Office briefing
San Antonio Palopó — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · San Antonio Palopó / Sololá · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-07-12
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- San Antonio Palopó / Sololá
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-6d502686c0bb2626d8747858
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- VAMOS38.2%
- UNE27.2%
- VALOR UNIONISTA22.4%
- VICTORIA7.0%
- CABAL5.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAMOS · RUFINO ELFIDIO CANIZ VICENTE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 2,204 | 38.2% | 5 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,568 | 27.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| VALOR UNIONISTA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,294 | 22.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| VICTORIA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 402 | 7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 302 | 5.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- CREO35.8%
- VAMOS20.9%
- FUERZA10.9%
- UNIONISTA9.6%
- PC9.3%
- LIBRE6.2%
- UNE3.7%
- UCN2.6%
- WINAQ1.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CREO · ANIBAL BELTRAN CARRILLO MOTTA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,861 | 35.8% | 6 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,087 | 20.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| FUERZA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 569 | 10.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIONISTA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 499 | 9.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PC | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 483 | 9.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| LIBRE | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 321 | 6.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 193 | 3.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UCN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 137 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| WINAQ | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 55 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- LIDER29.1%
- PP21.8%
- UNE20.6%
- UCN12.9%
- CREO- Unionista10.9%
- VIVA3.4%
- PRI1.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIDER · Francisco Calabay Diaz | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,567 | 29.1% | 5 | Recorded |
| PP · Mateo Martín Bixcul | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,175 | 21.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| UNE · Andres Cumez Pérez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,112 | 20.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| UCN · Anibal Beltran Carrillo Motta | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 694 | 12.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO- Unionista · Luis Pérez Pérez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 588 | 10.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VIVA · Nicolas Chaclan Vásquez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 185 | 3.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PRI · Pantaleon Pérez Cumez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 67 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI40.990–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.022530329289427, oldest_gap=7.275426874536006, previous_gap=14.870317002881844
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility47.97percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[27.175043327556327,38.197573656845755,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.62738301559792],[3.707973102785783,20.883765609990395,0,2.6320845341018253,0,0,0,35.75408261287224,0,9.586935638808837,0,27.43515850144092],[20.638455827765405,0,0,12.880475129918336,3.433556050482554,29.083147735708984,21.807720861172978,0,0,0,0,12.156644394951744]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility81.5percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[27.175043327556327,38.197573656845755,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.62738301559792],[3.707973102785783,20.883765609990395,0,2.6320845341018253,0,0,0,35.75408261287224,0,9.586935638808837,0,27.43515850144092],[20.638455827765405,0,0,12.880475129918336,3.433556050482554,29.083147735708984,21.807720861172978,0,0,0,0,12.156644394951744]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility64.74percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[27.175043327556327,38.197573656845755,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.62738301559792],[3.707973102785783,20.883765609990395,0,2.6320845341018253,0,0,0,35.75408261287224,0,9.586935638808837,0,27.43515850144092],[20.638455827765405,0,0,12.880475129918336,3.433556050482554,29.083147735708984,21.807720861172978,0,0,0,0,12.156644394951744]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Calabay Diaz | Alcalde | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Santos Diaz Martin | Síndico I | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Fernando Garcia Castro | Síndico II | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Domingo Iboy Tuy | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Gaspar Perez Sicay | Concejal 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Luis Sicajan Lopez | Concejal 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Pedro Jacinto Cumes Yaxón | Concejal 3 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Julian Leja Tax | Concejal 4 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Ramos Pérez Pérez | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Luciano Sicajan Pérez | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| ANIBAL BELTRAN CARRILLO MOTTA | ALCALDE | 2019 | CREO | unknown |
| LUCAS SÁNCHEZ SICAJÁN | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | CREO | unknown |
| ABELINO PÉREZ TAX | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | CREO | unknown |
| SANTOS VICTORIANO PEREZ QUISQUINÁ | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | CREO | unknown |
| VICTOR MANUEL MARTIN PÉREZ | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | CREO | unknown |
| VÍCTOR VICENTE TALÉ PÉREZ | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | CREO | unknown |
| SANTOS BARRENO JOJ | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | CREO | unknown |
| NAZARIO CALABAY PEREZ | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| FRANCISCO ANTONIO PÉREZ CÚMEZ | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | CREO | unknown |
| MAGDA CAROLINA CRUZ DE LEÓN DE AVILA | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| RUFINO ELFIDIO CANIZ VICENTE | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| SANTOS IRINEO SANCHEZ CUMEZ | SINDICO I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| CARLOS HUMBERTO SICAJAN TUY | SINDICO II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| MIGUEL PEREZ SICAY | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| IRIS EDITH ALVAREZ AVILA | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| NICOLAS SICAY PEREZ | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| VICTOR MANUEL MARTIN PEREZ | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | VALOR UNIONISTA | unknown |
| WILSON ENRIQUE BIXCUL MARTIN | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| NOE ARMANDO SOCOP DIAZ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| VILMA MARGARITA MORALES SOFIO | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “San Antonio Palopó — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-07-12. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.