Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Center forDigital DemocracyElection database
Back to the Center

Office briefing

GUACHINANGO — Municipal government

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Mexico · GUACHINANGO / JALISCO · municipal · Municipal governmentMX-M-14-40

Read the complete original research briefing

INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
GUACHINANGO / JALISCO
Next election
2027-06-06
Linked upcoming event
next-968653996b5f5560a0e0d4cf
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-06 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2024

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • HAGAMOS30.0%
  • MC28.1%
  • PT11.5%
  • MORENA9.2%
  • FUTURO8.2%
  • PVEM7.9%
  • PAN_PRI_PRD1.2%
Results for event-1b4f185725edbedfe8061de2
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
HAGAMOSmexico/S0167423e49/202481430%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S0167423e49/202476128.1%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S0167423e49/202431311.5%UnknownRecorded
MORENAmexico/S0167423e49/20242499.2%UnknownRecorded
FUTUROmexico/S0167423e49/20242238.2%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/S0167423e49/20242137.9%UnknownRecorded
PAN_PRI_PRDmexico/S0167423e49/2024331.2%UnknownRecorded

2021

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • HAGAMOS32.7%
  • MC27.3%
  • FUTURO18.9%
  • MORENA9.9%
  • PT6.2%
  • PRI1.4%
  • PAN0.7%
Results for event-971cfb526c66a50c5b1bfd67
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
HAGAMOSmexico/S67343241f2/202181032.7%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S67343241f2/202167627.3%UnknownRecorded
FUTUROmexico/S67343241f2/202146718.9%UnknownRecorded
MORENAmexico/S67343241f2/20212469.9%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S67343241f2/20211546.2%UnknownRecorded
PRImexico/S67343241f2/2021341.4%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/S67343241f2/2021170.7%UnknownRecorded

2018

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PVEM7.6%
  • PRI6.5%
  • MC6.0%
  • PAN2.4%
  • PRD1.7%
  • PANAL0.1%
Results for event-c9d10cd7553797a7da192557
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PVEMmexico/S4a1916c7c9/20187637.6%UnknownRecorded
PRImexico/S4a1916c7c9/20186486.5%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S4a1916c7c9/20186026%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/S4a1916c7c9/20182382.4%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/S4a1916c7c9/20181691.7%UnknownRecorded
PANALmexico/S4a1916c7c9/201890.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=2.0337682271680713, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=5.574043261231282

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

14.86percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,12.010744435917115,8.17344589409056,29.20184190330008,9.554873369148119,41.05909439754413],[0.7071547420965059,1.4143094841930117,0,6.405990016638935,0,28.119800332778702,10.232945091514143,53.1198003327787],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,12.010744435917115,8.17344589409056,29.20184190330008,9.554873369148119,41.05909439754413],[0.7071547420965059,1.4143094841930117,0,6.405990016638935,0,28.119800332778702,10.232945091514143,53.1198003327787],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,12.010744435917115,8.17344589409056,29.20184190330008,9.554873369148119,41.05909439754413],[0.7071547420965059,1.4143094841930117,0,6.405990016638935,0,28.119800332778702,10.232945091514143,53.1198003327787],null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

  • other · open

    Reconciliation required: {"id": "MX-M-14-40", "year": 2018, "issue": "Reconciliation required", "total_delta": -7257.0, "duplicate_actor": false, "segments": 1}

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “GUACHINANGO — Municipal government.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/MX-M-14-40. Sources: mexico--url-3635e08ffbefd711526cbeea, mexico--S0167423e49, mexico--S67343241f2, mexico--S4a1916c7c9.