Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Center forDigital DemocracyElection database
Back to the Center

Office briefing

Villa Nueva — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Guatemala · Villa Nueva / Guatemala · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-01-15

Read the complete original research briefing

Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Villa Nueva / Guatemala
Next election
2027-06-27
Linked upcoming event
next-c3a2ac3bc0b4d3cd968814d3
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-06-25

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • VALOR14.7%
  • VAMOS13.7%
  • SEMILLA11.9%
  • BIEN9.6%
  • UR7.6%
  • VIVA4.5%
  • CABAL4.4%
  • UNE3.9%
  • PPG3.8%
  • VOS2.8%
  • ELEFANTE2.6%
  • VICTORIA2.3%
  • PIN2.0%
  • PODEMOS1.9%
  • WINAQ1.8%
  • U R N G - MAIZ1.7%
  • MI FAMILIA1.2%
  • CREO1.2%
  • AZUL1.2%
  • UNIONISTA1.2%
  • CAMBIO1.1%
  • TODOS1.1%
  • MLP0.9%
  • PPN0.9%
  • P A N0.6%
  • PHG0.5%
  • PR0.5%
  • FCN-NACION0.4%
Results for event-27ccd817f4fd4f404ea6130a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
VALOR · MYNOR ALEXANDER MORALES ZURITAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202320,26614.7%7Recorded
VAMOSguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202318,86713.7%2Recorded
SEMILLAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202316,38511.9%2Recorded
BIENguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202313,2049.6%2Recorded
URguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202310,4237.6%1Recorded
VIVAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20236,2614.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CABALguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20236,0724.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNEguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20235,3673.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPGguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20235,2973.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VOSguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20233,8112.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ELEFANTEguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20233,6202.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VICTORIAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20233,2252.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PINguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20232,8162%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PODEMOSguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20232,5741.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
WINAQguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20232,5431.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
U R N G - MAIZguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20232,3691.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MI FAMILIAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,6871.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CREOguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,6531.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AZULguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,6391.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIONISTAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,6331.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CAMBIOguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,5781.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
TODOSguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,4741.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MLPguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,2270.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPNguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,1870.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
P A Nguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20238020.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PHGguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20237530.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PRguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20237190.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FCN-NACIONguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20235250.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-06-16

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • FUERZA12.3%
  • TODOS11.2%
  • VAMOS10.2%
  • UNE8.7%
  • PC7.8%
  • UNIONISTA7.3%
  • VIVA5.6%
  • VICTORIA3.7%
  • PHG3.6%
  • WINAQ3.5%
  • BIEN3.4%
  • SEMILLA3.0%
  • PAN3.0%
  • CREO2.8%
  • VALOR2.4%
  • MLP2.2%
  • UCN2.0%
  • AVANZA1.4%
  • LIBRE1.4%
  • EG1.3%
  • URNG1.2%
  • UNIDOS0.7%
  • PODEMOS0.5%
  • CONVERGENCIA0.4%
  • PPT0.3%
Results for event-5db06155130189e868503065
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
FUERZA · JAVIER ALEJANDRO GRAMAJO ESCOBARguatemala/S6d250220e847/201914,73512.3%6Recorded
TODOSguatemala/S6d250220e847/201913,40611.2%2Recorded
VAMOSguatemala/S6d250220e847/201912,18910.2%2Recorded
UNEguatemala/S6d250220e847/201910,3738.7%1Recorded
PCguatemala/S6d250220e847/20199,3617.8%1Recorded
UNIONISTAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20198,7887.3%1Recorded
VIVAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20196,7365.6%1Recorded
VICTORIAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20194,4003.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PHGguatemala/S6d250220e847/20194,3213.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
WINAQguatemala/S6d250220e847/20194,1313.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
BIENguatemala/S6d250220e847/20194,1203.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SEMILLAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20193,6283%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PANguatemala/S6d250220e847/20193,6043%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CREOguatemala/S6d250220e847/20193,3242.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VALORguatemala/S6d250220e847/20192,8252.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MLPguatemala/S6d250220e847/20192,6122.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UCNguatemala/S6d250220e847/20192,3652%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AVANZAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191,7301.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
LIBREguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191,7221.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
EGguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191,5401.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
URNGguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191,4541.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDOSguatemala/S6d250220e847/20198580.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PODEMOSguatemala/S6d250220e847/20196040.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CONVERGENCIAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20195270.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPTguatemala/S6d250220e847/20193790.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2015-09-06

