Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

San Miguel Dueñas — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Guatemala · San Miguel Dueñas / Sacatepéquez · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-02-13

Read the complete original research briefing

Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
San Miguel Dueñas / Sacatepéquez
Next election
2027-06-27
Linked upcoming event
next-4ef0ea9797520a5cbcf5062f
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-06-25

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • VAMOS37.0%
  • VALOR UNIONISTA36.7%
  • CABAL16.0%
  • UNE5.9%
  • VIVA3.8%
  • PPN0.6%
Results for event-0a7fb5da57892b1107e5db34
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
VAMOS · EDUARDO MORALES MEDIOguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,50337%5Recorded
VALOR UNIONISTAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,49036.7%2Recorded
CABALguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202364816%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNEguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20232395.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VIVAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231533.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPNguatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023240.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-06-16

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • UNIONISTA38.2%
  • UNE21.5%
  • CREO19.7%
  • LA PLANTA17.6%
  • VAMOS3.0%
Results for event-23b2f57ed5d09a6ddb3088d2
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIONISTA · JOSE OTILIO BARRIENTOS CABRERAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191,62638.2%5Recorded
UNEguatemala/S6d250220e847/201991421.5%1Recorded
CREOguatemala/S6d250220e847/201983819.7%1Recorded
LA PLANTAguatemala/S6d250220e847/201974717.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VAMOSguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191293%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2015-09-06

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • TODOS65.0%
  • LIDER35.0%
Results for event-50d9d1a314140ddc99062f6a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
TODOS · Pedro Horacio Quiñónez Hernándezguatemala/S6241581360d0/20153,27365%6Recorded
LIDER · Jorge Rodrigo Ramirez Hernándezguatemala/S6241581360d0/20151,75935%1Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

58.890–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.32043381809218374, oldest_gap=30.087440381558025, previous_gap=16.73718852844382

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

73.52percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[5.891052501848657,37.047079122504314,0,0,3.771259551392655,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.29060882425438],[21.48566055477198,3.0324400564174896,0,0,0,0,0,19.699106723084157,0,38.2228490832158,0,17.559943582510577],[0,0,65.04372019077901,0,0,34.95627980922099,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

100percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[5.891052501848657,37.047079122504314,0,0,3.771259551392655,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.29060882425438],[21.48566055477198,3.0324400564174896,0,0,0,0,0,19.699106723084157,0,38.2228490832158,0,17.559943582510577],[0,0,65.04372019077901,0,0,34.95627980922099,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

86.76percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[5.891052501848657,37.047079122504314,0,0,3.771259551392655,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.29060882425438],[21.48566055477198,3.0324400564174896,0,0,0,0,0,19.699106723084157,0,38.2228490832158,0,17.559943582510577],[0,0,65.04372019077901,0,0,34.95627980922099,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

Officeholder observations
PersonRoleAs ofAffiliationPrincipal?
Pedro Horacio Quiñónez HernándezAlcalde2015TODOSunknown
Ana Yolanda Vásquez Girón de BarrientosSíndico I2015TODOSunknown
Juventino Matias MedioSíndico II2015TODOSunknown
Diego Domingo Melgar CabreraSíndico Suplente2015TODOSunknown
Alejandro Fernández CabreraConcejal 12015TODOSunknown
Daniel Oswaldo Pérez RamírezConcejal 22015TODOSunknown
Edgar Amilcar García OrtizConcejal 32015TODOSunknown
Tomas Estuardo Vega TobarConcejal 42015LIDERunknown
Juan Alberto García JerezConcejal suplente 12015TODOSunknown
Bias Periandro Cabrera MartínezConcejal suplente 22015LIDERunknown
JOSE OTILIO BARRIENTOS CABRERAALCALDE2019UNIONISTAunknown
JOSE TITO HERNANDEZ OBREGONSÍNDICO PRIMERO2019UNIONISTAunknown
JOSE GENARO MORALES MATIASSÍNDICO SEGUNDO2019UNIONISTAunknown
HILDA YANETH MEJIA MOYA DE LA CRUZSÍNDICO SUPLENTE2019UNEunknown
JUAN ALBERTO GARCIA JEREZCONCEJAL PRIMERO2019UNIONISTAunknown
MARGARITO MELGAR JEREZCONCEJAL SEGUNDO2019UNIONISTAunknown
WILLIAMS ESTUARDO PEREIRA MENDIZABALCONCEJAL TERCERO2019UNEunknown
JUAN CARLOS MEDIO YAPANCONCEJAL CUARTO2019CREOunknown
JACOBO ANTOLIN YAPAN MATIASPRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019UNIONISTAunknown
JUAN MIGUEL HERNANDEZ QUIÑONEZSEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019UNEunknown
EDUARDO MORALES MEDIOALCALDE MUNICIPAL2023VAMOSunknown
EDGAR DANILO OBREGON ZAMORASINDICO I2023VAMOSunknown
FELIPE AMILCAR OTZIN LOPEZSINDICO II2023VAMOSunknown
DOUGLAS ARGELIO VELIZ ARIASCONCEJAL I2023VAMOSunknown
RICARDO SAGCHE CHAJONCONCEJAL II2023VAMOSunknown
HUGO FRANCISCO MUÑOZ HERNANDEZCONCEJAL III2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
WILLIAMS ESTUARDO PEREIRA MENDIZABALCONCEJAL IV2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
YURI ONELI PALENCIA CABRERASINDICO SUPLENTE I2023VAMOSunknown
HUGO FERNANDO MEDIO GOMEZCONCEJAL SUPLENTE I2023VAMOSunknown
JOSE GENARO MORALES MATIASCONCEJAL SUPLENTE II2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “San Miguel Dueñas — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-02-13. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.