Office briefing
La Democracia — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · La Democracia / Escuintla · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-05-03
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- La Democracia / Escuintla
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-ddce36344fe54e01e746cb19
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE40.2%
- VAMOS27.5%
- VICTORIA9.3%
- VIVA7.9%
- CABAL5.3%
- AZUL4.2%
- TODOS2.5%
- VALOR1.3%
- VOS1.0%
- PR0.4%
- ELEFANTE0.3%
- CAMBIO0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · JUAN RAMIRO SOTO GARCÍA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 4,639 | 40.2% | 6 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 3,175 | 27.5% | 2 | Recorded |
| VICTORIA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,069 | 9.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VIVA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 915 | 7.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 614 | 5.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| AZUL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 480 | 4.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 291 | 2.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VALOR | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 147 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 112 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PR | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 41 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ELEFANTE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 35 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CAMBIO | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 20 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PODEMOS33.0%
- PHG21.4%
- UNE20.0%
- PC8.9%
- BIEN7.0%
- VALOR3.7%
- UCN1.4%
- VAMOS1.1%
- UNIONISTA1.1%
- FCN-NACION1.0%
- SEMILLA0.8%
- CREO0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PODEMOS · DORA ALDINA PEREZ MARTINEZ | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 4,249 | 33% | 5 | Recorded |
| PHG | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 2,764 | 21.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 2,574 | 20% | 1 | Recorded |
| PC | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,152 | 8.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| BIEN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 908 | 7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VALOR | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 481 | 3.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UCN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 180 | 1.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 143 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIONISTA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 140 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 133 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SEMILLA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 107 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 55 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PP37.7%
- LIDER31.4%
- UNE24.3%
- TODOS3.8%
- CREO- Unionista1.7%
- PRI1.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP · Marvin Esmeling Carlos González | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 4,738 | 37.7% | 5 | Recorded |
| LIDER · Rony Francisco Recinos Calderon | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 3,937 | 31.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| UNE · Dora Aldina Pérez Martínez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 3,048 | 24.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| TODOS · Edwin Edilio Monzón Huertas | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 481 | 3.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO- Unionista · Erick Federico Rivera Carrillo | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 217 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PRI · Carlos Humberto Urrutia Rivera | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 137 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI41.460–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=12.688507540301611, oldest_gap=6.3784042044911615, previous_gap=11.524134719851002
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility57.09percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[40.20627491766337,27.51776737736176,2.5221008840353614,0,7.930317212688507,0,0,0,0,0,0,21.823539608250996],[19.975166847741736,1.1097314915412075,0,1.396864814527394,0,0,0,0.426819804438926,1.03212789073413,1.0864504112990843,0.8303585286357287,74.14248021108179],[24.271380793119924,0,3.8302277432712217,0,0,31.35053352444657,37.72893772893773,0,0,0,0,2.818920210224558]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility77.21percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[40.20627491766337,27.51776737736176,2.5221008840353614,0,7.930317212688507,0,0,0,0,0,0,21.823539608250996],[19.975166847741736,1.1097314915412075,0,1.396864814527394,0,0,0,0.426819804438926,1.03212789073413,1.0864504112990843,0.8303585286357287,74.14248021108179],[24.271380793119924,0,3.8302277432712217,0,0,31.35053352444657,37.72893772893773,0,0,0,0,2.818920210224558]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility67.15percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[40.20627491766337,27.51776737736176,2.5221008840353614,0,7.930317212688507,0,0,0,0,0,0,21.823539608250996],[19.975166847741736,1.1097314915412075,0,1.396864814527394,0,0,0,0.426819804438926,1.03212789073413,1.0864504112990843,0.8303585286357287,74.14248021108179],[24.271380793119924,0,3.8302277432712217,0,0,31.35053352444657,37.72893772893773,0,0,0,0,2.818920210224558]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Esmeling Carlos González | Alcalde | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Luis Gonzalo Silva Oliva | Síndico I | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Claudia Vanessa Almeda Flores | Síndico II | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Baldomero Angel | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Marvin Dávila Vargas | Concejal 1 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Juan Antonio Guevara Quintana | Concejal 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Carlos Humberto Gómez González | Concejal 3 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Angelina Zaso Baqui | Concejal 4 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Marco Antonio Marín Rodríguez | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Raúl Fernando Castellanos Pop | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| DORA ALDINA PEREZ MARTINEZ | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2019 | PODEMOS | unknown |
| MARCIA DELFINA GUEVARA TELLEZ MEJIA | SÍNDICOS PRIMERO | 2019 | PODEMOS | unknown |
| AURA LETICIA CABRERA MAZARIEGOS LOPEZ | SÍNDICOS SEGUNDO | 2019 | PODEMOS | unknown |
| JOSE HUMBERTO CICAY FIGUEROA | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | PODEMOS | unknown |
| ALBERTO ORTIZ AVILA | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | PODEMOS | unknown |
| GLADYS ARGENTINA DEL CID ARENAS | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | PODEMOS | unknown |
| CARLOS RENE RAYO FLORES | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | PHG | unknown |
| CÉSAR SOTO GARCIA | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| HERNAN RUBEN CASTELLANOS CHOGUAJ | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | PODEMOS | unknown |
| ABNER AVIMAEL CHINCHILLA DARDON | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | PHG | unknown |
| JUAN RAMIRO SOTO GARCÍA | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| EDWIN RENE MONTEPEQUE LUNA | SINDICO I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| ROBERTO CARLOS MALDONADO SALAZAR | SINDICO II | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| MARVIN LEONEL DE LA ROSA AVILA | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| ELSA MARINA ESCALANTE HERNÁNDEZ DE ALVAREZ | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| JORGE MARIO GARCÍA LÓPEZ | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| ALBERTO ORTÍZ AVILA | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| GLADYS ARGENTINA DEL CID ARENAS | CONCEJAL V | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JORGE JAVIER CARDENAS CIFUENTES | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| HILARIO RUIZ JOLOM | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| MEDARDO SANTA LUCE AGUILAR | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “La Democracia — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-05-03. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.