Office briefing
San Andrés Semetabaj — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · San Andrés Semetabaj / Sololá · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-07-09
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- San Andrés Semetabaj / Sololá
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-cde9e9db4354b6563c396f1e
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- VAMOS37.9%
- U R N G - MAIZ24.1%
- TODOS23.9%
- UNE11.5%
- VIVA2.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAMOS · BAIRON RICARDO TOBÍAS SANCHEZ | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 2,189 | 37.9% | 5 | Recorded |
| U R N G - MAIZ | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,390 | 24.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| TODOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,377 | 23.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 665 | 11.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VIVA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 148 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- URNG-MAIZ36.4%
- VAMOS30.1%
- FUERZA26.6%
- TODOS4.1%
- FCN-NACION2.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URNG-MAIZ · GASPAR CHUMIL MORALES | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,826 | 36.4% | 5 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,513 | 30.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| FUERZA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,335 | 26.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| TODOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 206 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 140 | 2.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- URNG MAIZ28.9%
- UNE28.0%
- LIDER26.3%
- PP6.6%
- CREO- Unionista5.8%
- TODOS2.5%
- UCN1.1%
- WINAQ0.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URNG MAIZ · Gaspar Chumil Morales | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,374 | 28.9% | 5 | Recorded |
| UNE · Bairon Ricardo Tobías Sánchez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,333 | 28% | 1 | Recorded |
| LIDER · Rodrigo Salomón Locon Sacuj | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,249 | 26.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| PP · José Rufino Cumes Coroxon | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 314 | 6.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO- Unionista · Juan Inocente Cuy Matzar | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 274 | 5.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS · Tomas Waldemar Morales Sacuj | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 119 | 2.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UCN · Eberi Alejandro López Castro | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 50 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| WINAQ · Pablo Muj Matzar | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 41 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI48.670–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=13.849887328826483, oldest_gap=0.862431636516618, previous_gap=6.235059760956176
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility41.66percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[11.527127751776737,37.944184434044026,23.868954758190327,0,2.565435950771364,0,0,0,0,0,0,24.094297105217542],[0,30.139442231075698,4.103585657370518,0,0,0,0,0,2.7888446215139444,0,0,62.96812749003984],[28.03954564577198,0,2.503155237694573,1.051745898190997,0,26.272612536811106,6.604964240639461,0,0,0,0,35.52797644089188]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility61.97percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[11.527127751776737,37.944184434044026,23.868954758190327,0,2.565435950771364,0,0,0,0,0,0,24.094297105217542],[0,30.139442231075698,4.103585657370518,0,0,0,0,0,2.7888446215139444,0,0,62.96812749003984],[28.03954564577198,0,2.503155237694573,1.051745898190997,0,26.272612536811106,6.604964240639461,0,0,0,0,35.52797644089188]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility51.82percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[11.527127751776737,37.944184434044026,23.868954758190327,0,2.565435950771364,0,0,0,0,0,0,24.094297105217542],[0,30.139442231075698,4.103585657370518,0,0,0,0,0,2.7888446215139444,0,0,62.96812749003984],[28.03954564577198,0,2.503155237694573,1.051745898190997,0,26.272612536811106,6.604964240639461,0,0,0,0,35.52797644089188]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaspar Chumil Morales | Alcalde | 2015 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| Gervacio Tohom Pacal | Síndico I | 2015 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| Pedro Tian Perez | Síndico II | 2015 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| Karla Rosmery Cuy Matzar Choc | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| César García Ajquijay | Concejal 1 | 2015 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| Rony Uwaldo Girón Estacuy | Concejal 2 | 2015 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| Jorge Leonel Morales Socon | Concejal 3 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Erwin Ixmucane Coxolca Tohom | Concejal 4 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Adalberto Julian Garcia Muj | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| Manuel Macario Mateo | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| GASPAR CHUMIL MORALES | ALCALDE | 2019 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| JUAN ISAÍAS MORALES PÉREZ | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| PEDRO TIÁN PÉREZ | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| TOMÁS SIS MORALES | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| ORLANDO MIGUEL MENDOZA CÚMES | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| GERARDO ZENÓN GIRÓN MORALES | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| EDGAR ALFREDO COJON MORALES | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| DELFINO LOCON SACUJ | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | FUERZA | unknown |
| SEBASTIANA MORALES TZOC DE MORALES | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | URNG-MAIZ | unknown |
| JOSE CHOM PEREZ | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| BAIRON RICARDO TOBÍAS SANCHEZ | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JACOB ARTEMIO CUMES MENDOZA | SINDICO I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| CARLOS AROLDO ORELLANA VELASQUEZ | SINDICO II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| CESAR DAVID SACUJ TIAN | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| ARTEMIO CUMES SACUJ | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| ORLANDO MIGUEL MENDOZA CUMES | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | U R N G - MAIZ | unknown |
| CESAR AMILCAR TOHOM MATZAR | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | TODOS | unknown |
| MARISELIA JUDITH CUMES GARCIA | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| LAURIANO JOSE MIGUEL MATZAR CHIROY | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| WALTER FRANCISCO MENDEZ MORALES | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | U R N G - MAIZ | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “San Andrés Semetabaj — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-07-09. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.