Office briefing
Palencia — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Guatemala · Palencia / Guatemala · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-01-05
Read the complete original research briefing
Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Palencia / Guatemala
- Next election
- 2027-06-27
- Linked upcoming event
- next-ef6fb9b2be481e8c6a2766f7
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-06-25
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- VAMOS31.6%
- CAMBIO24.7%
- PHG12.7%
- VALOR8.5%
- UNE7.8%
- CABAL5.4%
- PPN4.1%
- VOS2.5%
- CREO1.3%
- VICTORIA0.9%
- PPG0.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAMOS · GUADALUPE ALBERTO REYES AGUILAR | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 5,861 | 31.6% | 6 | Recorded |
| CAMBIO | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 4,580 | 24.7% | 2 | Recorded |
| PHG | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 2,358 | 12.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| VALOR | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,584 | 8.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| UNE | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 1,445 | 7.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CABAL | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 998 | 5.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PPN | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 763 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VOS | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 462 | 2.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 238 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VICTORIA | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 159 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PPG | guatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023 | 123 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-06-16
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- UNE33.6%
- CREO17.2%
- VAMOS10.2%
- VALOR9.8%
- SEMILLA8.4%
- UCN6.6%
- EG5.4%
- FCN-NACION4.8%
- UNIONISTA1.7%
- VICTORIA1.6%
- PPT0.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNE · GUADALUPE ALBERTO REYES AGUILAR | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 5,121 | 33.6% | 6 | Recorded |
| CREO | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 2,624 | 17.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| VAMOS | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,559 | 10.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| VALOR | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,490 | 9.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SEMILLA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,274 | 8.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UCN | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 1,007 | 6.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| EG | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 830 | 5.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN-NACION | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 735 | 4.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIONISTA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 257 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| VICTORIA | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 246 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PPT | guatemala/S6d250220e847/2019 | 114 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2015-09-06
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown
- LIDER47.4%
- PP24.5%
- UNE7.4%
- FCN NACION7.1%
- CREO-Unionista6.7%
- PRI3.9%
- UCN3.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIDER · Guadalupe Alberto Reyes Aguilar | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 8,352 | 47.4% | 6 | Recorded |
| PP · Ramiro Pérez Hernández | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 4,318 | 24.5% | 2 | Recorded |
| UNE · Juan Luis del Cid Pinot | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,310 | 7.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FCN NACION · Walter Ernesto Calix Ramírez | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,258 | 7.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CREO-Unionista · Juan Antonio Morales Alvizures | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 1,183 | 6.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PRI · Esvi Orlando Bran Escobar | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 680 | 3.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UCN · José Rómulo Bran Muñoz | guatemala/S6241581360d0/2015 | 536 | 3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI43.320–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=6.897851488880512, oldest_gap=22.87237058456654, previous_gap=16.366258111031005
