Office briefing

GUAYAS — Prefect

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · GUAYAS / GUAYAS · regional · PrefectEC-P-9

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: GUAYAS / GUAYAS
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-f76c2d2481a196d129463c74
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA34.3%
PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO25.7%
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO11.4%
ALIANZA LA FUERZA QUE NOS UNE6.4%
MOVIMIENTO VERDE, ÉTICO, REVOLUCIONARIO, DEMOCRÁTICO, (MOVER)6.2%
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES6.1%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA2.9%
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA2.1%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK1.7%
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR1.3%
PARTIDO AVANZA0.7%
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO RENOVACIÓN0.6%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.5%

Results for event-63860072292f40a5bbb4696b
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · MARCELA AGUINAGA	207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	732,912	34.3%	1	Recorded
PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · SUSANA GONZALEZ	1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	548,902	25.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · ANDRES GUSCHMER	226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	244,580	11.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA LA FUERZA QUE NOS UNE · NICOLAS LAPENTTI CARRION	1314ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	137,888	6.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO VERDE, ÉTICO, REVOLUCIONARIO, DEMOCRÁTICO, (MOVER) · HECTOR VANEGAS	186ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	132,627	6.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · FRANCESCO TABACCHI	99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	130,275	6.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · NORMA QUIÑONEZ	42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	62,777	2.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · RICHARD INTRIAGO	117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	44,694	2.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · JORGE TRIVIÑO	7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	36,959	1.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · JUAN CERVANTES GOMEZ	231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	28,760	1.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · EDGAR LEON	101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	14,925	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO RENOVACIÓN · ALEJANDRO GALLO PLAZA	246ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	12,633	0.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · DANILO XAVIER FELIX ORDOÑEZ	157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	10,921	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

6-MADERA DE GUERRERO47.9%
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL17.4%
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES13.3%
FUERZA.EC3.1%
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS2.6%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ2.6%
UNIDAD POPULAR2.2%
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE2.1%
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL1.8%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO1.0%
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA0.9%
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO0.9%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.8%
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA0.6%
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.6%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.6%
MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META)0.5%
UNION ECUATORIANA0.5%
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP0.4%
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.3%

Results for event-1fa39cebc60943c9af0f9c33
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · CARLOS LUIS MORALES	534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	941,006	47.9%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · PIERINA CORREA DELGADO	148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	342,473	17.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · POLY UGARTE	22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	260,935	13.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
FUERZA.EC · ALFREDO ADUM ZIADE	146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	61,169	3.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · CECILIA CALDERON	142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	51,795	2.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · JUANA VALLEJO	198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	50,238	2.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR · VALENTIN SALA	143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	43,812	2.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · LEONARDO ESCOBAR	158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	40,311	2.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · JIMMY SALAZAR	170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	34,463	1.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · MARIA ELSA VITERI ACAITURRI	8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	19,807	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · FERNANDO LEON	37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	17,581	0.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · VICTOR HUGO COLOMA RODRIGUEZ	219ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	16,880	0.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · ALBERTO MERCHAN	3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	15,503	0.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · ANTONIO ORBE	25ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	12,703	0.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JORGE CEDEÑO LOPEZ	152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	11,788	0.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · LUIS ALFREDO ALVARADO BUENAÑO	12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	11,466	0.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META) · MIGUEL PALACIOS FRUGONE	50ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	9,669	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · ALVARO GEOVANNI LITUMA ARGUDO	51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	8,959	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · JOHNNIE JORGGE ALAVA	235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	8,739	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · JORGE ALBERTO NORERO GONZALEZ	18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	6,563	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO53.0%
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO37.2%
MOVIMIENTO CREO5.8%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO1.3%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"1.0%
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO0.9%
PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL0.5%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.4%

Results for event-3b2291e936be9650e90c1f7d
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · JAIRALA VALLAZZA JIMMY	9017ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	1,095,922	53%	1	Recorded
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · ROHON HERVAS CESAR EDUARDO	9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	768,424	37.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · MONGE ORTEGA CESAR SANTIAGO	8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	119,826	5.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · FELIX ORDOÑEZ DANILO XAVIER	10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	26,547	1.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · SANTISTEVAN MARZO HONORIO RAFAEL	4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	20,093	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · SERRANO FIGUEROA LUIS ALBERTO	2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	18,779	0.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL · CANTOS ARTEAGA TITO ROLANDO	9ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	10,857	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · SANCHEZ PAZMINO SEGUNDO MIGUEL	5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	7,968	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

20.60–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.603209290213023, oldest_gap=15.833275317924446, previous_gap=30.44636952784023

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

8.08percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0.6978039163981816,1.7279822409487702,6.090881421023324,0,0,91.48333242162973],[0,0,0.5832561830445708,13.27332566917278,0.8943159736705564,0,85.24910217411207],[0,0,0.38522231504687643,5.793128654970761,0,0,93.82164902998237]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

8.57percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0.6978039163981816,1.7279822409487702,6.090881421023324,0,0,91.48333242162973],[0,0,0.5832561830445708,13.27332566917278,0.8943159736705564,0,85.24910217411207],[0,0,0.38522231504687643,5.793128654970761,0,0,93.82164902998237]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

8.32percentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0.6978039163981816,1.7279822409487702,6.090881421023324,0,0,91.48333242162973],[0,0,0.5832561830445708,13.27332566917278,0.8943159736705564,0,85.24910217411207],[0,0,0.38522231504687643,5.793128654970761,0,0,93.82164902998237]]

Source-reported control: Carlos Encalada; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor. Primary prefect association directory; page undated

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

3,251,617

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

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  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
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  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-P-9",
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    1911,
    1912,
    1913,
    1914,
    1915,
    1916,
    1917,
    1918,
    1919,
    1920,
    1921,
    1922,
    1923,
    1924,
    1925,
    1926,
    1927,
    1928
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “GUAYAS — Prefect.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-P-9. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.