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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

CAJAMARCA / SAN MIGUEL / UNION AGUA BLANCA — District municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · CAJAMARCA / SAN MIGUEL / UNION AGUA BLANCA / CAJAMARCA · municipal · District municipal ballotPE-071a327c9266c3

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
CAJAMARCA / SAN MIGUEL / UNION AGUA BLANCA / CAJAMARCA
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-88b5e25cf68968f7e3d84d57
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 202123.8%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE20.6%
  • CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDE19.3%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU19.0%
  • FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCA12.7%
  • ACCION POPULAR4.7%
Results for event-b8bfe74f0f8a7ad9d09d00a0
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO FRENTE DE LA ESPERANZA 2021peru/Sc91a28be23/202247623.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBREperu/Sc91a28be23/202241120.6%UnknownRecorded
CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDEperu/Sc91a28be23/202238619.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/Sc91a28be23/202237919%UnknownRecorded
FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCAperu/Sc91a28be23/202225312.7%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/Sc91a28be23/2022944.7%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION REGIONAL33.3%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO18.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE AFIRMACION SOCIAL18.1%
  • PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERU14.5%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO10.4%
  • CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDE4.4%
  • PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU0.4%
  • TODOS POR EL PERU0.0%
  • ACCION POPULAR0.0%
  • FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCA0.0%
Results for event-e865c0871a69c1d4e7671f95
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION REGIONALperu/S3a6d07677a/201864833.3%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3a6d07677a/201836818.9%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE AFIRMACION SOCIALperu/S3a6d07677a/201835218.1%UnknownRecorded
PODEMOS POR EL PROGRESO DEL PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/201828314.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/S3a6d07677a/201820310.4%UnknownRecorded
CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDEperu/S3a6d07677a/2018864.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/201870.4%UnknownRecorded
TODOS POR EL PERUperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded
FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCAperu/S3a6d07677a/20180 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCA24.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL FUERZA SOCIAL CAJAMARCA23.4%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO18.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE AFIRMACION SOCIAL14.6%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO12.1%
  • FUERZA POPULAR3.7%
  • CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDE2.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE DIALOGO SOCIAL0.5%
  • LUCHEMOS POR CAJAMARCA0.4%
Results for event-5e1a698fc8f23ede2873cf93
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
FRENTE REGIONAL DE CAJAMARCAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201449624.6%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL FUERZA SOCIAL CAJAMARCAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201447223.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201436818.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE AFIRMACION SOCIALperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201429414.6%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201424412.1%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014753.7%UnknownRecorded
CAJAMARCA SIEMPRE VERDEperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014462.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE DIALOGO SOCIALperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/2014110.5%UnknownRecorded
LUCHEMOS POR CAJAMARCAperu/Sf2ea9fdc53/201480.4%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

68.080–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=3.251625812906454, oldest_gap=1.1916583912611713, previous_gap=14.38109912686184

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

29.33percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,18.959479739869934,4.702351175587794,0,0,0,0,0,76.33816908454227],[18.900873138161273,0.35952747817154596,0,0,10.426296866974834,0,0,0,70.31330251669235],[12.11519364448858,0,0,3.723932472691162,18.272095332671302,0,0,0,65.88877855014897]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

11.57percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,18.959479739869934,4.702351175587794,0,0,0,0,0,76.33816908454227],[18.900873138161273,0.35952747817154596,0,0,10.426296866974834,0,0,0,70.31330251669235],[12.11519364448858,0,0,3.723932472691162,18.272095332671302,0,0,0,65.88877855014897]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

20.45percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,18.959479739869934,4.702351175587794,0,0,0,0,0,76.33816908454227],[18.900873138161273,0.35952747817154596,0,0,10.426296866974834,0,0,0,70.31330251669235],[12.11519364448858,0,0,3.723932472691162,18.272095332671302,0,0,0,65.88877855014897]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “CAJAMARCA / SAN MIGUEL / UNION AGUA BLANCA — District municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-071a327c9266c3. Sources: peru--url-9bd067e0afb3adebfbe26129, peru--url-d2ce24b0d891532338ce443b, peru--url-70fbea0821c469ccfe91fe2c, peru--Sc91a28be23, peru--S3a6d07677a, peru--Sf2ea9fdc53.