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility63.15percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[7.780948791125949,31.559959075978675,0,0,0,0,0,1.2815680361854505,0,0,0,59.37752409670992],[33.56492101985974,10.218260470603658,0,6.60024906600249,0,0,0,17.198662908828734,4.817460837648293,1.6844727010552534,8.350265451923708,17.565707544078126],[7.427567046549867,0,0,3.039065600725747,0,47.354992345637015,24.482621761070476,0,0,0,0,17.695753246016896]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility71.97percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[7.780948791125949,31.559959075978675,0,0,0,0,0,1.2815680361854505,0,0,0,59.37752409670992],[33.56492101985974,10.218260470603658,0,6.60024906600249,0,0,0,17.198662908828734,4.817460837648293,1.6844727010552534,8.350265451923708,17.565707544078126],[7.427567046549867,0,0,3.039065600725747,0,47.354992345637015,24.482621761070476,0,0,0,0,17.695753246016896]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility67.56percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[7.780948791125949,31.559959075978675,0,0,0,0,0,1.2815680361854505,0,0,0,59.37752409670992],[33.56492101985974,10.218260470603658,0,6.60024906600249,0,0,0,17.198662908828734,4.817460837648293,1.6844727010552534,8.350265451923708,17.565707544078126],[7.427567046549867,0,0,3.039065600725747,0,47.354992345637015,24.482621761070476,0,0,0,0,17.695753246016896]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
| Person | Role | As of | Affiliation | Principal? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalupe Alberto Reyes Aguilar | Alcalde | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Emeterio Rodas Aguilar | Síndico I | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Mateo Fernando Pineda Paz | Síndico II | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Hilmar Raúl de Jesús Osorio Alvizures | Síndico Suplente | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Tobías de Jesús Gómez Alvizures | Concejal 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Ramiro Tercero Aquino | Concejal 2 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Vilmer Alfredo Mijangos Reyes | Concejal 3 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Marco Tulio Alvizures Reyes | Concejal 4 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Abel de Jesús Gómez Cifuentes | Concejal 5 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| Marta Lidia Osorio del Cid de Montenegro | Concejal suplente 1 | 2015 | LIDER | unknown |
| Justo Alfredo Ruano Reyes | Concejal suplente 2 | 2015 | PP | unknown |
| GUADALUPE ALBERTO REYES AGUILAR | ALCALDE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| EMETERIO RODAS AGUILAR | SÍNDICO PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| ELIO MAIN CARRERA ALVIZURES | SÍNDICO SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JUAN ABRAHAM EUFRAGIO GALICIA | SÍNDICO SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| RAMIRO TERCERO AQUINO | CONCEJAL PRIMERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| MARÍA CRISTINA MIJANGOS JOLÓN DE VALIENTE | CONCEJAL SEGUNDO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| NERY GUILLERMO SANUNCINI GARRIDO | CONCEJAL TERCERO | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| JOSE OVIDIO ITZEP MONTENEGRO | CONCEJAL CUARTO | 2019 | CREO | unknown |
| MANUEL DE JESÚS FRANCO ESCOBAR | CONCEJAL QUINTO | 2019 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JOSE ROSA JOLÓN LÓPEZ | PRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | UNE | unknown |
| LUIS FELIPE HERNANDEZ GONZALEZ | SEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE | 2019 | CREO | unknown |
| GUADALUPE ALBERTO REYES AGUILAR | ALCALDE MUNICIPAL | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| EMETERIO RODAS AGUILAR | SINDICO I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| OSWALDO PÉREZ GUEVARA | SINDICO II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| RAMIRO TERCERO AQUINO | CONCEJAL I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JOSÉ OVIDIO ITZEP MONTENEGRO | CONCEJAL II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| NERY GUILLERMO SANUNCINI GARRIDO | CONCEJAL III | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JOSÉ ARTURO LEMUS ALVIZURES | CONCEJAL IV | 2023 | CAMBIO | unknown |
| CARLOS RODOLFO HERRERA LORENZANA | CONCEJAL V | 2023 | CAMBIO | unknown |
| JUAN DE JESÚS OSORIO GÓMEZ | CONCEJAL VI | 2023 | PHG | unknown |
| WALFRED ORLANDO FRANCO CANTÉ | CONCEJAL VII | 2023 | VALOR | unknown |
| ELIO MAIN CARRERA ALVIZURES | SINDICO SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| JOSÉ PABLO ALVIZURES RODRÍGUEZ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE I | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| OSWALDO DE JESÚS PINEDA DEL CID | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE II | 2023 | VAMOS | unknown |
| ASUNCIÓN DE JESÚS RAMOS CANTÉ | CONCEJAL SUPLENTE III | 2023 | CAMBIO | unknown |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
other · open
Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.
Sources
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20250225143526id_/https://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me/2023_Memoria_Elecciones.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20201027015650id_/http://www.tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2019.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: https://web.archive.org/web/20161124082300id_/http://tse.org.gt/images/memoriaselec/me2015.pdf · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
- Guatemala: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report) · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Palencia — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-01-05. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.