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • LIDER26.7%
  • TODOS16.7%
  • CREO- Unionista13.1%
  • FCN NACION10.5%
  • UNE9.3%
  • PAN4.9%
  • UCN4.6%
  • FUERZA3.8%
  • EG3.5%
  • WINAQ-URNG- MAÍZ2.6%
  • CONVERGENCIA2.5%
  • MR1.3%
  • CNN0.6%
Results for event-ea55fbbb953e8c98c7b5da3c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
LIDER · Edwin Felipe Escobar Hillguatemala/S6241581360d0/201530,72726.7%8Recorded
TODOS · Jose Domingo Sical Floresguatemala/S6241581360d0/201519,23416.7%2Recorded
CREO- Unionista · Vacanteguatemala/S6241581360d0/201515,08413.1%2Recorded
FCN NACION · Hugo Edilzar Barrios Moranguatemala/S6241581360d0/201512,07910.5%1Recorded
UNE · Vacanteguatemala/S6241581360d0/201510,7659.3%1Recorded
PAN · William Yovani Canesa Lemus Bustamanteguatemala/S6241581360d0/20155,6414.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UCN · Elmer Hernandez Y Hernandezguatemala/S6241581360d0/20155,2654.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA · Francisco Nectali Rodas Lemusguatemala/S6241581360d0/20154,3293.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
EG · Marco Vinicio Rafael Alvarez Muñozguatemala/S6241581360d0/20154,0043.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
WINAQ-URNG- MAÍZ · Claudia Lucia Vasquez Ramirezguatemala/S6241581360d0/20152,9592.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CONVERGENCIA · Axel Lauro Noriega Marroquinguatemala/S6241581360d0/20152,8722.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MR · Hector Giovanni Santos Cocoguatemala/S6241581360d0/20151,4801.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CNN · Humberto Alonzo Ochoa Garciaguatemala/S6241581360d0/20157130.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

90.30–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.0139371054596058, oldest_gap=9.980721133805751, previous_gap=1.1099789529950215

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

25.7percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[3.889778731237815,13.674018133457025,1.06829399102749,0,4.537712807206998,0,0,1.1980257579161744,0.3804981989751915,1.1835305884314051,11.875167600397168,62.19297419135074],[8.663515183910734,10.180235860087528,11.196672568736846,1.9752447131927973,5.625897838505996,0,0,2.7762001804029,0,7.339725386696957,3.0301005579126716,49.21240771055356],[9.348513269417813,0,16.703140197304432,4.572217590662776,0,26.683861331110183,0,0,0,0,0,42.692267611504796]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

35.47percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[3.889778731237815,13.674018133457025,1.06829399102749,0,4.537712807206998,0,0,1.1980257579161744,0.3804981989751915,1.1835305884314051,11.875167600397168,62.19297419135074],[8.663515183910734,10.180235860087528,11.196672568736846,1.9752447131927973,5.625897838505996,0,0,2.7762001804029,0,7.339725386696957,3.0301005579126716,49.21240771055356],[9.348513269417813,0,16.703140197304432,4.572217590662776,0,26.683861331110183,0,0,0,0,0,42.692267611504796]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

30.59percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[3.889778731237815,13.674018133457025,1.06829399102749,0,4.537712807206998,0,0,1.1980257579161744,0.3804981989751915,1.1835305884314051,11.875167600397168,62.19297419135074],[8.663515183910734,10.180235860087528,11.196672568736846,1.9752447131927973,5.625897838505996,0,0,2.7762001804029,0,7.339725386696957,3.0301005579126716,49.21240771055356],[9.348513269417813,0,16.703140197304432,4.572217590662776,0,26.683861331110183,0,0,0,0,0,42.692267611504796]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

