECTAperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
EL FRENTE AMPLIO POR JUSTICIA, VIDA Y LIBERTADperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
RESTAURACION NACIONALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION REGIONALperu/Sbbedb7d378/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE AFIRMACION SOCIAL37.0%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO26.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE DIALOGO SOCIAL12.0%
  • CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDE8.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL FUERZA SOCIAL CAJAMARCA7.2%
  • FUERZA POPULAR7.2%
  • FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCA1.7%
Results for event-711904f1c80b0dd2dd6914da
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE AFIRMACION SOCIALperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20147,85337%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20145,60326.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE DIALOGO SOCIALperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142,55312%UnknownRecorded
CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDEperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,7938.5%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL FUERZA SOCIAL CAJAMARCAperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,5387.2%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20141,5247.2%UnknownRecorded
FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCAperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20143541.7%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

45.830–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.615140241608493, oldest_gap=10.604203977754736, previous_gap=15.345187335571076

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

56.8percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,32.36216193621201,0,0,0,0,0,0,67.63783806378798],[48.575705343372945,0,8.223714052435817,0,0,0,0,0,43.20058060419124],[26.406824394382127,0,0,7.1825808275992085,0,0,0,0,66.41059477801866]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

30.39percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,32.36216193621201,0,0,0,0,0,0,67.63783806378798],[48.575705343372945,0,8.223714052435817,0,0,0,0,0,43.20058060419124],[26.406824394382127,0,0,7.1825808275992085,0,0,0,0,66.41059477801866]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

43.6percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,32.36216193621201,0,0,0,0,0,0,67.63783806378798],[48.575705343372945,0,8.223714052435817,0,0,0,0,0,43.20058060419124],[26.406824394382127,0,0,7.1825808275992085,0,0,0,0,66.41059477801866]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “CAJAMARCA / SAN MARCOS — Provincial municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-0c79093ffa35fd. Sources: peru--url-2167986ad6cb1469c5af7df3, peru--url-7b4df59b8b2465be34b9c6c3, peru--url-01d658538c97311184ffb6e0, peru--S3bc179da18, peru--Sbbedb7d378, peru--S0ef30ae2f8.