Office briefing
Masagua — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · Masagua / Escuintla · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-05-05
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Masagua / Escuintla
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-52fd3a913991c4b07994e02b
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- VAMOS40.7%
- CABAL25.2%
- VALOR17.4%
- UNE10.3%
- AZUL1.8%
- VIVA1.8%
- FCN-NACION0.8%
- TODOS0.6%
- PR0.5%
- BIEN0.5%
- PODEMOS0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAMOS · NELSON LUCIANO MARROQUIN MARROQUIN | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 7,937 | 40.7% | 6 | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 4,913 | 25.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| VALOR | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 3,399 | 17.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 2,011 | 10.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| AZUL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 355 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VIVA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 342 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 160 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 120 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PR | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 106 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| BIEN | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 90 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PODEMOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 78 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE34.6%
- PC28.9%
- UNIDOS11.5%
- FCN-NACION6.7%
- VAMOS4.8%
- BIEN4.5%
- TODOS3.0%
- FUERZA2.9%
- VIVA1.7%
- CREO1.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · AURA MARINA ORANTES GAITÁN BRAN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 5,873 | 34.6% | 6 | Recorded |
| PC | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 4,904 | 28.9% | 2 | Recorded |
| UNIDOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,943 | 11.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,143 | 6.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 816 | 4.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| BIEN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 767 | 4.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 507 | 3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 484 | 2.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VIVA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 296 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 227 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- LIDER39.5%
- UCN28.8%
- UNE20.6%
- PAN6.0%
- PP5.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIDER · Blanca Odilia Alfaro Guerra de Najera | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 6,581 | 39.5% | 5 | Recorded |
| UCN · David Jonatan Bran Paiz | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 4,803 | 28.8% | 2 | Recorded |
| UNE · Aura Marina Orantes Gaitan de Bran | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 3,427 | 20.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| PAN · Pedro Hernández Mejía | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 998 | 6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PP · Oscar Arnoldo Ramírez Valdez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 864 | 5.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI39.60–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=15.498949310645276, oldest_gap=10.663947699874043, previous_gap=5.713443396226417
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility35.88percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[10.307006304136129,40.679616626518374,0.6150376710573523,0,1.752857362513454,0,0,0,0.8200502280764697,0,0,45.82543180769822],[34.62853773584906,4.811320754716981,2.98938679245283,0,1.7452830188679245,0,0,1.338443396226415,6.73938679245283,0,0,47.74764150943396],[20.55418940802495,0,0,28.8070533197385,0,39.471001019612544,5.182030828285251,0,0,0,0,5.985725424338751]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility73.46percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[10.307006304136129,40.679616626518374,0.6150376710573523,0,1.752857362513454,0,0,0,0.8200502280764697,0,0,45.82543180769822],[34.62853773584906,4.811320754716981,2.98938679245283,0,1.7452830188679245,0,0,1.338443396226415,6.73938679245283,0,0,47.74764150943396],[20.55418940802495,0,0,28.8070533197385,0,39.471001019612544,5.182030828285251,0,0,0,0,5.985725424338751]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility54.67percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[10.307006304136129,40.679616626518374,0.6150376710573523,0,1.752857362513454,0,0,0,0.8200502280764697,0,0,45.82543180769822],[34.62853773584906,4.811320754716981,2.98938679245283,0,1.7452830188679245,0,0,1.338443396226415,6.73938679245283,0,0,47.74764150943396],[20.55418940802495,0,0,28.8070533197385,0,39.471001019612544,5.182030828285251,0,0,0,0,5.985725424338751]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blanca Odilia Alfaro Guerra de Najera | Alcalde | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| César Agusto González Carías | Síndico I | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Silvia Aracely Alvarez Moscoso | Síndico II | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| José Alfonso de Paz Canizales | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Israel Castillo Ortega | Concejal 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Pablo Humberto Soto Conde | Concejal 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Daniel López de Paz | Concejal 3 | 2015 | UCN | unknown |
| Adrian Vladimir Avila Recinos | Concejal 4 | 2015 | UCN | unknown |
| Yolanda Sierra Amado | Concejal 5 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Romeo Duarte Corado | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Maria de Jesús Zamora Méndez de Estrada | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | UCN | unknown |
| AURA MARINA ORANTES GAITÁN BRAN | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| MARVIN ARNOLDO MARTINEZ BETANCOURT | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| DEMETRIO ARRIAGA ALVARADO | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| CLAUDIA MIRTALA QUIROZ LÓPEZ LÓPEZ | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JULIO CÉSAR DE LA CRUZ CERMEÑO | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| HÉCTOR MARIO ALVARADO CARDENAS | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| ESTEBAN RODRÍGUEZ RODRÍGUEZ | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| DANIEL LOPEZ DE PAZ | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | PC | unknown |
| YOLANDA SIERRA AMADO | CONCEJAL QUINTO | 2019 | PC | unknown |
| ESTHER SANDOVAL JACOBÓ | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| ROMEO DUARTE CORADO | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | PC | unknown |
| NELSON LUCIANO MARROQUIN MARROQUIN | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| WALTER OSWALDO BRAN PAIZ | SINDICO I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| CARLOS ARMANDO ROJAS DEL CID | SINDICO II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| ISRAEL CASTILLO ORTEGA | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JONATHAN NILCENN ROSALES WILLIAMS | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| ASTRID PAHOLA PIVARAL MEJIA | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JULIO CESAR DE LA CRUZ CERMEÑO | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| YOLANDA SIERRA AMADO | CONCEJAL V | 2023 | VALOR | unknown |
| WANNER MANRIQUE PINTO PIVARAL | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| CONRADO MAXIMILIANO BRAN MEJIA | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JOSE LUIS BRAN BATRES | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Masagua — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-05-05. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.