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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

JARAL DEL PROGRESO — Municipal government

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Mexico · JARAL DEL PROGRESO / GUANAJUATO · municipal · Municipal governmentMX-M-11-18

Read the complete original research briefing

INE result distributions kept separate. Certified seats, supplementary elections, coalition and boundary audit remain.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
JARAL DEL PROGRESO / GUANAJUATO
Next election
2027-06-06
Linked upcoming event
next-6a77ba08778002af6ff08ca6
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-06 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2024

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MORENA43.4%
  • PAN29.7%
  • MC16.6%
  • PVEM2.8%
  • PRI2.2%
  • PT1.6%
  • PRD0.6%
Results for event-1c49bc964b8381318a49838a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MORENAmexico/Sbcc3f49551/20248,27243.4%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/Sbcc3f49551/20245,66729.7%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/Sbcc3f49551/20243,16916.6%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/Sbcc3f49551/20245392.8%UnknownRecorded
PRImexico/Sbcc3f49551/20244262.2%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/Sbcc3f49551/20243001.6%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/Sbcc3f49551/20241190.6%UnknownRecorded

2021

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • RSP28.2%
  • CAND_IND426.9%
  • NA_GTO15.1%
  • PAN11.0%
  • MORENA7.5%
  • PRI_PRD3.5%
  • PES1.5%
  • PT1.3%
  • MC1.0%
  • PVEM0.9%
  • FXM0.0%
Results for event-1d07b39bb858296f42cc6703
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
RSPmexico/S47511ddde5/20214,87628.2%UnknownRecorded
CAND_IND4mexico/S47511ddde5/20214,64826.9%UnknownRecorded
NA_GTOmexico/S47511ddde5/20212,60315.1%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/S47511ddde5/20211,89511%UnknownRecorded
MORENAmexico/S47511ddde5/20211,3017.5%UnknownRecorded
PRI_PRDmexico/S47511ddde5/20216033.5%UnknownRecorded
PESmexico/S47511ddde5/20212601.5%UnknownRecorded
PTmexico/S47511ddde5/20212301.3%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S47511ddde5/20211771%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/S47511ddde5/20211470.9%UnknownRecorded
FXMmexico/S47511ddde5/20210 (recorded zero)0% (recorded zero)UnknownRecorded

2018

Special · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PRI39.2%
  • PAN37.7%
  • PANAL8.0%
  • MORENA_PT_ES5.9%
  • PVEM4.5%
  • PRD1.4%
  • MC0.7%
Results for event-881a0f23fe75827a63d8c033
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PRImexico/S464c5aed19/20187,26339.2%UnknownRecorded
PANmexico/S464c5aed19/20186,98037.7%UnknownRecorded
PANALmexico/S464c5aed19/20181,4758%UnknownRecorded
MORENA_PT_ESmexico/S464c5aed19/20181,1035.9%UnknownRecorded
PVEMmexico/S464c5aed19/20188254.5%UnknownRecorded
PRDmexico/S464c5aed19/20182611.4%UnknownRecorded
MCmexico/S464c5aed19/20181250.7%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

54.910–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=14.087172831494698, oldest_gap=1.5694321206743567, previous_gap=1.3620071684587813

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

77.6percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[30.64568462037638,2.3036988968202468,0.6435215228206792,1.6223231667748215,2.9147739563054293,17.137140385031365,44.73285745187108,0],[11.320191158900837,0,0,1.3739545997610514,0.8781362007168458,1.0573476702508962,7.771804062126643,77.59856630824373],[38.70896184560781,40.27839396628217,1.4474267968056789,0,4.575199645075421,0.6932120674356699,0,14.296805678793255]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

72.81percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[30.64568462037638,2.3036988968202468,0.6435215228206792,1.6223231667748215,2.9147739563054293,17.137140385031365,44.73285745187108,0],[11.320191158900837,0,0,1.3739545997610514,0.8781362007168458,1.0573476702508962,7.771804062126643,77.59856630824373],[38.70896184560781,40.27839396628217,1.4474267968056789,0,4.575199645075421,0.6932120674356699,0,14.296805678793255]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

75.21percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Seven exact standalone INE party labels. Joint coalition combinations, independents and other parties remain Other, without allocating coalition votes. This coarse grouped comparison can conceal coalition-member shifts and requires the stated geographic/event review. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PAN","PRI","PRD","PT","PVEM","MC","MORENA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[30.64568462037638,2.3036988968202468,0.6435215228206792,1.6223231667748215,2.9147739563054293,17.137140385031365,44.73285745187108,0],[11.320191158900837,0,0,1.3739545997610514,0.8781362007168458,1.0573476702508962,7.771804062126643,77.59856630824373],[38.70896184560781,40.27839396628217,1.4474267968056789,0,4.575199645075421,0.6932120674356699,0,14.296805678793255]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

No open research issues attached to this office.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “JARAL DEL PROGRESO — Municipal government.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/MX-M-11-18. Sources: mexico--url-3635e08ffbefd711526cbeea, mexico--Sbcc3f49551, mexico--S47511ddde5, mexico--S464c5aed19.