Office briefing
Guazacapán — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · Guazacapán / Santa Rosa · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-06-11
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Guazacapán / Santa Rosa
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-e4b0d8e878b3be0911f37032
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE43.9%
- VAMOS37.6%
- CABAL15.3%
- AZUL2.7%
- MI FAMILIA0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · NOEL DE LA CRUZ PABLO | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 3,568 | 43.9% | 5 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 3,056 | 37.6% | 2 | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,240 | 15.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| AZUL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 221 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MI FAMILIA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 34 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE42.7%
- PHG28.3%
- FCN-NACION13.8%
- UCN12.3%
- UNIONISTA2.2%
- PAN0.5%
- AVANZA0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · FRANCISCO ORANTES | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 3,326 | 42.7% | 6 | Recorded |
| PHG | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 2,203 | 28.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,075 | 13.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UCN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 961 | 12.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIONISTA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 175 | 2.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PAN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 38 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| AVANZA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 16 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PP54.9%
- LIDER33.7%
- UNE7.3%
- TODOS4.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP · Francisco Orantes | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 4,120 | 54.9% | 6 | Recorded |
| LIDER · Noel De La Cruz Pablo | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 2,526 | 33.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| UNE · Jaime Noe Ortiz González | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 551 | 7.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS · Vacante | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 309 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI48.850–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=6.3061953442542205, oldest_gap=21.236344257926994, previous_gap=14.408519373877343
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility38.91percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[43.94629880527159,37.64010346101737,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.41359773371105],[42.67385168078009,0,0,12.32999743392353,0,0,0,0,13.792661021298434,2.2453169104439312,0,28.958172953554016],[7.340794031441513,0,4.116706634692246,0,0,33.65307753796962,54.88942179589662,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility92.66percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[43.94629880527159,37.64010346101737,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.41359773371105],[42.67385168078009,0,0,12.32999743392353,0,0,0,0,13.792661021298434,2.2453169104439312,0,28.958172953554016],[7.340794031441513,0,4.116706634692246,0,0,33.65307753796962,54.88942179589662,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility65.79percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[43.94629880527159,37.64010346101737,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.41359773371105],[42.67385168078009,0,0,12.32999743392353,0,0,0,0,13.792661021298434,2.2453169104439312,0,28.958172953554016],[7.340794031441513,0,4.116706634692246,0,0,33.65307753796962,54.88942179589662,0,0,0,0,0]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Orantes | Alcalde | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Orlando Benjamín Mejía Rodas | Síndico I | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Pedro Abrahán del Cid Alvizures | Síndico II | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Kevin Dionel López de La Cruz | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Julio Gómez Ramírez | Concejal 1 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Abel Godoy García | Concejal 2 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Edgar Alfredo López Pérez | Concejal 3 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Juan José Pérez García | Concejal 4 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Marcia Yaneli Carbajal Pérez | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Alfredo Santos | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| FRANCISCO ORANTES | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| SULYVAN CAROLO GODOY ESTRADA | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JULIO GOMEZ RAMÍREZ | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| EDGAR ROLANDO MARTIR CRUZ | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| EDGAR ALFREDO LOPEZ PEREZ | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| MARIA JOSEFINA MORALES BARILLAS GALINDO | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| LUCIO RODOLFO HURTADO SOLÍS | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| IRAN ALEJOS HERNANDEZ VASQUEZ | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | PHG | unknown |
| CARLOS NATANAÉL HERNÁNDEZ VASQUEZ | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| CARLOS HUMBERTO BENITO GOMEZ | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | PHG | unknown |
| NOEL DE LA CRUZ PABLO | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| CARLOS HUMBERTO BENITO GOMEZ | SINDICO I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| TESLA YESENIA HERNANDEZ GUDIEL | SINDICO II | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| EDGAR DONALDO CONTRERAS PABLO | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| MARVIN NOE MARROQUIN SOLORZANO | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| EDGAR ALFREDO LOPEZ PEREZ | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| LESTER JOHANATAN CASTILLO CONTRERAS | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| VICTOR MANUEL VASQUEZ GONZALEZ | CONCEJAL V | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| TRINIDAD DE JESUS PEREZ LOPEZ DE BAUTISTA | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| JOSE LEON QUEVEDO ORTIZ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| KAREN ANAYANCI ORTIZ MONZON | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Guazacapán — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-06-11. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.