Office briefing
TOLCAYUCA — Municipal government
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Mexico · TOLCAYUCA / HIDALGO · municipal · Municipal governmentMX-M-13-74
Read the complete original research briefing
INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- TOLCAYUCA / HIDALGO
- Next election
- 2027-06-06
- Linked upcoming event
- next-9f9324b3ce46c8d980208f7b
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-06 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2024
Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- C_MORENA_NAH59.9%
- PRI19.3%
- PT10.8%
- PVEM5.2%
- PRD1.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C_MORENA_NAH | mexico/S595ee1bc8f/2024 | 5,524 | 59.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PRI | mexico/S595ee1bc8f/2024 | 1,781 | 19.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PT | mexico/S595ee1bc8f/2024 | 992 | 10.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PVEM | mexico/S595ee1bc8f/2024 | 484 | 5.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PRD | mexico/S595ee1bc8f/2024 | 145 | 1.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
2020
Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- PRI31.6%
- ESH22.1%
- PANALH9.2%
- MC8.5%
- MORENA7.9%
- MAS_X_HIDALGO7.5%
- PODEMOS3.6%
- PAN_PRD3.6%
- PT3.4%
- PVEM1.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRI | mexico/S00923ea680/2020 | 2,411 | 31.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| ESH | mexico/S00923ea680/2020 | 1,686 | 22.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PANALH | mexico/S00923ea680/2020 | 704 | 9.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MC | mexico/S00923ea680/2020 | 651 | 8.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MORENA | mexico/S00923ea680/2020 | 600 | 7.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MAS_X_HIDALGO | mexico/S00923ea680/2020 | 569 | 7.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PODEMOS | mexico/S00923ea680/2020 | 273 | 3.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PAN_PRD | mexico/S00923ea680/2020 | 272 | 3.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PT | mexico/S00923ea680/2020 | 259 | 3.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PVEM | mexico/S00923ea680/2020 | 100 | 1.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
2016
Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- PANAL23.8%
- PRI19.0%
- PRD14.8%
- PAN14.6%
- PVEM11.7%
- MC7.3%
- MORENA3.7%
- ES3.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANAL | mexico/Sc357d88403/2016 | 1,616 | 23.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PRI | mexico/Sc357d88403/2016 | 1,289 | 19% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PRD | mexico/Sc357d88403/2016 | 1,001 | 14.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PAN | mexico/Sc357d88403/2016 | 991 | 14.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PVEM | mexico/Sc357d88403/2016 | 792 | 11.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MC | mexico/Sc357d88403/2016 | 496 | 7.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MORENA | mexico/Sc357d88403/2016 | 250 | 3.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| ES | mexico/Sc357d88403/2016 | 242 | 3.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=41.9336768989469, oldest_gap=4.897409016025161, previous_gap=9.63455149501661
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility28.71percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,19.95294644857719,1.624467846739861,11.113600717006499,5.4223616401523635,0,0,61.886623347524086],[0,32.03986710963455,0,3.441860465116279,1.3289036544850499,8.651162790697674,7.973421926910299,46.564784053156146],[14.841994907892767,19.305077130447806,14.99176276771005,0,11.86161449752883,7.428485846937248,3.7441964954320803,27.82686835405122]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility40.37percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,19.95294644857719,1.624467846739861,11.113600717006499,5.4223616401523635,0,0,61.886623347524086],[0,32.03986710963455,0,3.441860465116279,1.3289036544850499,8.651162790697674,7.973421926910299,46.564784053156146],[14.841994907892767,19.305077130447806,14.99176276771005,0,11.86161449752883,7.428485846937248,3.7441964954320803,27.82686835405122]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility34.54percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,19.95294644857719,1.624467846739861,11.113600717006499,5.4223616401523635,0,0,61.886623347524086],[0,32.03986710963455,0,3.441860465116279,1.3289036544850499,8.651162790697674,7.973421926910299,46.564784053156146],[14.841994907892767,19.305077130447806,14.99176276771005,0,11.86161449752883,7.428485846937248,3.7441964954320803,27.82686835405122]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
No open research issues attached to this office.
Sources
- Mexico: https://sicee-api.ine.mx/api/v1/local/cards/getTarjOnceTablasamunicipiosLoc · rights unknown
- Mexico: mx_returns_AYUN_13_74_2024.json · rights unknown
- Mexico: mx_returns_AYUN_13_74_2020.json · rights unknown
- Mexico: mx_returns_AYUN_13_74_2016.json · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “TOLCAYUCA — Municipal government.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/MX-M-13-74. Sources: mexico--url-3635e08ffbefd711526cbeea, mexico--S595ee1bc8f, mexico--S00923ea680, mexico--Sc357d88403.