Office briefing
Sansare — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · Sansare / El Progreso · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-04-06
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Sansare / El Progreso
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-387a0c5fdcc432d5c7878df9
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- VAMOS25.9%
- CABAL24.8%
- VALOR UNIONISTA18.5%
- UNE17.9%
- PODEMOS5.9%
- BIEN2.7%
- CREO1.6%
- MLP1.1%
- TODOS0.9%
- AZUL0.5%
- P A N0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAMOS · SEBASTIAN MORALES CARRERA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,724 | 25.9% | 4 | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,656 | 24.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| VALOR UNIONISTA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,234 | 18.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,195 | 17.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| PODEMOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 396 | 5.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| BIEN | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 178 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 106 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MLP | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 71 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| TODOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 57 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| AZUL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 36 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| P A N | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 13 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE53.0%
- TODOS36.6%
- VAMOS3.0%
- FCN-NACION2.7%
- MLP1.7%
- SEMILLA1.5%
- VALOR0.7%
- FUERZA0.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · ALEX DONALDO CASTAÑEDA MEJÍA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 3,466 | 53% | 5 | Recorded |
| TODOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 2,390 | 36.6% | 2 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 198 | 3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 179 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MLP | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 108 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SEMILLA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 99 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VALOR | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 49 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 46 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- PP47.0%
- LIDER26.5%
- CREO- Unionista17.4%
- UNE6.8%
- UCN2.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP · Pablo Aguilar Morales | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 3,098 | 47% | 5 | Recorded |
| LIDER · Esvin Abel Morales Guzmán | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,745 | 26.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| CREO- Unionista · Sebastián Morales Carrera | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,143 | 17.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| UNE · Alex Donaldo Castañeda Mejía | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 446 | 6.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UCN · Bayron René Juárez Marroquín | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 155 | 2.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI61.970–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.0201020102010219, oldest_gap=20.54045847882192, previous_gap=16.465187452180565
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility75.08percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[17.926792679267926,25.862586258625864,0.8550855085508551,0,0,0,0,1.5901590159015901,0,0,0,53.76537653765376],[53.03749043611324,3.0298393267023718,36.57230298393267,0,0,0,0,0,2.739097169089518,0,1.5149196633511859,3.106350420811018],[6.77091240321846,0,0,2.3531197813875817,0,26.49157431304084,47.03203279186276,0,0,0,0,17.35236071049036]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility90.12percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[17.926792679267926,25.862586258625864,0.8550855085508551,0,0,0,0,1.5901590159015901,0,0,0,53.76537653765376],[53.03749043611324,3.0298393267023718,36.57230298393267,0,0,0,0,0,2.739097169089518,0,1.5149196633511859,3.106350420811018],[6.77091240321846,0,0,2.3531197813875817,0,26.49157431304084,47.03203279186276,0,0,0,0,17.35236071049036]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility82.6percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[17.926792679267926,25.862586258625864,0.8550855085508551,0,0,0,0,1.5901590159015901,0,0,0,53.76537653765376],[53.03749043611324,3.0298393267023718,36.57230298393267,0,0,0,0,0,2.739097169089518,0,1.5149196633511859,3.106350420811018],[6.77091240321846,0,0,2.3531197813875817,0,26.49157431304084,47.03203279186276,0,0,0,0,17.35236071049036]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Aguilar Morales | Alcalde | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Noe Ruli Cardona Gudiel | Síndico I | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Luis Arturo Castañeda Gutiérrez | Síndico II | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Luis Antonio López Del Cid | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Eric Waldemar González Castañeda | Concejal 1 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Rubén Dario Salazar Estrada | Concejal 2 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Jorge Humberto Juárez Lima | Concejal 3 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Mercedes de Jesus Artiga Veliz de Morales | Concejal 4 | 2015 | CREO-Unionista | unknown |
| Edna Ileana Cardona Hernández de Palacios | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Carlos Humberto Marroquín | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| ALEX DONALDO CASTAÑEDA MEJÍA | ALCALDE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| ALMA ARITBETH SANDOVAL RIVAS DE COLINDRES | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| WERNER ANTONIO RODRIGUEZ ORTÍZ | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| MATEO SANCHEZ | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| LUDWIN ISAÍ RIVAS ESTRADA | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| OBDULIO MANFREDI MORALES RAMOS | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| RUBEN DARIO SALAZAR ESTRADA | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | TODOS | unknown |
| MERCEDES DE JESUS ARTIGA VELIZ | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | TODOS | unknown |
| ROBERTO MORALES MARROQUIN | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JORGE MARIO CHAMO RUANO | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | TODOS | unknown |
| SEBASTIAN MORALES CARRERA | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| BENJAMIN NORBERTO ROMERO MORALES | SINDICO I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| HERLINDO RUANO LEMUS | SINDICO II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| NELSON GEOVANY VALENZUELA JIMENEZ | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| RAMIRO HERLINDO ROJAS SOLIS | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
| OTTO ANTONIO ARRIAZA GUDIEL | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | VALOR UNIONISTA | unknown |
| MATEO SANCHEZ | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | UNE | unknown |
| ILSY MARIELY MURALLES RAFAEL | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| BREISY JULIZZA CASTAÑEDA HERRARTE | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| NANCY LUCILA MERLOS JUAREZ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | CABAL | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Sansare — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-04-06. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.