Office briefing
San Rafael Las Flores — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · San Rafael Las Flores / Santa Rosa · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-06-05
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- San Rafael Las Flores / Santa Rosa
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-6cd292a98462ee66f95211c5
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- CABAL50.6%
- UNE33.8%
- VAMOS13.7%
- VALOR UNIONISTA1.3%
- MLP0.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CABAL · LUIS FERNANDO MONTERROSO MORALES | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 3,030 | 50.6% | 5 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 2,027 | 33.8% | 2 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 820 | 13.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VALOR UNIONISTA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 78 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MLP | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 36 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE38.7%
- C.C.A33.3%
- VAMOS26.8%
- MLP0.7%
- EG0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · ROBERTO DE JESÚS PIVARAL Y PIVARAL | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,997 | 38.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| C.C.A | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,720 | 33.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,385 | 26.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MLP | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 37 | 0.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| EG | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 26 | 0.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- LIDER33.5%
- UNE31.3%
- PP14.6%
- TODOS13.1%
- PAN3.8%
- CREO-Unionista1.8%
- VIVA1.2%
- CAMPO0.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIDER · Roberto de Jesús Pivaral y Pivaral | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,600 | 33.5% | 5 | Recorded |
| UNE · Victor Leonel Morales Pozuelos | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,491 | 31.3% | 2 | Recorded |
| PP · Carlos Francisco Monterroso Mijangos | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 698 | 14.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS · Francisco De Jesús Pivaral Vega | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 623 | 13.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PAN · Carlos Lionel Morales Rodríguez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 180 | 3.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO-Unionista · Gloria Arminda Valenzuela Hernández de Anavisca | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 84 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VIVA · Elmer Augusto Pozuelos Gómez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 55 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CAMPO · Julio Cesar Pozuelos Gómez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 39 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI40.590–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=16.741779335670174, oldest_gap=2.285115303983229, previous_gap=5.363020329138429
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility17.96percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[33.83408446002337,13.687197462860958,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.47871807711567],[38.66408518877057,26.81510164569216,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.52081316553727],[31.257861635220127,0,13.060796645702306,0,1.1530398322851152,33.542976939203356,14.633123689727464,0,0,0,0,6.352201257861636]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility62.39percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[33.83408446002337,13.687197462860958,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.47871807711567],[38.66408518877057,26.81510164569216,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.52081316553727],[31.257861635220127,0,13.060796645702306,0,1.1530398322851152,33.542976939203356,14.633123689727464,0,0,0,0,6.352201257861636]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility40.17percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[33.83408446002337,13.687197462860958,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.47871807711567],[38.66408518877057,26.81510164569216,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.52081316553727],[31.257861635220127,0,13.060796645702306,0,1.1530398322851152,33.542976939203356,14.633123689727464,0,0,0,0,6.352201257861636]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto de Jesús Pivaral y Pivaral | Alcalde | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Rene Antonio Muñoz Villagrán | Síndico I | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Byron Adolfo Pérez Veliz | Síndico II | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Hugo Noe Abrego Aquino | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Alberto Estrada Cazun | Concejal 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Jose Leon Hernandez Marroquin | Concejal 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Dielman Heraldo Perez Perez | Concejal 3 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Jose Rolando Pivaral Flores | Concejal 4 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Emilio Cruz Perez | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Marcos Del Rosario Pivaral Leiva | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| ROBERTO DE JESÚS PIVARAL Y PIVARAL | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| RENÉ ANTONIO MUÑOZ VILLAGRÁN | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| BYRON ADOLFO PÉREZ VELIZ | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| SANDY EDILSA LEMUS PEREZ | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| ALBERTO ESTRADA CAZÚN | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JOSÉ LEÓN HERNÁNDEZ MARROQUÍN | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| FRANCISCO DE JESUS PIVARAL VEGA | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | CCEA | unknown |
| FREDY HERNÁN VALENZUELA HERNÁNDEZ | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| MARCOS DEL ROSARIO PIVARAL LEIVA | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| PEDRO ALFREDO ANAVISCA LEMUZ | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | CCEA | unknown |
| LUIS FERNANDO MONTERROSO MORALES | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| ERNESTO PEREZ Y PEREZ | SINDICO I | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| OSCAR RAFAEL DEL CID GOMEZ | SINDICO II | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| WILLIAM ALFREDO ANAVISCA NAVICHOQUE | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| BRANDON ANTONIO MORAN MEJIA | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| JOSE LEON HERNANDEZ MARROQUIN | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| FRANCISCO DE JESUS PIVARAL VEGA | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| PERFECTO SALAZAR GONZALES | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| CLEMENTE DE JESUS MARROQUIN PEREZ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| MARCOS DEL ROSARIO PIVARAL LEIVA | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Elected party not matched to vote party: {"id": "GT-M-06-05", "year": 2019, "issue": "Elected party not matched to vote party", "parties": ["CCEA"], "pages": [499]}
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “San Rafael Las Flores — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-06-05. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.