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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Guatemala — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Guatemala · Guatemala / Distrito Central · municipal · Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballotGT-M-00-01

Read the complete original research briefing

Final TSE report returns for 2023, 2019 and 2015, where this municipality existed. Court-ordered repeated contests and later replacements require the dated event review. The 2027 office call is pending.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Guatemala / Distrito Central
Next election
2027-06-27
Linked upcoming event
next-4eadbc5806014086e0fc5173
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-06-27 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-06-25

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • VALOR UNIONISTA24.6%
  • CREO24.5%
  • SEMILLA URNG-MAIZ WINAQ18.0%
  • UNE7.5%
  • PODEMOS4.2%
  • TODOS3.8%
  • AZUL2.7%
  • VAMOS2.1%
  • VIVA1.9%
  • VICTORIA1.8%
  • CAMBIO1.4%
  • BIEN1.3%
  • CABAL1.1%
  • PPN1.0%
  • P A N0.8%
  • MI FAMILIA0.5%
  • MLP0.5%
  • UR0.4%
  • PODER0.4%
  • FCN-NACION0.4%
  • PIN0.3%
  • PHG0.3%
  • PR0.3%
  • COMITE CIVICO LA GOTA DE AGUA0.3%
Results for event-2c7a4d503fa05874d2047ed0
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
VALOR UNIONISTA · RICARDO QUIÑONEZ LEMUSguatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023106,60424.6%8Recorded
CREOguatemala/S86641369d4ca/2023106,18124.5%3Recorded
SEMILLA URNG-MAIZ WINAQguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202377,88018%2Recorded
UNEguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202332,3127.5%1Recorded
PODEMOSguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202318,4134.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
TODOSguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202316,3883.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AZULguatemala/S86641369d4ca/202311,8072.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VAMOSguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20239,2362.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VIVAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20238,0641.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VICTORIAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20237,9331.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CAMBIOguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20236,1221.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
BIENguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20235,5661.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CABALguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20234,8511.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPNguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20234,3751%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
P A Nguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20233,4520.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MI FAMILIAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20232,2830.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MLPguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20232,0560.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
URguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,7370.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PODERguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,5610.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FCN-NACIONguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,5200.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PINguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,3810.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PHGguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,3630.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PRguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,3170.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
COMITE CIVICO LA GOTA DE AGUAguatemala/S86641369d4ca/20231,1100.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-06-16

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • UNIONISTA38.3%
  • CREO34.9%
  • SEMILLA9.7%
  • VIVA2.4%
  • VAMOS2.2%
  • FUERZA2.0%
  • PHG1.8%
  • EG1.7%
  • UNE1.6%
  • LIBRE1.1%
  • UCN0.9%
  • PPT0.8%
  • TODOS0.7%
  • FCN-NACION0.5%
  • VICTORIA0.5%
  • CONVERGENCIA0.4%
  • PC0.4%
  • BIEN0.3%
Results for event-6ccd47ba5595b631438211f6
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIONISTA · RICARDO QUIÑONEZ LEMUSguatemala/S6d250220e847/2019167,98538.3%9Recorded
CREOguatemala/S6d250220e847/2019152,93234.9%4Recorded
SEMILLAguatemala/S6d250220e847/201942,4179.7%1Recorded
VIVAguatemala/S6d250220e847/201910,6672.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VAMOSguatemala/S6d250220e847/20199,5272.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20198,6802%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PHGguatemala/S6d250220e847/20197,7941.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
EGguatemala/S6d250220e847/20197,4591.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNEguatemala/S6d250220e847/20197,0121.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
LIBREguatemala/S6d250220e847/20195,0131.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UCNguatemala/S6d250220e847/20193,7880.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PPTguatemala/S6d250220e847/20193,4160.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
TODOSguatemala/S6d250220e847/20193,0490.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FCN-NACIONguatemala/S6d250220e847/20192,0580.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VICTORIAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191,9810.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CONVERGENCIAguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191,6710.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PCguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191,5830.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
BIENguatemala/S6d250220e847/20191,5090.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2015-09-06

