Office briefing
Nueva Santa Rosa — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · Nueva Santa Rosa / Santa Rosa · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-06-14
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Nueva Santa Rosa / Santa Rosa
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-acd65a4ee10b918420d57b7e
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- CABAL48.5%
- VAMOS24.0%
- UNE15.9%
- VALOR UNIONISTA5.4%
- TODOS2.3%
- AZUL1.9%
- PPN0.7%
- BIEN0.7%
- MI FAMILIA0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CABAL · JOSE ENRRIQUE ARREDONDO AMAYA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 6,453 | 48.5% | 6 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 3,194 | 24% | 1 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 2,119 | 15.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| VALOR UNIONISTA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 724 | 5.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 310 | 2.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| AZUL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 257 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PPN | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 98 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| BIEN | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 93 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MI FAMILIA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 50 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE54.9%
- UCN28.0%
- VALOR7.1%
- UNIONISTA2.8%
- CREO2.0%
- MLP2.0%
- PAN1.9%
- WINAQ0.7%
- FCN-NACION0.3%
- AVANZA0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · JOSE ENRRIQUE ARREDONDO AMAYA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 5,666 | 54.9% | 6 | Recorded |
| UCN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 2,889 | 28% | 2 | Recorded |
| VALOR | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 734 | 7.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIONISTA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 293 | 2.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 208 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MLP | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 206 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PAN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 192 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| WINAQ | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 74 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 32 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| AVANZA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 20 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- LIDER59.7%
- PP28.7%
- UCN3.1%
- UNE2.8%
- TODOS2.7%
- FCN NACION1.4%
- CREO- Unionista1.0%
- WINAQ-URNG- MAÍZ0.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIDER · Jose Enrrique Arredondo Amaya | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 7,401 | 59.7% | 7 | Recorded |
| PP · René Villalta Pérez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 3,558 | 28.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| UCN · Mynor Alexis Salazar García | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 388 | 3.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNE · Edgar Romeo Chuy Mijangos | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 349 | 2.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS · Ronald Calel De León | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 332 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN NACION · Vacante | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 175 | 1.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO- Unionista · Geronimo Sofio Cuc Ajiatas | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 124 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| WINAQ-URNG- MAÍZ · Reyna Isabel Pineda Villalta | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 72 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=24.507444728530608, oldest_gap=30.994435035083477, previous_gap=26.9245685476052
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility72.18percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[15.934727026620545,24.01864942096556,2.331177620694841,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.71544593171906],[54.93503975179368,0,0,28.01047120418848,0,0,0,2.0166763622261006,0.31025790188093855,2.8407989140973435,0,11.886755865813457],[2.8147431244455197,0,2.677635293168804,3.1292846197273976,0,59.69029760464554,28.69586256956206,0,0,0,0,2.9921767884506814]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility91.06percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[15.934727026620545,24.01864942096556,2.331177620694841,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.71544593171906],[54.93503975179368,0,0,28.01047120418848,0,0,0,2.0166763622261006,0.31025790188093855,2.8407989140973435,0,11.886755865813457],[2.8147431244455197,0,2.677635293168804,3.1292846197273976,0,59.69029760464554,28.69586256956206,0,0,0,0,2.9921767884506814]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility81.62percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[15.934727026620545,24.01864942096556,2.331177620694841,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.71544593171906],[54.93503975179368,0,0,28.01047120418848,0,0,0,2.0166763622261006,0.31025790188093855,2.8407989140973435,0,11.886755865813457],[2.8147431244455197,0,2.677635293168804,3.1292846197273976,0,59.69029760464554,28.69586256956206,0,0,0,0,2.9921767884506814]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Enrrique Arredondo Amaya | Alcalde | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Jop Gamaliel Oajaca Pocasangre | Síndico I | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Carlos Exadivar Cruz Samayoa | Síndico II | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Juan Carlos Muñoz Ibañez | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Arcenio Solares Monterroso | Concejal 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Mery Carina Revolorio Franco | Concejal 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| José Felix Solares Dávila | Concejal 3 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Fidel Valensuela López | Concejal 4 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Olga Rosario Donis Mancilla | Concejal 5 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Francisco Noe Navarijo Marroquín | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Hernan López Pérez | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| JOSE ENRRIQUE ARREDONDO AMAYA | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JOP GAMALIEL OAJACA POCASANGRE | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| CARLOS EXADIVAR CRÚZ SAMAYOA | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JUAN POCASANGRE AVILA | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | UCN | unknown |
| ARCENIO SOLARES MONTERROSO | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| MERY CARINA REVOLORIO FRANCO | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JOSÉ FELIX SOLARES DÁVILA | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| DAN MAJERLYN ESTUARDO ALVAREZ ARREDONDO | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | UCN | unknown |
| FREDY AROLDO VALENZUELA CEIJAS | CONCEJAL QUINTO | 2019 | UCN | unknown |
| FIDEL VALENSUELA LÓPEZ | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| MARÍA DEL TRÁNSITO VIVAR DE MARTÍNEZ | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UCN | unknown |
| JOSE ENRRIQUE ARREDONDO AMAYA | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| JOP GAMALIEL OAJACA POCASANGRE | SINDICO I | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| CARLOS EXADIVAR CRUZ SAMAYOA | SINDICO II | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| JUSTO ELFEGO POCASANGRE SALAZAR | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| JOSE FELIX SOLARES DAVILA | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| AUGUSTO SOLARES BARRERA | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| JOSE EDGAR SOLARES HERRERA | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| BENEDICTO ALVAREZ GARCIA | CONCEJAL V | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| CARLOS FRATERNO MORALES CRUZ | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| BACILIO GARZO GONZALEZ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| MARIA DEL TRANSITO VIVAR MARTINEZ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Nueva Santa Rosa — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-06-14. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.