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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

TOLIMAN — Municipal government

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Mexico · TOLIMAN / QUERETARO · municipal · Municipal governmentMX-M-22-18

Read the complete original research briefing

INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
TOLIMAN / QUERETARO
Next election
2027-06-06
Linked upcoming event
next-f1f88309596068a379be027f
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-06 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2024

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PVEM44.5%
  • PAN29.8%
  • MC12.6%
  • MORENA_PT7.1%
  • PRI1.0%
  • QS0.6%
  • CAND_IND60.6%
  • PRD0.2%
Results for event-e03dd208834d75203aadda69
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PVEMmexico/S5dd300c79c/20247,52244.5%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/S5dd300c79c/20245,05029.8%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S5dd300c79c/20242,13912.6%UnknownRecorded
MORENA_PTmexico/S5dd300c79c/20241,2037.1%UnknownRecorded
PRImexico/S5dd300c79c/20241761%UnknownRecorded
QSmexico/S5dd300c79c/20241080.6%UnknownRecorded
CAND_IND6mexico/S5dd300c79c/20241060.6%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/S5dd300c79c/2024360.2%UnknownRecorded

2021

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PAN23.8%
  • MORENA23.0%
  • RSP22.7%
  • PRI8.6%
  • MC7.4%
  • FXM2.8%
  • PRD2.4%
  • PVEM1.7%
  • CAND_IND121.5%
  • PES1.4%
  • QI1.3%
  • PT1.1%
Results for event-9530d81c920207b31356bd80
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PANmexico/S9294bfda75/20213,62423.8%UnknownRecorded
MORENAmexico/S9294bfda75/20213,49423%UnknownRecorded
RSPmexico/S9294bfda75/20213,45622.7%UnknownRecorded
PRImexico/S9294bfda75/20211,3058.6%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S9294bfda75/20211,1207.4%UnknownRecorded
FXMmexico/S9294bfda75/20214232.8%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/S9294bfda75/20213612.4%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/S9294bfda75/20212581.7%UnknownRecorded
CAND_IND12mexico/S9294bfda75/20212281.5%UnknownRecorded
PESmexico/S9294bfda75/20212121.4%UnknownRecorded
QImexico/S9294bfda75/20212031.3%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S9294bfda75/20211731.1%UnknownRecorded

2018

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PAN_PRD_MC26.4%
  • PT24.1%
  • PANAL12.0%
  • CQ9.3%
  • PRI_PVEM8.4%
  • MORENA5.4%
  • ES4.6%
  • CAND_IND283.1%
  • CAND_IND141.7%
  • QI0.3%
Results for event-fcab1008f1497511728f20a2
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PAN_PRD_MCmexico/S31dd81f7c5/20183,77926.4%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S31dd81f7c5/20183,45424.1%UnknownRecorded
PANALmexico/S31dd81f7c5/20181,72012%UnknownRecorded
CQmexico/S31dd81f7c5/20181,3309.3%UnknownRecorded
PRI_PVEMmexico/S31dd81f7c5/20181,2008.4%UnknownRecorded
MORENAmexico/S31dd81f7c5/20187815.4%UnknownRecorded
ESmexico/S31dd81f7c5/20186614.6%UnknownRecorded
CAND_IND28mexico/S31dd81f7c5/20184403.1%UnknownRecorded
CAND_IND14mexico/S31dd81f7c5/20182411.7%UnknownRecorded
QImexico/S31dd81f7c5/2018360.3%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

52.110–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=15.128518971848226, oldest_gap=2.382348629233249, previous_gap=0.8750084135424387

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

56.36percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[30.905752753977968,1.0771113831089352,0.22031823745410037,0,46.034271725826194,13.090575275397796,0,8.671970624235007],[24.39254223598304,8.783738305176012,2.429831056067847,1.164434273406475,1.736555159184223,7.538534024365619,23.5175338224406,30.436831123376184],[0,0,0,25.318868201143527,0,0,5.724967013634364,68.9561647852221]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

62.67percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[30.905752753977968,1.0771113831089352,0.22031823745410037,0,46.034271725826194,13.090575275397796,0,8.671970624235007],[24.39254223598304,8.783738305176012,2.429831056067847,1.164434273406475,1.736555159184223,7.538534024365619,23.5175338224406,30.436831123376184],[0,0,0,25.318868201143527,0,0,5.724967013634364,68.9561647852221]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

59.52percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[30.905752753977968,1.0771113831089352,0.22031823745410037,0,46.034271725826194,13.090575275397796,0,8.671970624235007],[24.39254223598304,8.783738305176012,2.429831056067847,1.164434273406475,1.736555159184223,7.538534024365619,23.5175338224406,30.436831123376184],[0,0,0,25.318868201143527,0,0,5.724967013634364,68.9561647852221]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

No open research issues attached to this office.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “TOLIMAN — Municipal government.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/MX-M-22-18. Sources: mexico--url-3635e08ffbefd711526cbeea, mexico--S5dd300c79c, mexico--S9294bfda75, mexico--S31dd81f7c5.