Office briefing
Oratorio — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · Oratorio / Santa Rosa · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-06-06
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Oratorio / Santa Rosa
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-a0f087ae8be7e2437f33b426
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE29.4%
- VAMOS22.5%
- CABAL17.5%
- PPN16.2%
- VIVA4.7%
- BIEN2.6%
- VALOR UNIONISTA2.6%
- CAMBIO2.0%
- MI FAMILIA1.3%
- SEMILLA0.8%
- MLP0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · NERY ARMANDO CASTILLO OLIVARES | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 2,613 | 29.4% | 5 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,997 | 22.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,551 | 17.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| PPN | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,443 | 16.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| VIVA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 415 | 4.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| BIEN | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 235 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VALOR UNIONISTA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 231 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CAMBIO | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 179 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MI FAMILIA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 115 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SEMILLA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 72 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MLP | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 37 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PC24.3%
- UNIONISTA20.6%
- UCN20.0%
- FCN-NACION9.6%
- VAMOS8.8%
- UNE6.9%
- AVANZA4.1%
- CREO3.8%
- SEMILLA1.5%
- MLP0.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC · ELY YOVANY OROZCO MARTINEZ | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,964 | 24.3% | 5 | Recorded |
| UNIONISTA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,665 | 20.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| UCN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,617 | 20% | 1 | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 773 | 9.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 709 | 8.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 557 | 6.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| AVANZA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 328 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 307 | 3.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SEMILLA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 122 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MLP | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 49 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PP45.8%
- LIDER37.1%
- UCN8.3%
- UNE6.4%
- TODOS2.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP · Ely Yovany Orozco Martínez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 3,925 | 45.8% | 5 | Recorded |
| LIDER · Abel Sandoval Martínez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 3,173 | 37.1% | 2 | Recorded |
| UCN · Nery Armando Castillo Olivares | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 709 | 8.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNE · Abel Menéndez Ayala | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 545 | 6.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS · Edvin Orlando Silva Álvarez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 210 | 2.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI69.270–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=6.93069306930693, oldest_gap=8.782994627423498, previous_gap=3.695464095909035
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility54.61percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[29.399189918991897,22.468496849684968,0,0,4.669216921692169,0,0,0,0,0,0.8100810081008101,42.653015301530154],[6.884192312445927,8.762822889630453,0,19.985168705969595,0,0,0,3.7943393894450623,9.553825237918675,20.57842046718576,1.5078482264244222,28.933382770980103],[6.365335202055594,0,2.452697967764541,8.280775519738379,0,37.05909834150899,45.84209296893249,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility85.35percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[29.399189918991897,22.468496849684968,0,0,4.669216921692169,0,0,0,0,0,0.8100810081008101,42.653015301530154],[6.884192312445927,8.762822889630453,0,19.985168705969595,0,0,0,3.7943393894450623,9.553825237918675,20.57842046718576,1.5078482264244222,28.933382770980103],[6.365335202055594,0,2.452697967764541,8.280775519738379,0,37.05909834150899,45.84209296893249,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility69.98percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[29.399189918991897,22.468496849684968,0,0,4.669216921692169,0,0,0,0,0,0.8100810081008101,42.653015301530154],[6.884192312445927,8.762822889630453,0,19.985168705969595,0,0,0,3.7943393894450623,9.553825237918675,20.57842046718576,1.5078482264244222,28.933382770980103],[6.365335202055594,0,2.452697967764541,8.280775519738379,0,37.05909834150899,45.84209296893249,0,0,0,0,0]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ely Yovany Orozco Martínez | Alcalde | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Evidalia Morán Solares | Síndico I | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Jorge Luis Hernández López | Síndico II | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Donain Espina Banegas | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Isaías Cordero Santa Cruz | Concejal 1 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Francisco Victoriano Berganza Guinea | Concejal 2 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Celso García y García | Concejal 3 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Gregorio Caceres Guzmán | Concejal 4 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Marta Lucrecia Silva | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Gilma Magali Monroy Rivera de Escamilla | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| ELY YOVANY OROZCO MARTINEZ | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2019 | PC | unknown |
| CARLOS HUMBERTO PINEDA SALAZAR | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | PC | unknown |
| JORGE LUIS HERNÁNDEZ LÓPEZ | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | PC | unknown |
| JOSÁ EDGAR OSORIO HERNÁNDEZ | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | PC | unknown |
| FRANCISCO VICTORIANO BERGANZA GUINEA | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | PC | unknown |
| OSMIN MARROQUIN ALEGRIA | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | PC | unknown |
| OTONIEL LOPEZ MARROQUIN | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | UNIONISTA | unknown |
| ABEL MENEDEZ AYALA | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | UCN | unknown |
| ELFIDO HAROLDO DE LEON SILVA | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | PC | unknown |
| ERNESTO GARCIA ENRÍQUEZ | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNIONISTA | unknown |
| NERY ARMANDO CASTILLO OLIVARES | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| JOSE MANUEL CHINCHILLA RUANO | SINDICO I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| OSMIN ESQUIVEL VASQUEZ | SINDICO II | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| OSCAR LEONEL PADILLA CAMBARA | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| ALVARO HUGO SOTO | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| NERY GREGORIO HERNANDEZ MENENDEZ | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JUAN ALBERTO HERNANDEZ MORAN | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| MILTON ALBERTO HERRARTE SOLIS | CONCEJAL V | 2023 | PPN | unknown |
| MIGUEL ANGEL NAVARRO PERALTA | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| PEDRO PABLO CHINCHILLA RAMIREZ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| MARIA DEL ROSARIO LUTIN GONZALEZ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Oratorio — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-06-06. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.