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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

AYACUCHO / PAUCAR DEL SARA SARA — Provincial municipal ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Peru · AYACUCHO / PAUCAR DEL SARA SARA / AYACUCHO · municipal · Provincial municipal ballotPE-06a37910ed4132

Read the complete original research briefing

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
AYACUCHO / PAUCAR DEL SARA SARA / AYACUCHO
Next election
2026-10-04
Linked upcoming event
next-704243165f90767cce47f43c
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-10-04 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2022-10-02

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AGUA25.0%
  • ALIANZA POR NUESTRO DESARROLLO23.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHO20.4%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO18.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL WARI LLAQTA11.9%
Results for event-e45aef4a79b971ae41bfe653
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL AGUAperu/S3bc179da18/20221,08325%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA POR NUESTRO DESARROLLOperu/S3bc179da18/20221,02523.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHOperu/S3bc179da18/202288320.4%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/S3bc179da18/202281918.9%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL WARI LLAQTAperu/S3bc179da18/202251711.9%UnknownRecorded

2018-10-07

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MUSUQ ÑAN30.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHO20.8%
  • TECNOLOGIA DE PUNTA PARA AYACUCHO14.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE INNOVACION REGIONAL13.8%
  • ACCION POPULAR6.0%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO5.4%
  • QATUN TARPUY3.6%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO3.1%
  • DESARROLLO INTEGRAL AYACUCHO2.6%
Results for event-001d17e138de018c5f237346
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MUSUQ ÑANperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181,26030.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO REGIONAL GANA AYACUCHOperu/Sbbedb7d378/201886720.8%UnknownRecorded
TECNOLOGIA DE PUNTA PARA AYACUCHOperu/Sbbedb7d378/201860814.6%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE INNOVACION REGIONALperu/Sbbedb7d378/201857613.8%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182496%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20182255.4%UnknownRecorded
QATUN TARPUYperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181523.6%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181293.1%UnknownRecorded
DESARROLLO INTEGRAL AYACUCHOperu/Sbbedb7d378/20181082.6%UnknownRecorded

2014-10-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • UNIDOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AYACUCHO20.0%
  • ALIANZA RENACE AYACUCHO15.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE INNOVACION REGIONAL15.8%
  • FUERZA POPULAR14.8%
  • QATUN TARPUY10.2%
  • ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AYACUCHO9.5%
  • ACCION POPULAR9.1%
  • PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO4.7%
Results for event-f7dbbbcbb48ecef7e3190ea7
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDOS POR EL DESARROLLO DE AYACUCHOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/201487020%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA RENACE AYACUCHOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/201468915.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE INNOVACION REGIONALperu/S0ef30ae2f8/201468715.8%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/201464414.8%UnknownRecorded
QATUN TARPUYperu/S0ef30ae2f8/201444310.2%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO DE AYACUCHOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20144149.5%UnknownRecorded
ACCION POPULARperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20143989.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANOperu/S0ef30ae2f8/20142054.7%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

79.780–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.3404206147446267, oldest_gap=4.1609195402298855, previous_gap=9.415428845232388

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

15.84percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[18.927663508204297,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,81.07233649179571],[3.0905606133205556,0,5.965500718735027,0,5.390512697652132,0,0,0,85.5534259702923],[0,0,9.149425287356323,14.804597701149426,4.712643678160919,0,0,0,71.33333333333333]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

17.99percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[18.927663508204297,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,81.07233649179571],[3.0905606133205556,0,5.965500718735027,0,5.390512697652132,0,0,0,85.5534259702923],[0,0,9.149425287356323,14.804597701149426,4.712643678160919,0,0,0,71.33333333333333]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

16.91percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eight exact standalone national-party-name categories in ONPE returns. Regional movements, alliances and changed labels remain Other; no merger or party-rename bridge is assumed. Source geography and validity exclusions apply before calculation. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["ALIANZA PARA EL PROGRESO","PARTIDO DEMOCRATICO SOMOS PERU","ACCION POPULAR","FUERZA POPULAR","PARTIDO APRISTA PERUANO","PARTIDO POPULAR CRISTIANO - PPC","UNION POR EL PERU","FRENTE POPULAR AGRICOLA FIA DEL PERU - FREPAP","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[18.927663508204297,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,81.07233649179571],[3.0905606133205556,0,5.965500718735027,0,5.390512697652132,0,0,0,85.5534259702923],[0,0,9.149425287356323,14.804597701149426,4.712643678160919,0,0,0,71.33333333333333]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

ONPE geography matched on full named hierarchy; original electoral codes retained. Municipal votes are shared mayor–council slate ballots; seats require JNE proclamation. The 3,085-entry INEI 2026 municipal directory and one unresolved 2025-only entry are tracked separately from RENIEC’s 3,382 electoral rolls. The complete named 2026 local call register and three-cycle vote/seat archive remain unavailable. Manitea Alta is bridged to its new district/code. Valle Nazarategui’s omission requires legal reconciliation. Five malformed 2022 source units, full seat proclamations and current control remain incomplete. Pión’s final annulment and Ninabamba’s final 2025 result are resolved.

