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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Cuilapa — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Guatemala · Cuilapa / Santa Rosa · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-06-01

Read the complete original research briefing

Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Cuilapa / Santa Rosa
Next election
2027-06-27
Linked upcoming event
next-f75f20d07a583db9b6f6878e
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-06-25

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • VAMOS41.9%
  • UNE37.4%
  • CABAL6.6%
  • VALOR UNIONISTA6.4%
  • BIEN2.4%
  • P A N1.3%
  • VIVA1.3%
  • MLP1.1%
  • AZUL0.8%
  • MI FAMILIA0.4%
  • PHG0.3%
Results for event-23604febb4b2f2fb8ec3fd88
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
VAMOS · MARYFLOR MORALES CONTRERASguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20235,32741.9%6Recorded
UNEguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20234,75937.4%2Recorded
CABALguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20238356.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VALOR UNIONISTAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20238186.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
BIENguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20233102.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
P A Nguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231681.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VIVAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231601.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MLPguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231451.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AZULguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231010.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MI FAMILIAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023540.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PHGguatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023410.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-06-16

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • PC36.3%
  • UNE32.1%
  • UCN6.3%
  • VAMOS4.8%
  • FCN-NACION4.6%
  • UNIONISTA3.8%
  • PHG3.0%
  • TODOS2.6%
  • C.C.E.S2.3%
  • SEMILLA2.1%
  • CREO1.4%
  • AVANZA0.7%
Results for event-d1629eb327f0acc489f68767
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PC · ESVIN FERNANDO MARROQUÍN TÚPASguatemala/S6d250220e847/20194,95736.3%6Recorded
UNEguatemala/S6d250220e847/20194,39032.1%2Recorded
UCNguatemala/S6d250220e847/20198576.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VAMOSguatemala/S6d250220e847/20196504.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FCN-NACIONguatemala/S6d250220e847/20196344.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIONISTAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20195203.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PHGguatemala/S6d250220e847/20194073%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
TODOSguatemala/S6d250220e847/20193522.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
C.C.E.Sguatemala/S6d250220e847/20193102.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SEMILLAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20192882.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CREOguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191981.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AVANZAguatemala/S6d250220e847/2019940.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2015-09-06

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • PP33.0%
  • TODOS18.3%
  • LIDER14.7%
  • UNE11.5%
  • UCN10.1%
  • SUR CUILAPA4.5%
  • FCN NACION3.8%
  • CREO- Unionista2.3%
  • FUERZA1.4%
  • CNN0.4%
Results for event-52fffc40f6e33a2d47642f0c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PP · Esvin Fernando Marroquín Túpasguatemala/S6241581360d0/20154,56533%4Recorded
TODOS · Luis Felipe Sagastume Ramosguatemala/S6241581360d0/20152,52818.3%2Recorded
LIDER · Eduardo Antonio Lima Reyesguatemala/S6241581360d0/20152,03614.7%1Recorded
UNE · Eligio De Jesús Aguilar Chajónguatemala/S6241581360d0/20151,59811.5%1Recorded
UCN · Luis Felipe Melgar Carrilloguatemala/S6241581360d0/20151,40210.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SUR CUILAPA · Elmer Antonio Álvarez Escalanteguatemala/S6241581360d0/20156204.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FCN NACION · Wellmann René Chacón Orantesguatemala/S6241581360d0/20155273.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CREO- Unionista · Marvin Alirio Cabrera Galvánguatemala/S6241581360d0/20153242.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA · Juan José Ubico Garcíaguatemala/S6241581360d0/20152001.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CNN · José Luis García Reyesguatemala/S6241581360d0/2015500.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

73.020–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=4.466111023745874, oldest_gap=14.707581227436823, previous_gap=4.151717068170171

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

43.66percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[37.419405566913035,41.88551659065891,0,0,1.2580594433086962,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.437018399119356],[32.144687705938345,4.759464011129824,2.5774328183349198,6.275170242366552,0,0,0,1.4498059603133924,4.642307973932782,3.807571208903859,2.1088086695467525,42.234751409533565],[11.537906137184116,0,18.252707581227437,10.12274368231047,0,14.700361010830324,32.96028880866426,0,0,0,0,12.425992779783394]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