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · unknown

  • CREO-Unionista56.1%
  • VIVA19.8%
  • LIDER12.1%
  • FCN NACION3.7%
  • TODOS2.8%
  • URNG MAIZ2.4%
  • UCN1.6%
  • PP1.0%
  • CNN0.6%
Results for event-509f33a87a0892c57c2e6a88
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
CREO-Unionista · Alvaro Enrique Arzú Irigoyenguatemala/S6241581360d0/2015269,16156.1%11Recorded
VIVA · Luis Enrique Cruz Asturiasguatemala/S6241581360d0/201595,03619.8%2Recorded
LIDER · José Antonio Coro Garcíaguatemala/S6241581360d0/201558,14212.1%1Recorded
FCN NACION · Roberto Pirri Cruzguatemala/S6241581360d0/201517,9073.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
TODOS · Wiliam Noe Rivera Cariasguatemala/S6241581360d0/201513,5102.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
URNG MAIZ · Saul Ernesto Rojas Castilloguatemala/S6241581360d0/201511,3752.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UCN · Juan Francisco Morales Moralesguatemala/S6241581360d0/20157,4471.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PP · Gladys Anabella De León Ruízguatemala/S6241581360d0/20154,6341%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CNN · Marcial Rodrigo Gil Alvaguatemala/S6241581360d0/20152,6790.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

76.420–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.0975751536289664, oldest_gap=36.28428122219421, previous_gap=3.432518282213067

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

59.95percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[7.453542231818266,2.1305061912934358,3.7802875122257285,0,1.8601561202458063,0,0,24.49320895384672,0.350624665522523,0,0,59.93167432504752],[1.5989382976734217,2.172430855951895,0.695259964290682,0.863773284595967,2.4323837451914416,0,0,34.87290812033538,0.4692833737324446,38.30542640254845,9.672299739363025,8.917296216317288],[0,0,2.8152226234707465,1.5518107236851701,19.803663748642922,12.115667932926435,0.9656359464961836,0,0,0,0,62.747999024778544]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

87.09percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[7.453542231818266,2.1305061912934358,3.7802875122257285,0,1.8601561202458063,0,0,24.49320895384672,0.350624665522523,0,0,59.93167432504752],[1.5989382976734217,2.172430855951895,0.695259964290682,0.863773284595967,2.4323837451914416,0,0,34.87290812033538,0.4692833737324446,38.30542640254845,9.672299739363025,8.917296216317288],[0,0,2.8152226234707465,1.5518107236851701,19.803663748642922,12.115667932926435,0.9656359464961836,0,0,0,0,62.747999024778544]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

73.52percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Eleven exact standalone party labels in the certified tables. Coalition ballots, civic committees, unverified renamed parties and all others remain Other. Dissolved and newly entering parties can move to/from zero; this is not a voter-transfer estimate. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["UNE","VAMOS","TODOS","UCN","VIVA","LIDER","PP","CREO","FCN-NACION","UNIONISTA","SEMILLA","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[7.453542231818266,2.1305061912934358,3.7802875122257285,0,1.8601561202458063,0,0,24.49320895384672,0.350624665522523,0,0,59.93167432504752],[1.5989382976734217,2.172430855951895,0.695259964290682,0.863773284595967,2.4323837451914416,0,0,34.87290812033538,0.4692833737324446,38.30542640254845,9.672299739363025,8.917296216317288],[0,0,2.8152226234707465,1.5518107236851701,19.803663748642922,12.115667932926435,0.9656359464961836,0,0,0,0,62.747999024778544]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

