Office briefing

LA UNION DE ISIDORO MONTES DE OCA — Municipal government

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Mexico · LA UNION DE ISIDORO MONTES DE OCA / GUERRERO · municipal · Municipal governmentMX-M-12-69

Read the complete original research briefing

INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: LA UNION DE ISIDORO MONTES DE OCA / GUERRERO
Next election: 2027-06-06
Linked upcoming event: next-eed44b79c345ad41e31c94b4
Registry qualification: Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-06 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2024

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

PRD46.7%
PT_PVEM_MORENA35.3%
PRI14.8%
PAC0.2%
FXMG0.2%

Results for event-e30eba5209933c2d961521cf
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
PRD	mexico/Sb876f16477/2024	6,521	46.7%	Unknown	Recorded
PT_PVEM_MORENA	mexico/Sb876f16477/2024	4,932	35.3%	Unknown	Recorded
PRI	mexico/Sb876f16477/2024	2,065	14.8%	Unknown	Recorded
PAC	mexico/Sb876f16477/2024	25	0.2%	Unknown	Recorded
FXMG	mexico/Sb876f16477/2024	21	0.2%	Unknown	Recorded

2021

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

PRD59.3%
MORENA35.2%
PRI1.1%
PT_PVEM0.7%
FXP0.6%
PES0.5%
MC0.3%

Results for event-cd0bad3412befbb5e809b696
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
PRD	mexico/Sca98d688b0/2021	8,910	59.3%	Unknown	Recorded
MORENA	mexico/Sca98d688b0/2021	5,289	35.2%	Unknown	Recorded
PRI	mexico/Sca98d688b0/2021	159	1.1%	Unknown	Recorded
PT_PVEM	mexico/Sca98d688b0/2021	110	0.7%	Unknown	Recorded
FXP	mexico/Sca98d688b0/2021	96	0.6%	Unknown	Recorded
PES	mexico/Sca98d688b0/2021	73	0.5%	Unknown	Recorded
MC	mexico/Sca98d688b0/2021	49	0.3%	Unknown	Recorded

2018

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

PAN_PRD_MC51.7%
PVEM23.2%
PRI13.2%
MORENA_ES4.4%
PT0.3%
PANAL0.2%
PPG0.1%

Results for event-87984ca1cfb0a9705768b997
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
PAN_PRD_MC	mexico/Sec73d442e9/2018	8,192	51.7%	Unknown	Recorded
PVEM	mexico/Sec73d442e9/2018	3,672	23.2%	Unknown	Recorded
PRI	mexico/Sec73d442e9/2018	2,087	13.2%	Unknown	Recorded
MORENA_ES	mexico/Sec73d442e9/2018	697	4.4%	Unknown	Recorded
PT	mexico/Sec73d442e9/2018	42	0.3%	Unknown	Recorded
PANAL	mexico/Sec73d442e9/2018	31	0.2%	Unknown	Recorded
PPG	mexico/Sec73d442e9/2018	8	0.1%	Unknown	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

12.530–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.714833382483043, oldest_gap=30.68775884309865, previous_gap=24.656135094647965

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

48.94percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,15.2241226776762,48.07578885284577,0,0,0,0,36.700088469478025],[0,1.0826637614054202,60.670025874982976,0,0,0.3336510962821735,36.01389078033501,1.8997684869944165],[0,14.169325819811256,0,0.28515174146242106,24.930409396428814,0,0,60.6151130422975]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

97.02percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,15.2241226776762,48.07578885284577,0,0,0,0,36.700088469478025],[0,1.0826637614054202,60.670025874982976,0,0,0.3336510962821735,36.01389078033501,1.8997684869944165],[0,14.169325819811256,0,0.28515174146242106,24.930409396428814,0,0,60.6151130422975]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

72.98percentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,15.2241226776762,48.07578885284577,0,0,0,0,36.700088469478025],[0,1.0826637614054202,60.670025874982976,0,0,0.3336510962821735,36.01389078033501,1.8997684869944165],[0,14.169325819811256,0,0.28515174146242106,24.930409396428814,0,0,60.6151130422975]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

No open research issues attached to this office.

Sources

Mexico: https://sicee-api.ine.mx/api/v1/local/cards/getTarjOnceTablasamunicipiosLoc · rights unknown
Mexico: mx_returns_AYUN_12_69_2024.json · rights unknown
Mexico: mx_returns_AYUN_12_69_2021.json · rights unknown
Mexico: mx_returns_AYUN_12_69_2018.json · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “LA UNION DE ISIDORO MONTES DE OCA — Municipal government.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/MX-M-12-69. Sources: mexico--url-3635e08ffbefd711526cbeea, mexico--Sb876f16477, mexico--Sca98d688b0, mexico--Sec73d442e9.