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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

AJACUBA — Municipal government

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Mexico · AJACUBA / HIDALGO · municipal · Municipal governmentMX-M-13-5

Read the complete original research briefing

INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
AJACUBA / HIDALGO
Next election
2027-06-06
Linked upcoming event
next-9d2ee7f9eb1e771721e39efc
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-06 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2024

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • C_MORENA_NAH34.9%
  • PVEM34.5%
  • MC21.1%
  • PT3.1%
  • PRI2.6%
  • PRD0.2%
Results for event-1e839c9effe70b7f4de8fbb5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
C_MORENA_NAHmexico/S3b9a341cff/20243,53734.9%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/S3b9a341cff/20243,49434.5%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S3b9a341cff/20242,14121.1%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S3b9a341cff/20243173.1%UnknownRecorded
PRImexico/S3b9a341cff/20242602.6%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/S3b9a341cff/2024240.2%UnknownRecorded

2020

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PRI20.3%
  • PAN18.6%
  • PANALH14.7%
  • PVEM12.1%
  • PT12.0%
  • MORENA8.8%
  • PRD6.8%
  • ESH1.6%
  • MAS_X_HIDALGO1.5%
  • PODEMOS1.4%
  • MC0.7%
Results for event-f8590473a2b9aadc76bceaf3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PRImexico/S6a817689e2/20201,87620.3%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/S6a817689e2/20201,72518.6%UnknownRecorded
PANALHmexico/S6a817689e2/20201,35714.7%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/S6a817689e2/20201,11912.1%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S6a817689e2/20201,10912%UnknownRecorded
MORENAmexico/S6a817689e2/20208188.8%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/S6a817689e2/20206326.8%UnknownRecorded
ESHmexico/S6a817689e2/20201471.6%UnknownRecorded
MAS_X_HIDALGOmexico/S6a817689e2/20201351.5%UnknownRecorded
PODEMOSmexico/S6a817689e2/20201281.4%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S6a817689e2/2020680.7%UnknownRecorded

2016

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PVEM30.5%
  • PRD21.4%
  • PRI16.7%
  • PT14.9%
  • PAN5.3%
  • MORENA4.2%
  • PANAL2.2%
  • ES1.9%
  • MC0.3%
Results for event-015414099a8266db11712562
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PVEMmexico/S1f95d78303/20162,73430.5%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/S1f95d78303/20161,91721.4%UnknownRecorded
PRImexico/S1f95d78303/20161,49516.7%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S1f95d78303/20161,33714.9%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/S1f95d78303/20164785.3%UnknownRecorded
MORENAmexico/S1f95d78303/20163744.2%UnknownRecorded
PANALmexico/S1f95d78303/20161952.2%UnknownRecorded
ESmexico/S1f95d78303/20161741.9%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S1f95d78303/2016280.3%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

91.520–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.43998772127289953, oldest_gap=9.356390288593676, previous_gap=1.656791748957648

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

61.44percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,2.660390872812852,0.2455745421058017,3.2436304103141307,35.75156042156963,21.90729561035506,0,36.19154814284253],[18.92692560895326,20.583717357910906,6.934386657888962,12.16809304366908,12.27781435154707,0.7461048935703314,8.975202984419575,19.387755102040817],[5.474118185982593,17.12093449381585,21.953733394411362,15.311497938616583,31.31012368300504,0.320659642693541,4.283096655978012,4.2258360054970225]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

37.2percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,2.660390872812852,0.2455745421058017,3.2436304103141307,35.75156042156963,21.90729561035506,0,36.19154814284253],[18.92692560895326,20.583717357910906,6.934386657888962,12.16809304366908,12.27781435154707,0.7461048935703314,8.975202984419575,19.387755102040817],[5.474118185982593,17.12093449381585,21.953733394411362,15.311497938616583,31.31012368300504,0.320659642693541,4.283096655978012,4.2258360054970225]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

49.32percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,2.660390872812852,0.2455745421058017,3.2436304103141307,35.75156042156963,21.90729561035506,0,36.19154814284253],[18.92692560895326,20.583717357910906,6.934386657888962,12.16809304366908,12.27781435154707,0.7461048935703314,8.975202984419575,19.387755102040817],[5.474118185982593,17.12093449381585,21.953733394411362,15.311497938616583,31.31012368300504,0.320659642693541,4.283096655978012,4.2258360054970225]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

No open research issues attached to this office.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “AJACUBA — Municipal government.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/MX-M-13-5. Sources: mexico--url-3635e08ffbefd711526cbeea, mexico--S3b9a341cff, mexico--S6a817689e2, mexico--S1f95d78303.