Officeholder observations
PersonRoleAs ofAffiliationPrincipal?
Edwin Felipe Escobar HillAlcalde2015LIDERunknown
Ricardo Arnoldo Ramazzini GandaraSíndico I2015LIDERunknown
Danilo Raysuri Roca MurgaSíndico II2015LIDERunknown
Oscar Amed Juárez SosaSíndico III2015LIDERunknown
Dora Elizabeth Rodas GonzálezSíndico Suplente2015LIDERunknown
Maria Teresa Gomez López de MarroquínConcejal 12015LIDERunknown
Matilde Argelia Rouge ChávezConcejal 22015LIDERunknown
Sharol Ivonn Morales ChitayConcejal 32015LIDERunknown
Sergio Martin Ramírez MoralesConcejal 42015LIDERunknown
Rafael Eduardo Barrios MazariegosConcejal 52015TODOSunknown
Julia Gladys del Carmen Escobar CorzoConcejal 62015TODOSunknown
Henry Cohen MenéndezConcejal 72015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Francisco Rene Pineda FloresConcejal 82015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Edwin Geovany Marroquín MartínezConcejal 92015FCN-NACIÓNunknown
Glenda Lily Santos CabreraConcejal 102015UNEunknown
Rudy Estuardo Alvarez RecinosConcejal suplente 12015LIDERunknown
Mariaester Vaides GarcíaConcejal suplente 22015LIDERunknown
Christian Alejandro Monzón LantanConcejal suplente 32015TODOSunknown
Elmer Ariel Orellana ArizandietaConcejal suplente 42015CREO-Unionistaunknown
JAVIER ALEJANDRO GRAMAJO ESCOBARALCALDE2019FUERZAunknown
JOSE MARIO MONTES AMARRASÍNDICO PRIMERO2019FUERZAunknown
MANUEL ANTONIO LÓPEZ LEIVASÍNDICO SEGUNDO2019FUERZAunknown
MELVIN WILFREDO ESTUPE MALDONADOSÍNDICO TERCERO2019FUERZAunknown
ROSA MIRIAM FLORES LÓPEZSÍNDICO SUPLENTE2019FUERZAunknown
JORGE RODRIGO MEOÑO BARILLASCONCEJAL PRIMERO2019FUERZAunknown
MARIO OMAR GIRON ESTRADACONCEJAL SEGUNDO2019FUERZAunknown
RAFAEL EDUARDO BARRIOS MAZARIEGOSCONCEJAL TERCERO2019TODOSunknown
BRYHAM JOSUÉ MEDRANO BARRERACONCEJAL CUARTO2019TODOSunknown
GERMAN ANTONIO DE LA CRUZ CITANCONCEJAL QUINTO2019VAMOSunknown
JUAN ANTONIO SARCEÑO MAYENCONCEJAL SEXTO2019VAMOSunknown
DANILO RAYSURI ROCA MURGACONCEJAL SÉPTIMO2019UNEunknown
JOSÉ PABLO RAMAZZINI SALGUEROCONCEJAL OCTAVO2019PCunknown
EVER NOÉ CALDERÓN VILLATOROCONCEJAL NOVENO2019UNIONISTAunknown
FRANCISCO RAHI PINEDA ALVARENGACONCEJAL DÉCIMO2019VIVAunknown
JORGE FRANCISCO HERRERA CAJINAPRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019FUERZAunknown
AMANDA NOEMÍ FELIXSEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019TODOSunknown
GUSTAVO AGUILAR RODRIGUEZTERCER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019VAMOSunknown
FRANKLIN EMILIO SANCHEZ FUENTESCUARTO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019UNEunknown
MYNOR ALEXANDER MORALES ZURITAALCALDE MUNICIPAL2023VALORunknown
FRIDY DANILO MONTERROSO ARCHILASINDICO I2023VALORunknown
LESTER ARIEL NATARENO GÓMEZSINDICO II2023VALORunknown
ERICK MANOLO ARAUZ LÓPEZSINDICO III2023VALORunknown
LUIS MIGUEL LÓPEZ MARTÍNEZCONCEJAL I2023VALORunknown
FÉLIX ESTUARDO HERNÁNDEZ GÁLVEZCONCEJAL II2023VALORunknown
CINDY LETICIA MIRANDA RAMOSCONCEJAL III2023VALORunknown
JORGE RODRIGO MEOÑO BARILLASCONCEJAL IV2023VAMOSunknown
JOSÉ PABLO RAMAZZINI SALGUEROCONCEJAL V2023VAMOSunknown
MARIA DE LOURDES NIKOLASA SUBUYUJ HERNÁNDEZCONCEJAL VI2023SEMILLAunknown
VICTOR HUGO COYOY SÁNCHEZCONCEJAL VII2023SEMILLAunknown
JOSÉ HUMBERTO MELÉNDEZ PORRASCONCEJAL VIII2023BIENunknown
CRUZ RAYMUNDO ORDOÑEZ HERRERACONCEJAL IX2023BIENunknown
EDDLIN MARIEL LEÓN PAZCONCEJAL X2023URunknown
JAVIER FRANCISCO SALGUERO MARROQUÍNSINDICO SUPLENTE I2023VALORunknown
MARLON AROLDO CHÁVEZ SÁNCHEZCONCEJAL SUPLENTE I2023VALORunknown
WERNER DARECK ALEJANDRO SALGUERO LÓPEZCONCEJAL SUPLENTE II2023VAMOSunknown
SAMUEL ESTEBAN SÁNCHEZ DE LEÓNCONCEJAL SUPLENTE III2023SEMILLAunknown
MARVIN ADALBERTO BRAVO ESQUITECONCEJAL SUPLENTE IV2023BIENunknown

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “Villa Nueva — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-01-15. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.