Office briefing
Sanarate — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · Sanarate / El Progreso · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-04-07
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Sanarate / El Progreso
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-094f4525301dab6cc5b3beb4
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- VAMOS40.6%
- CABAL30.0%
- UNE22.9%
- AZUL2.4%
- VALOR - UNIONISTA2.2%
- BIEN1.4%
- MLP0.4%
- CAMBIO0.1%
- P A N0.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAMOS · CESAR AUGUSTO RODAS ALVAREZ | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 7,382 | 40.6% | 5 | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 5,455 | 30% | 2 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 4,167 | 22.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| AZUL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 445 | 2.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VALOR - UNIONISTA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 392 | 2.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| BIEN | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 248 | 1.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MLP | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 68 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CAMBIO | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 16 | 0.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| P A N | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 13 | 0.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE52.7%
- FCN-NACION39.5%
- VAMOS4.0%
- TODOS3.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · VICTOR ISRAEL GUERRA ZAVALA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 8,782 | 52.7% | 6 | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 6,583 | 39.5% | 2 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 661 | 4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 645 | 3.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PP36.9%
- UNE27.6%
- UCN24.9%
- LIDER4.6%
- MISEP3.3%
- FCN NACION2.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP · Cesar Augusto Rodas Alvarez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 6,190 | 36.9% | 5 | Recorded |
| UNE · Victor Israel Guerra Zavala | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 4,630 | 27.6% | 2 | Recorded |
| UCN · Carlos Arturo Sanchez Palencia | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 4,187 | 24.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| LIDER · Juan Andres Ordoñez Krall | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 772 | 4.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MISEP · Aleyda Lucrecia Ordoñez Fajardo | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 546 | 3.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN NACION · Mario Hernandez Estrada | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 459 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI43.780–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=10.596062905531731, oldest_gap=9.294566253574828, previous_gap=13.19057045168256
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility73.12percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[22.913229957109866,40.59166391729902,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.49510612559111],[52.678303641053326,3.964969108031912,3.8689940615439986,0,0,0,0,0,39.487733189370765,0,0,0],[27.585795996186846,0,0,24.94637750238322,0,4.599618684461392,36.880362249761674,0,0,0,0,5.987845567206864]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility72.41percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[22.913229957109866,40.59166391729902,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.49510612559111],[52.678303641053326,3.964969108031912,3.8689940615439986,0,0,0,0,0,39.487733189370765,0,0,0],[27.585795996186846,0,0,24.94637750238322,0,4.599618684461392,36.880362249761674,0,0,0,0,5.987845567206864]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility72.77percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[22.913229957109866,40.59166391729902,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.49510612559111],[52.678303641053326,3.964969108031912,3.8689940615439986,0,0,0,0,0,39.487733189370765,0,0,0],[27.585795996186846,0,0,24.94637750238322,0,4.599618684461392,36.880362249761674,0,0,0,0,5.987845567206864]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesar Augusto Rodas Alvarez | Alcalde | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Lucía Anabella Estrada Palma | Síndico I | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Manuel Alfredo Fajardo Hernández | Síndico II | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Jose Arturo Lemus Galán | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Hoffman Joe Palencia Rodríguez | Concejal 1 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Edwin Aroldo Reyes Moreno | Concejal 2 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Gustavo Castellanos Carías | Concejal 3 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Luis Osvaldo Ordoñez Hernández | Concejal 4 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| Ada Ruth Guerra Raymundo de Valladares | Concejal 5 | 2015 | UCN | unknown |
| Berny Ottoniel Del Cid Morales | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | UNE | unknown |
| VICTOR ISRAEL GUERRA ZAVALA | ALCALDE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| LEOPOLDO HERRERA RAMÍREZ | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| FRANCISCO HERNÁNDEZ MORATAYA | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| RUDY FERNANDO PÉREZ GEREDA | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| BERNY OTTONIEL DEL CID MORALES | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| ELISEO GUTIÉRREZ PALENCIA | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| MELVIN ABEL PALENCIA HERNÁNDEZ | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| WALTER ALEXANDER LEVY HERRERA | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | FCN-NACION | unknown |
| HOFFMAN JOE PALENCIA RODRIGUEZ | CONCEJAL QUINTO | 2019 | FCN-NACION | unknown |
| BILLY FELIPE GUERRA PALMA | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| MIRIAM BELTRÁN FAJARDO DE MORALES | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | FCN-NACION | unknown |
| CESAR AUGUSTO RODAS ALVAREZ | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| FELIX EDUARDO MARROQUIN LINARES | SINDICO I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| ADA RUTH GUERRA RAYMUNDO | SINDICO II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| LUIS FERNANDO FLORES BARRERA | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| MARLON IVAN ALBEÑO SALAZAR | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| CELSO LEONEL GARCIA PINEDA | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| CARLOS NOLBERTO MORALES MENDEZ | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| FERNANDO MEJIA CARRERA | CONCEJAL V | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| WENDY YULIANA MORALES GARCIA | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| CINDY NOHEMY GARCIA GARRIDO | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| EFRAIN LOAIZA MORALES | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Sanarate — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-04-07. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.