Office briefing
San Antonio La Paz — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · San Antonio La Paz / El Progreso · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-04-08
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- San Antonio La Paz / El Progreso
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-63e461fdea84205e761ba83a
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- VAMOS32.4%
- ESDELCA25.3%
- CABAL24.6%
- VALOR UNIONISTA7.2%
- UNE5.9%
- PHG4.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAMOS · NUBERE AGUSTIN LÓPEZ LÓPEZ | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 2,533 | 32.4% | 5 | Recorded |
| ESDELCA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,980 | 25.3% | 2 | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,920 | 24.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| VALOR UNIONISTA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 565 | 7.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 458 | 5.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PHG | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 364 | 4.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- VAMOS33.2%
- UNE23.2%
- ELCA15.3%
- BIEN13.7%
- FUERZA5.0%
- PHG4.9%
- CREO4.1%
- VALOR0.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAMOS · NÚBERE AGUSTIN LÓPEZ LÓPEZ | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 2,391 | 33.2% | 5 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,674 | 23.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| ELCA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,104 | 15.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| BIEN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 987 | 13.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 362 | 5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PHG | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 352 | 4.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 293 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VALOR | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 47 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE44.9%
- PP33.2%
- LIDER17.4%
- UCN4.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · Hector Joel Cáceres Godínez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 3,596 | 44.9% | 5 | Recorded |
| PP · Nubere Agustín López López | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 2,653 | 33.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| LIDER · Carlos Humberto Paz Cante | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,395 | 17.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| UCN · Graciela Sandoval Gramajo de Corzo | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 357 | 4.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI57.980–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=7.071611253196931, oldest_gap=11.786026746656667, previous_gap=9.94452149791956
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility22.2percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[5.856777493606138,32.391304347826086,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.75191815856777],[23.21775312066574,33.1622746185853,0,0,0,0,0,4.06380027739251,0,0,0,39.55617198335645],[44.944381952255966,0,0,4.4619422572178475,0,17.435320584926885,33.1583552055993,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility76.78percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[5.856777493606138,32.391304347826086,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.75191815856777],[23.21775312066574,33.1622746185853,0,0,0,0,0,4.06380027739251,0,0,0,39.55617198335645],[44.944381952255966,0,0,4.4619422572178475,0,17.435320584926885,33.1583552055993,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility49.49percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[5.856777493606138,32.391304347826086,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.75191815856777],[23.21775312066574,33.1622746185853,0,0,0,0,0,4.06380027739251,0,0,0,39.55617198335645],[44.944381952255966,0,0,4.4619422572178475,0,17.435320584926885,33.1583552055993,0,0,0,0,0]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Joel Cáceres Godínez | Alcalde | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| José Rodolfo Santos Cuellar | Síndico I | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Higinio González Boche | Síndico II | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Alejandro Sánchez Cordero | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Dora Liset Del Cid Alvarado de Morales | Concejal 1 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Gonzalo Santos Catalán | Concejal 2 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| José Pedro Beltrán Mejía | Concejal 3 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Jaime Felipe Lemus López | Concejal 4 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Sostenes Morataya Beltrán | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Osman Renato Paredes Palencia | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| NÚBERE AGUSTIN LÓPEZ LÓPEZ | ALCALDE | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JOSÉ PEDRO BELTRÁN MEJÍA | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JELMONH MARTÍNEZ DE LA CRUZ | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| CAMILO HERNÁNDEZ CANTÉ | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| ALVARO BISAEL GARCÍA CRUZ | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| RAMIRO ALFONSO TOLEDO ESPINOZA | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| GONZALO SANTOS CATALAN | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JOSÉ MARTÍN RODRÍGUEZ GUTIÉRREZ | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | ELCA | unknown |
| ALFONSO RODRIGUEZ HERNÁNDEZ | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| VIDAL DE JESÚS GÓMEZ CANTÉ | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| NUBERE AGUSTIN LÓPEZ LÓPEZ | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JOSE PEDRO BELTRAN MEJIA | SINDICO I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JOSE MARTIN RODRIGUEZ GUTIERREZ | SINDICO II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| ALVARO BISAEL GARCIA CRUZ | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| SILVIA MAGALI PALENCIA MERLOS DE CASTRO | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| HENRRI DANILO VELIZ CRUZ | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | ESDELCA | unknown |
| LORENA IZABEL GARCIA BURGOS | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | ESDELCA | unknown |
| MILDRED AZUCENA ROMERO AGUILAR | CONCEJAL V | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| JELMONH MARTÍNEZ DE LA CRUZ | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| ROCELINE LORAINE JERONIMO ESTRADA | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JESUS GUILLERMO SILVESTRE MONTEJO | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | ESDELCA | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “San Antonio La Paz — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-04-08. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.