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Office briefing

Santa Catarina Palopó — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Guatemala · Santa Catarina Palopó / Sololá · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-07-11

Read the complete original research briefing

Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Santa Catarina Palopó / Sololá
Next election
2027-06-27
Linked upcoming event
next-ab4e2f0081ca84142e8cd5d4
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-06-25

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • CABAL49.3%
  • UNE38.4%
  • VALOR UNIONISTA6.2%
  • U R N G - MAIZ4.5%
  • VAMOS1.0%
  • VICTORIA0.6%
Results for event-fc60b5c5f725c4bc39fcb69b
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
CABAL · ANTONIO TAX LÓPEZguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,29449.3%5Recorded
UNEguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,00838.4%2Recorded
VALOR UNIONISTAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231636.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
U R N G - MAIZguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231184.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VAMOSguatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023251%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VICTORIAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023150.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-06-16

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • VAMOS31.3%
  • FUERZA28.2%
  • UCN28.1%
  • PC7.5%
  • VIVA1.9%
  • FCN-NACION1.9%
  • BIEN1.2%
Results for event-d3d3714a5778c662437c00f0
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
VAMOS · CRUZ SAJVIN ORDÓÑEZguatemala/S6d250220e847/201971831.3%5Recorded
FUERZAguatemala/S6d250220e847/201964728.2%1Recorded
UCNguatemala/S6d250220e847/201964628.1%1Recorded
PCguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191737.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VIVAguatemala/S6d250220e847/2019431.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FCN-NACIONguatemala/S6d250220e847/2019431.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
BIENguatemala/S6d250220e847/2019271.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2015-10-25

Repeated / replacement · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • UNE34.1%
  • PP22.7%
  • TODOS22.5%
  • UCN11.1%
  • LIDER8.8%
  • CREO- Unionista0.9%
Results for event-c59c76f48af87c14f7294609
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNE · Rodolfo Joj Lópezguatemala/S6241581360d0/201562834.1%5Recorded
PP · Mariano López Nimacachiguatemala/S6241581360d0/201541922.7%1Recorded
TODOS · Cruz Sajvin Ordoñezguatemala/S6241581360d0/201541522.5%1Recorded
UCN · Antonio Tax Lopezguatemala/S6241581360d0/201520411.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
LIDER · Bentura Sajvin Sajvinguatemala/S6241581360d0/20151628.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CREO- Unionista · Miguel Sajvin Nimacachiguatemala/S6241581360d0/2015160.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

56.990–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=10.903545558520776, oldest_gap=11.334056399132319, previous_gap=3.0909882455376554

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

62.17percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[38.429279451010295,0.9531071292413267,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.61761341974838],[0,31.25816282107096,0,28.123639529821506,1.872006965607314,0,0,0,1.872006965607314,0,0,36.874183717892905],[34.05639913232104,0,22.50542299349241,11.062906724511931,0,8.785249457700651,22.72234273318872,0,0,0,0,0.8676789587852495]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

88.07percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[38.429279451010295,0.9531071292413267,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.61761341974838],[0,31.25816282107096,0,28.123639529821506,1.872006965607314,0,0,0,1.872006965607314,0,0,36.874183717892905],[34.05639913232104,0,22.50542299349241,11.062906724511931,0,8.785249457700651,22.72234273318872,0,0,0,0,0.8676789587852495]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

75.12percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[38.429279451010295,0.9531071292413267,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.61761341974838],[0,31.25816282107096,0,28.123639529821506,1.872006965607314,0,0,0,1.872006965607314,0,0,36.874183717892905],[34.05639913232104,0,22.50542299349241,11.062906724511931,0,8.785249457700651,22.72234273318872,0,0,0,0,0.8676789587852495]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

Officeholder observations
PersonRoleAs ofAffiliationPrincipal?
Rodolfo Joj LópezAlcalde2015UNEunknown
Juan Perez SajvinSíndico I2015UNEunknown
Cruz López OrdoñezSíndico II2015UNEunknown
Pablo Tax LópezSíndico Suplente2015UNEunknown
Pedro Sajvin GonzalezConcejal 12015UNEunknown
Francisco Sajvin GarcíaConcejal 22015UNEunknown
Lucas Martin CúmezConcejal 32015PPunknown
Jorge Mario Lopez CúmezConcejal 42015TODOSunknown
Bartolome Matzar NimacachiConcejal suplente 12015UNEunknown
Pedro Sajvin NimacachiConcejal suplente 22015PPunknown
CRUZ SAJVIN ORDÓÑEZALCALDE2019VAMOSunknown
ROSENDO SAJVIN COCOLAJAYSÍNDICO PRIMERO2019VAMOSunknown
CALIXTO CUMES TAXSÍNDICO SEGUNDO2019VAMOSunknown
RAUL LOPEZ PEREZSÍNDICO SUPLENTE2019VAMOSunknown
PEDRO GONZÁLEZ SAJVINCONCEJAL PRIMERO2019VAMOSunknown
CARLOS SAJVIN COTZALCONCEJAL SEGUNDO2019VAMOSunknown
LUIS ANTONIO CUMEZ Y CUMEZCONCEJAL TERCERO2019FUERZAunknown
AMADEO LOPEZ SAJVINCONCEJAL CUARTO2019UCNunknown
SANTIAGO BUC LOPEZPRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019VAMOSunknown
DEMECIO QUINO TOLSEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019FUERZAunknown
ANTONIO TAX LÓPEZALCALDE MUNICIPAL2023CABALunknown
SANTOS MARTIN NIMACACHISINDICO I2023CABALunknown
JUAN NIMACACHI SAJVINSINDICO II2023CABALunknown
MARIO XAJIL BUCCONCEJAL I2023CABALunknown
JORGE FELICIANO AJPUZ NIMACACHICONCEJAL II2023CABALunknown
BARTOLO NIMACACHI CUMESCONCEJAL III2023UNEunknown
FRANCISCO MATZAR NIMACACHICONCEJAL IV2023UNEunknown
DELFINO SAJVIN LÓPEZSINDICO SUPLENTE I2023CABALunknown
NICOLAS CUMES NIMACACHICONCEJAL SUPLENTE I2023CABALunknown
EDGAR RODOLFO NIMACACHICONCEJAL SUPLENTE II2023UNEunknown

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “Santa Catarina Palopó — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-07-11. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.