Office briefing
EL ARENAL — Municipal government
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Mexico · EL ARENAL / JALISCO · municipal · Municipal governmentMX-M-14-9
Read the complete original research briefing
INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- EL ARENAL / JALISCO
- Next election
- 2027-06-06
- Linked upcoming event
- next-d9d166a47d9c7131d0dde0aa
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-06 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2024
Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- MC39.7%
- PAN_PRI_PRD36.9%
- PVEM_PT_MORENA_HAGAMOS_FUTURO21.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MC | mexico/S360629a33e/2024 | 4,515 | 39.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PAN_PRI_PRD | mexico/S360629a33e/2024 | 4,192 | 36.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PVEM_PT_MORENA_HAGAMOS_FUTURO | mexico/S360629a33e/2024 | 2,436 | 21.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
2021
Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- HAGAMOS22.9%
- PT20.9%
- MC13.9%
- PAN12.6%
- MORENA8.1%
- FUTURO7.1%
- FM6.1%
- PRI5.5%
- SOMOS1.5%
- PVEM0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAGAMOS | mexico/S8e64d4b083/2021 | 2,171 | 22.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PT | mexico/S8e64d4b083/2021 | 1,976 | 20.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MC | mexico/S8e64d4b083/2021 | 1,320 | 13.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PAN | mexico/S8e64d4b083/2021 | 1,195 | 12.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MORENA | mexico/S8e64d4b083/2021 | 766 | 8.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| FUTURO | mexico/S8e64d4b083/2021 | 669 | 7.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| FM | mexico/S8e64d4b083/2021 | 575 | 6.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PRI | mexico/S8e64d4b083/2021 | 522 | 5.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| SOMOS | mexico/S8e64d4b083/2021 | 145 | 1.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PVEM | mexico/S8e64d4b083/2021 | 24 | 0.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
2018
Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- MC128.6%
- PAN107.0%
- PANAL84.4%
- PRI46.6%
- PT_MORENA_ES22.6%
- PVEM9.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MC | mexico/Sf410af82e1/2018 | 2,951 | 128.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PAN | mexico/Sf410af82e1/2018 | 2,454 | 107% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PANAL | mexico/Sf410af82e1/2018 | 1,936 | 84.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PRI | mexico/Sf410af82e1/2018 | 1,068 | 46.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PT_MORENA_ES | mexico/Sf410af82e1/2018 | 518 | 22.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PVEM | mexico/Sf410af82e1/2018 | 216 | 9.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
WithheldUnknown0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=2.898680786143764, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=2.082665812239668
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility47.88percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,40.518711298573095,0,59.481288701426905],[12.763003310904624,5.575136174303108,0,21.104346897361957,0.25632809996795897,14.098045498237743,8.181138523977358,38.02200149524725],null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,40.518711298573095,0,59.481288701426905],[12.763003310904624,5.575136174303108,0,21.104346897361957,0.25632809996795897,14.098045498237743,8.181138523977358,38.02200149524725],null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,40.518711298573095,0,59.481288701426905],[12.763003310904624,5.575136174303108,0,21.104346897361957,0.25632809996795897,14.098045498237743,8.181138523977358,38.02200149524725],null]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Reconciliation required: {"id": "MX-M-14-9", "year": 2018, "issue": "Reconciliation required", "total_delta": 6902.0, "duplicate_actor": false, "segments": 1}
Sources
- Mexico: https://sicee-api.ine.mx/api/v1/local/cards/getTarjOnceTablasamunicipiosLoc · rights unknown
- Mexico: mx_returns_AYUN_14_9_2024.json · rights unknown
- Mexico: mx_returns_AYUN_14_9_2021.json · rights unknown
- Mexico: mx_returns_AYUN_14_9_2018.json · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “EL ARENAL — Municipal government.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/MX-M-14-9. Sources: mexico--url-3635e08ffbefd711526cbeea, mexico--S360629a33e, mexico--S8e64d4b083, mexico--Sf410af82e1.