Officeholder observations
PersonRoleAs ofAffiliationPrincipal?
Alvaro Enrique Arzú IrigoyenAlcalde2015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Luisa María Silvana Salas BedoyaSíndico I2015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Julio Enrique Montano MéndezSíndico II2015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Jaime Castillo CastellanosSíndico III2015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Marco Antonio Palacios LópezSíndico Suplente2015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Ricardo Quiñónez LemusConcejal 12015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Victor Manuel Alejandro Martínez RuízConcejal 22015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Alessandra maría Gallio Abud de DavidsonConcejal 32015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Luis Pedro Villanueva MirónConcejal 42015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Héctor Leonel Flores GarcíaConcejal 52015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Pablo Poroj GómezConcejal 62015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Anajoyce Oliva ValleConcejal 72015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Rosa María Engracia Botrán BrizConcejal 82015VIVAunknown
Aldo Nery Bonilla VicenteConcejal 92015VIVAunknown
Nery Mamfredo Rodas MéndezConcejal 102015LIDERunknown
Keving Roberto René Aldana ÁlvarezConcejal suplente 12015CREO-Unionistaunknown
José Gustavo Barrios GándaraConcejal suplente 22015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Luis Germán Pineda CastellanConcejal suplente 32015CREO-Unionistaunknown
Juan Pablo González BonillaConcejal suplente 42015VIVAunknown
RICARDO QUIÑONEZ LEMUSALCALDE2019UNIONISTAunknown
CARLOS ALEJANDRO SOBERANIS TOLEDOSÍNDICO PRIMERO2019UNIONISTAunknown
MARIA ELENA CRUZ URRUTIASÍNDICO SEGUNDO2019UNIONISTAunknown
JAIME CASTILLO CASTELLANOSSÍNDICO TERCERO2019UNIONISTAunknown
MARCO ANTONIO PALACIOS LOPEZSÍNDICO SUPLENTE2019UNIONISTAunknown
VÍCTOR MANUEL ALEJANDRO MARTINEZ RUIZCONCEJAL PRIMERO2019UNIONISTAunknown
ALESSANDRA MARIA GALLIO ABUD DE DAVIDSONCONCEJAL SEGUNDO2019UNIONISTAunknown
KEVING ROBERTO RENE ALDANA ALVAREZCONCEJAL TERCERO2019UNIONISTAunknown
LUIS GERMÁN PINEDA CASTELLANCONCEJAL CUARTO2019UNIONISTAunknown
ALEJANDRA MARÍA PAIZ SAMAYOACONCEJAL QUINTO2019UNIONISTAunknown
RICHARD LEE ABULARACHCONCEJAL SEXTO2019CREOunknown
PABLO POROJ GÓMEZCONCEJAL SÉPTIMO2019CREOunknown
JOSE PABLO MENDOZA FRANCOCONCEJAL OCTAVO2019CREOunknown
MARIA TATIANA ACUÑA ORELLANACONCEJAL NOVENO2019CREOunknown
VILMA LYLI CARAVANTES TOBIASCONCEJAL DÉCIMO2019SEMILLAunknown
ADRIANA REGINA PALMIERI DI POLLINA DE FERNANDEZPRIMER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019UNIONISTAunknown
ARGELIA GORDILLO MARTÍNEZ DE PINEDASEGUNDO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019UNIONISTAunknown
ISMAIL SALOMON PINEDATERCER CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019CREOunknown
JULIO CESAR LOARCA ZEACUARTO CONCEJAL SUPLENTE2019CREOunknown
RICARDO QUIÑONEZ LEMUSALCALDE MUNICIPAL2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
CARLOS ALEJANDRO SOBERANIS TOLEDOSINDICO I2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
MARIA ELENA CRUZ URRUTIASINDICO II2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
ALEJANDRA MARÍA PAÍZ SAMAYOASINDICO III2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
VICTOR MANUEL ALEJANDRO MARTÍNEZ RUIZCONCEJAL I2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
ALESSANDRA MARÍA GALLIO ABUDCONCEJAL II2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
KEVING ROBERTO RENÉ ALDANA ALVAREZCONCEJAL III2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
LUIS GERMAN PINEDA CASTELLANCONCEJAL IV2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
RICHARD LEE ABULARACHCONCEJAL V2023CREOunknown
ALEJANDRO ANTONIO ZELAYA ANDRADECONCEJAL VI2023CREOunknown
ISMAIL SALOMÓN PINEDACONCEJAL VII2023CREOunknown
ANA SILVIA NINOCHKA MATUTE RODRIGUEZCONCEJAL VIII2023SEMILLA URNG-MAIZ WINAQunknown
OSCAR PEDRO DANIEL GIRÓN SALGUEROCONCEJAL IX2023SEMILLA URNG-MAIZ WINAQunknown
JAVIER ANTONIO CORO FIGUEROACONCEJAL X2023UNEunknown
MANUEL FRANCISCO PARADA GONZÁLEZSINDICO SUPLENTE I2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
ADRIANA REGINA PALMIERI DI POLLINACONCEJAL SUPLENTE I2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
MARCO ANTONIO PALACIOS LÓPEZCONCEJAL SUPLENTE II2023VALOR UNIONISTAunknown
EDUARDO JOSÉ SMITT SANDOVALCONCEJAL SUPLENTE III2023CREOunknown
DAVID RENATO ANDRADE CRUZCONCEJAL SUPLENTE IV2023SEMILLA URNG-MAIZ WINAQunknown

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2015 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2015. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2019 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2019. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

  • other · open

    Country screen evidence: TSE Memoria Electoral 2023 — final municipal votes and adjudications (archived official report); Archived primary final electoral report; downloaded and parsed; source date 2023. All 340 municipalities have certified 2015/2019/2023 evidence, including valid repeated polls. Three usable vote series are available for 324 offices. Thirteen vote discrepancies, thirteen seat discrepancies and four mayor-proclamation issues remain flagged. Superseded initial polls are not extra cycles. Current incumbents and later replacements remain to be checked.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “Guatemala — Municipal corporation — shared mayor/council ballot.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/GT-M-00-01. Sources: guatemala--url-e1fb17bd9b2b6a792a269e9e, guatemala--url-af4ae16617a8a33434830962, guatemala--url-62f5b3430b66377f9a7c4645, guatemala--S86641369d4ca, guatemala--S6d250220e847, guatemala--S6241581360d0.