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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

TONALA — Municipal government

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Mexico · TONALA / JALISCO · municipal · Municipal governmentMX-M-14-102

Read the complete original research briefing

INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
TONALA / JALISCO
Next election
2027-06-06
Linked upcoming event
next-4e445c5a5621f6d4f7d53e19
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-06 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2024

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MORENA38.7%
  • MC24.5%
  • PAN_PRI_PRD20.3%
  • CAND_IND23.5%
  • PVEM3.2%
  • HAGAMOS2.1%
  • FUTURO2.0%
  • PT1.4%
Results for event-44fba669a71cf1b75443744e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MORENAmexico/S750474703e/202474,32838.7%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S750474703e/202447,07524.5%UnknownRecorded
PAN_PRI_PRDmexico/S750474703e/202438,96420.3%UnknownRecorded
CAND_IND2mexico/S750474703e/20246,7383.5%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/S750474703e/20246,1033.2%UnknownRecorded
HAGAMOSmexico/S750474703e/20244,0342.1%UnknownRecorded
FUTUROmexico/S750474703e/20243,9232%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S750474703e/20242,6951.4%UnknownRecorded

2021

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MORENA26.2%
  • MC21.5%
  • PRI21.4%
  • PAN6.7%
  • HAGAMOS5.8%
  • PVEM4.5%
  • FUTURO3.2%
  • PT2.9%
  • CAND_IND31.9%
  • PES1.3%
  • FM0.8%
  • RSP0.5%
  • PRD0.5%
  • SOMOS0.3%
Results for event-ae89a8340293c60d3fecc657
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MORENAmexico/S96d0fa1903/202135,27026.2%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S96d0fa1903/202129,04721.5%UnknownRecorded
PRImexico/S96d0fa1903/202128,84721.4%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/S96d0fa1903/20218,9966.7%UnknownRecorded
HAGAMOSmexico/S96d0fa1903/20217,8025.8%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/S96d0fa1903/20216,0514.5%UnknownRecorded
FUTUROmexico/S96d0fa1903/20214,2773.2%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S96d0fa1903/20213,9472.9%UnknownRecorded
CAND_IND3mexico/S96d0fa1903/20212,5701.9%UnknownRecorded
PESmexico/S96d0fa1903/20211,7201.3%UnknownRecorded
FMmexico/S96d0fa1903/20211,1020.8%UnknownRecorded
RSPmexico/S96d0fa1903/20216900.5%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/S96d0fa1903/20216660.5%UnknownRecorded
SOMOSmexico/S96d0fa1903/20214280.3%UnknownRecorded

2018

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PAN_PRD_MC39.1%
  • PT_MORENA_ES29.1%
  • PRI18.8%
  • PANAL4.4%
  • PVEM3.9%
  • CAND_IND342.6%
Results for event-66fc10df2bc9443e40426d29
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PAN_PRD_MCmexico/Se2650152d1/201865,09939.1%UnknownRecorded
PT_MORENA_ESmexico/Se2650152d1/201848,40229.1%UnknownRecorded
PRImexico/Se2650152d1/201831,28018.8%UnknownRecorded
PANALmexico/Se2650152d1/20187,3244.4%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/Se2650152d1/20186,4233.9%UnknownRecorded
CAND_IND34mexico/Se2650152d1/20184,3272.6%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

43.30–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=14.822691178070269, oldest_gap=10.252678763317064, previous_gap=4.735452352506982

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

32.13percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,1.465789187425215,3.319373436310236,25.603720221907974,40.42641139997824,29.184705754378335],[6.845593662727432,21.951405112127414,0.5067991751196609,3.0035080243202725,4.604567280253856,22.103597056607793,26.839049409114775,14.145480279728796],[0,19.207270271100057,0,0,3.9439992631481995,0,0,76.84873046575174]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

62.7percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,1.465789187425215,3.319373436310236,25.603720221907974,40.42641139997824,29.184705754378335],[6.845593662727432,21.951405112127414,0.5067991751196609,3.0035080243202725,4.604567280253856,22.103597056607793,26.839049409114775,14.145480279728796],[0,19.207270271100057,0,0,3.9439992631481995,0,0,76.84873046575174]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

47.41percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,1.465789187425215,3.319373436310236,25.603720221907974,40.42641139997824,29.184705754378335],[6.845593662727432,21.951405112127414,0.5067991751196609,3.0035080243202725,4.604567280253856,22.103597056607793,26.839049409114775,14.145480279728796],[0,19.207270271100057,0,0,3.9439992631481995,0,0,76.84873046575174]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

No open research issues attached to this office.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “TONALA — Municipal government.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/MX-M-14-102. Sources: mexico--url-3635e08ffbefd711526cbeea, mexico--S750474703e, mexico--S96d0fa1903, mexico--Se2650152d1.