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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

NANACAMILPA DE MARIANO ARISTA — Municipal government

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Mexico · NANACAMILPA DE MARIANO ARISTA / TLAXCALA · municipal · Municipal governmentMX-M-29-21

Read the complete original research briefing

INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
NANACAMILPA DE MARIANO ARISTA / TLAXCALA
Next election
2027-06-06
Linked upcoming event
next-a8bbf28233a0db727e839d65
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-06 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2024

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PAN_PRI43.6%
  • PANALT22.8%
  • PT14.6%
  • MORENA9.4%
  • PVEM3.8%
  • MC0.8%
  • PAC0.6%
  • PRD0.3%
  • FXM0.2%
  • RSP0.2%
Results for event-e323b61db2d10ebe7e4154fe
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PAN_PRImexico/S9aeaff5eda/20244,12643.6%UnknownRecorded
PANALTmexico/S9aeaff5eda/20242,16122.8%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S9aeaff5eda/20241,37714.6%UnknownRecorded
MORENAmexico/S9aeaff5eda/20248859.4%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/S9aeaff5eda/20243593.8%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S9aeaff5eda/2024710.8%UnknownRecorded
PACmexico/S9aeaff5eda/2024580.6%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/S9aeaff5eda/2024260.3%UnknownRecorded
FXMmexico/S9aeaff5eda/2024230.2%UnknownRecorded
RSPmexico/S9aeaff5eda/2024200.2%UnknownRecorded

2021

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MORENA21.7%
  • PT17.5%
  • PRD16.8%
  • PS13.5%
  • PAC10.7%
  • PRI9.5%
  • MC3.8%
  • PVEM2.1%
  • RSP1.0%
  • PES0.5%
  • PAN0.4%
  • PANALT0.3%
  • PEST0.1%
  • PISSI0.0%
  • FXM0.0%
Results for event-7b1154fb4db00067e2374e82
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MORENAmexico/Sb45ac8da54/20211,96221.7%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/Sb45ac8da54/20211,57917.5%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/Sb45ac8da54/20211,51616.8%UnknownRecorded
PSmexico/Sb45ac8da54/20211,21913.5%UnknownRecorded
PACmexico/Sb45ac8da54/202197110.7%UnknownRecorded
PRImexico/Sb45ac8da54/20218559.5%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/Sb45ac8da54/20213423.8%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/Sb45ac8da54/20211882.1%UnknownRecorded
RSPmexico/Sb45ac8da54/2021921%UnknownRecorded
PESmexico/Sb45ac8da54/2021480.5%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/Sb45ac8da54/2021320.4%UnknownRecorded
PANALTmexico/Sb45ac8da54/2021280.3%UnknownRecorded
PESTmexico/Sb45ac8da54/202160.1%UnknownRecorded
PISSImexico/Sb45ac8da54/202110%UnknownRecorded
FXMmexico/Sb45ac8da54/20210 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2016

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PRI_PS29.9%
  • PANAL24.8%
  • PT15.5%
  • PRD8.9%
  • PAN7.3%
  • MORENA7.3%
  • MC1.0%
  • PAC0.6%
  • PVEM0.6%
Results for event-e816151deff84b080dc87ba4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PRI_PSmexico/Sc68afd71ce/20162,21829.9%UnknownRecorded
PANALmexico/Sc68afd71ce/20161,83324.8%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/Sc68afd71ce/20161,15015.5%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/Sc68afd71ce/20166618.9%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/Sc68afd71ce/20165447.3%UnknownRecorded
MORENAmexico/Sc68afd71ce/20165407.3%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/Sc68afd71ce/2016771%UnknownRecorded
PACmexico/Sc68afd71ce/2016480.6%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/Sc68afd71ce/2016440.6%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

26.060–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=21.57917856358445, oldest_gap=5.411103302881237, previous_gap=4.333069351736622

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

45.21percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0.2855260267955194,15.121897649901165,3.9424555238304415,0.7797056885569954,9.718866681309027,70.15154842960685],[0.36203190406154545,9.673039936644416,17.151261454915716,17.86401176603688,2.126937436361579,3.8692159746577666,22.197081117773504,26.75642040954859],[7.645818692902319,0,9.290231904427266,16.163035839775123,0.6184118060435699,1.0822206605762474,7.589599437807449,57.610681658468025]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

38.14percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0.2855260267955194,15.121897649901165,3.9424555238304415,0.7797056885569954,9.718866681309027,70.15154842960685],[0.36203190406154545,9.673039936644416,17.151261454915716,17.86401176603688,2.126937436361579,3.8692159746577666,22.197081117773504,26.75642040954859],[7.645818692902319,0,9.290231904427266,16.163035839775123,0.6184118060435699,1.0822206605762474,7.589599437807449,57.610681658468025]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

41.67percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0.2855260267955194,15.121897649901165,3.9424555238304415,0.7797056885569954,9.718866681309027,70.15154842960685],[0.36203190406154545,9.673039936644416,17.151261454915716,17.86401176603688,2.126937436361579,3.8692159746577666,22.197081117773504,26.75642040954859],[7.645818692902319,0,9.290231904427266,16.163035839775123,0.6184118060435699,1.0822206605762474,7.589599437807449,57.610681658468025]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

No open research issues attached to this office.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “NANACAMILPA DE MARIANO ARISTA — Municipal government.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/MX-M-29-21. Sources: mexico--url-3635e08ffbefd711526cbeea, mexico--S9aeaff5eda, mexico--Sb45ac8da54, mexico--Sc68afd71ce.