Office briefing
San Pablo La Laguna — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · San Pablo La Laguna / Sololá · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-07-15
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- San Pablo La Laguna / Sololá
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-6ed0f26760fbcc259eb37fd6
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- VAMOS41.3%
- UNE31.9%
- CABAL18.3%
- AZUL8.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAMOS · GASPAR IXCAYA CULUM | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,859 | 41.3% | 5 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,438 | 31.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 824 | 18.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| AZUL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 384 | 8.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE41.0%
- VAMOS39.2%
- SEMILLA8.8%
- CREO4.3%
- VIVA3.9%
- FUERZA1.8%
- FCN-NACION0.5%
- WINAQ0.4%
- PHG0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · JUAN UJPAN PIY | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,812 | 41% | 5 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,733 | 39.2% | 2 | Recorded |
| SEMILLA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 388 | 8.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 188 | 4.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VIVA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 174 | 3.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 80 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 21 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| WINAQ | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 19 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PHG | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 7 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PP38.7%
- UNE30.3%
- LIDER28.3%
- WINAQ1.1%
- UCN1.0%
- CONVERGENCIA0.3%
- CREO- Unionista0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP · Sebastian Ixcayá Chipir | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,641 | 38.7% | 5 | Recorded |
| UNE · Juan Ujpan Piy | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,283 | 30.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| LIDER · Gaspar Ixcaya Culum | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,201 | 28.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| WINAQ · Romeo Ramiro Ratzam Leja | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 45 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UCN · Marcos Poron Quiacain | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 44 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CONVERGENCIA · Paulina Culum Xajil | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 13 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO- Unionista · Andres Ixcaya Perez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 11 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI65.060–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=9.34517203107658, oldest_gap=8.44738084001888, previous_gap=1.7865219357756672
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility26.49percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[31.920088790233073,41.26526082130965,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.814650388457274],[40.976933514246944,39.19041157847128,0,0,3.9348710990502034,0,0,4.251469923111714,0.47489823609226595,0,8.77431026684758,2.397105382180009],[30.273714016045304,0,0,1.0382255781028786,0,28.338839075035395,38.721094856064184,0,0,0,0,1.6281264747522415]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility68.1percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[31.920088790233073,41.26526082130965,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.814650388457274],[40.976933514246944,39.19041157847128,0,0,3.9348710990502034,0,0,4.251469923111714,0.47489823609226595,0,8.77431026684758,2.397105382180009],[30.273714016045304,0,0,1.0382255781028786,0,28.338839075035395,38.721094856064184,0,0,0,0,1.6281264747522415]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility47.3percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[31.920088790233073,41.26526082130965,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.814650388457274],[40.976933514246944,39.19041157847128,0,0,3.9348710990502034,0,0,4.251469923111714,0.47489823609226595,0,8.77431026684758,2.397105382180009],[30.273714016045304,0,0,1.0382255781028786,0,28.338839075035395,38.721094856064184,0,0,0,0,1.6281264747522415]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Ixcayá Chipir | Alcalde | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Pedro Ujpan Quiacaín | Síndico I | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Nazario Esteban Quiacain Leja | Síndico II | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Diego Ixcayá Ixcayá | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Wilson Culúm Matzar | Concejal 1 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Diego Culúm Ixcayá | Concejal 2 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Manuel Ixcayá Ixcayá | Concejal 3 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Pedro Xajil Ajquivijay | Concejal 4 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Domingo Ujpan Xajil | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Mirna Matilde Ujpan Ratzam | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| JUAN UJPAN PIY | ALCALDE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JORGE UJPAN XAJIL | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JUAN IXCAYA UJPÁN | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| MARCOS YAC QUIACAIN | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| SERGIO OSWALDO PETZEY XELEMANGO | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| LUCIA CUC IXCAYÁ | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| OSCAR MÉNDEZ GÓMEZ | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| FELIPE PORON QUIACAIN | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| DIEGO QUIACAIN IXCAYÁ | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| ABRAHAM IXCAYÁ GUAJÁN | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| GASPAR IXCAYA CULUM | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| PABLO UJPAN IXCAYA | SINDICO I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| FELIPE QUIACAIN RATZAM | SINDICO II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| VICENTE CUC XAJIL | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| ANTONIO LEJA QUIACAIN | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| NAZARIO IGNACIO PORON PETZEY | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| FELIPE PORON QUIACAIN | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| DIEGO MANUEL SOJVEN IXCAYA | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| GABRIEL QUIACAN PETZEY | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| NICOLAS CUC PORON | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “San Pablo La Laguna — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-07-15. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.