67.18percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[37.419405566913035,41.88551659065891,0,0,1.2580594433086962,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.437018399119356],[32.144687705938345,4.759464011129824,2.5774328183349198,6.275170242366552,0,0,0,1.4498059603133924,4.642307973932782,3.807571208903859,2.1088086695467525,42.234751409533565],[11.537906137184116,0,18.252707581227437,10.12274368231047,0,14.700361010830324,32.96028880866426,0,0,0,0,12.425992779783394]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

55.42percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[37.419405566913035,41.88551659065891,0,0,1.2580594433086962,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.437018399119356],[32.144687705938345,4.759464011129824,2.5774328183349198,6.275170242366552,0,0,0,1.4498059603133924,4.642307973932782,3.807571208903859,2.1088086695467525,42.234751409533565],[11.537906137184116,0,18.252707581227437,10.12274368231047,0,14.700361010830324,32.96028880866426,0,0,0,0,12.425992779783394]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

Officeholder observations
PersonRoleAs ofAffiliationPrincipal?
Esvin Fernando Marroquín TúpasAlcalde2015Ppunknown
Harold Román Gómez SolísSíndico I2015Ppunknown
Eluvia Azucena Marroquín Orantes De CastilloSíndico Ii2015Todosunknown
Francisco Alfonso Palala BertrandSíndico Suplente2015Todosunknown
Juan José García CaríasConcejal 12015Ppunknown
Danilo Everardo Arias DíazConcejal 22015Ppunknown
José Abel Guerra AnaviscaConcejal 32015Todosunknown
Manuel De Jesus Gutiérrez MejíaConcejal 42015Liderunknown
Edgar Ovidio Barrera GarcíaConcejal 52015Uneunknown
Oscar René Castillo ChacónConcejal Suplente 12015Ppunknown
Alejandro Arturo Grageda ZetinoConcejal Suplente 22015Todosunknown
ESVIN FERNANDO MARROQUÍN TÚPASALCALDE MUNICIPAL2019PROPERIDAD CIUDADANA PCunknown
OSCAR RENÉ CASTILLO CHACÓNSÍNDICO PRIMERO2019PROSPERIDAD CIUDADANA PCunknown
EDGAR RICARDO LEÓN RUANOSÍNDICO SEGUNDO2019PROSPERIDA CIUDADANA PCunknown
MAXIMILIANO LEMUS CETINOSÍNDICO SUPLENTE2019PROPERIDAD CIUDADANA PCunknown
EMANUEL FREDY ALEXANDER ORTEGA FLORIÁNCONCEJAL PRIMERO2019PROPERIDAD CIUDADANA PCunknown
LUIS EDUARDO DE LA ROCA ESTRADACONCEJAL SEGUNDO2019PROPERIDAD CIUDADANA PCunknown
ELBA ISABEL HERNANDEZ FLORESCONCEJAL TERCERO2019PROPERIDAD CIUDADANA PCunknown
FRANCISCO ALFONSO PALALA BERTRANDCONCEJAL CUARTO2019UNEunknown
ALEJANDRO ANTONIO DEL CID MEZACONCEJAL QUINTO2019UNEunknown
BERTALINA DIVAS DE LEONPRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019PROPERIDAD CIUDADANA PCunknown
EDGAR GEOVANNI BATRES REVOLORIOSEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019UNEunknown
MARYFLOR MORALES CONTRERASALCALDE MUNICIPAL2023VAMOSunknown
OSCAR RENÉ CASTILLO CHACONSINDICO I2023VAMOSunknown
EDGAR RICARDO LEON RUANOSINDICO II2023VAMOSunknown
EMANUEL FREDY ALEXANDER ORTEGA FLORIANCONCEJAL I2023VAMOSunknown
LUIS EDUARDO DE LA ROCA ESTRADACONCEJAL II2023VAMOSunknown
ELBA ISABEL HERNANDEZ FLORESCONCEJAL III2023VAMOSunknown
ELIGIO DE JESUS AGUILAR CHAJONCONCEJAL IV2023UNEunknown
MAIRA ARDALILA RODAS MEJIACONCEJAL V2023UNEunknown
KARLA ANA GABRIELA MENDEZ JIMENEZSINDICO SUPLENTE I2023VAMOSunknown
JOSELINNE MICHELLE GUTIERREZ CANOCONCEJAL SUPLENTE I2023VAMOSunknown
MAGNOLIA MARISELA HERNANDEZ MEDRANOCONCEJAL SUPLENTE II2023UNEunknown

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “Cuilapa — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-06-01. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.