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_la_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_2025 .csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 110, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S4d993bb027"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2025.csv", "year": 2025, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 22, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S125d1cb4ee"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2024.csv", "year": 2024, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 12, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S8ba8db0d39"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 75, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S6040ea1fd1"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_EM2015_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 915, "offices": 9, "source_id": "S7fd66d3286"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 95, "offices": 3, "source_id": "Sb5ab8b4e28"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 509064, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S295a380ddb"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 524570, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sa818fce54b"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 765271, "offices": 196, "source_id": "S3bc179da18"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2022_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 542812, "offices": 1694, "source_id": "Sc91a28be23"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Diciembre_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 395, "offices": 18, "source_id": "S251d92ae75"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatorias_2021.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 359, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S6894929125"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2022_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.csv", "year": 2022, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 47156, "offices": 9, "source_id": "Sfcc78da016"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2023_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2023, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 176, "offices": 11, "source_id": "S7e0c9a7d57"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2021_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2021, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 8, "offices": 1, "source_id": "S5d2aee2cc9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Elecciones_Municipales_Complementarias_2019_0.csv", "year": 2019, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 561, "offices": 12, "source_id": "Sd5e707eb97"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_Consulta_Popular_de_Revocatoria_de_Autoridades_Municipales_2017.csv", "year": 2017, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 664, "offices": 0, "source_id": "S37c8a9acbe"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_Resultados_por_mesa_de_las_Nuevas_Elecciones_Municipales_2014_Distrital.csv", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2472, "offices": 36, "source_id": "S3d73c74d79"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Provincial.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 738, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9fe6e388b4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_EMC2015_Municipal_Distrital.csv", "year": 2015, "event_kind": "supplementary", "rows": 2029, "offices": 29, "source_id": "Sf6d6a81fcd"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 1052, "offices": 2, "source_id": "S9520d02bc4"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_SER2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "runoff", "rows": 68006, "offices": 14, "source_id": "Sb8cc55f349"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Distrital.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 835170, "offices": 1647, "source_id": "Sf2ea9fdc53"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Municipal_Provincial.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1188948, "offices": 195, "source_id": "S0ef30ae2f8"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Consejero_Regional.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 792713, "offices": 25, "source_id": "Sb45e7b898e"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2014_Gobernador_Vicegobernador.zip", "year": 2014, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 851285, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S189e36d0d6"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Gobernador_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S984d5a0bb9"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Consejero_Regional_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 755523, "offices": 25, "source_id": "S3bf32d4ffa"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Distrital_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1002013, "offices": 1678, "source_id": "S3a6d07677a"}

  • other · open

    Source reconciliation: {"file": "pe_ERM2018_Municipal_Provincial_total.zip", "year": 2018, "event_kind": "ordinary", "rows": 1284368, "offices": 196, "source_id": "Sbbedb7d378"}

  • other · open

    2026 populated-centre electoral roster reconciliation open: 374 is a net difference, not a verified list of missing offices. Renamings, incorporations and exclusions require the actual 2026 roster. All 3,008 imported names remain provisional members of the 2026 cohort.

  • other · open

    Historical vote vectors and current political control not in INEI directory: The directory supplies identities, officeholder names and self-reported terms. No directory snapshot is counted as a completed election history.

  • other · open

    Term-end exceptions: {"issue": "Term-end exceptions", "counts": {"2026": 2993, "": 4, "2025": 11}, "source_id": "Sa468bb63fbd0"}

  • other · open

    Source encoding limitation: Invalid sequences occur outside all retained fields. Relevant identifiers and names passed the encoding check.

  • other · open

    Partial current-cohort confirmation: RENIEC document contains only 26 centres receiving special registration, not all 3,382 upcoming centres. It does not close the national electoral-map gap.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “AYACUCHO / PAUCAR DEL SARA SARA — Provincial municipal ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/PE-06a37910ed4132. Sources: peru--url-2167986ad6cb1469c5af7df3, peru--url-7b4df59b8b2465be34b9c6c3, peru--url-01d658538c97311184ffb6e0, peru--S3bc179da18, peru--Sbbedb7d378, peru--S0ef30ae2f8.