Office briefing

ESMERALDAS — Prefect

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS · regional · PrefectEC-P-8

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-688f39579b33918ef02d89e8
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO51.1%
UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA24.9%
ESMERALDAS, ES PRIMERO11.1%
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR6.0%
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA2.7%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK2.6%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO1.6%

Results for event-b6ec54eb549459389da352f0
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · ROBERTA ZAMBRANO ORTIZ	32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	130,740	51.1%	1	Recorded
UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA · JANETH BUSTOS	1270ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	63,764	24.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ESMERALDAS, ES PRIMERO · RIDER SANCHEZ	1178ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	28,446	11.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · LINDER ALTAFUYA LOOR	231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	15,261	6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · BETTY ZAMBRANO FARIAS	117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	6,913	2.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · EVELIO ESTRADA	7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	6,596	2.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · JOSELITO MAFFARE VERA	39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	4,036	1.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO33.6%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ22.0%
UNIDAD POPULAR21.6%
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA14.8%
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA2.9%
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES2.1%
FUERZA.EC1.3%
UNION ECUATORIANA1.1%
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP0.7%

Results for event-e333215d1871c60fa4d05d8b
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · ROBERTA ZAMBRANO	1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	81,735	33.6%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · VICKO VILLACIS	198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	53,578	22%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR · LENIN CHICA ARTEAGA	143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	52,494	21.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · CARLOS VICENTE TENORIO MEDINA	13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	36,078	14.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · DAVID QUIÑONEZ AYOVI	25ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	6,980	2.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · CARLOS CELI	22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	5,081	2.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
FUERZA.EC · DENNY CEVALLOS CAPURRO	146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	3,274	1.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · EVELIO ESTRADA MATA	51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	2,599	1.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · ERNESTO SOSA	235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,757	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO39.9%
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS38.9%
PARTIDO AVANZA18.5%
MOVIMIENTO CREO1.9%
MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO0.9%

Results for event-24266b5d57baca5248b1856b
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · SOSA ROBINZON LUCIA DE LOURDES	2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	90,902	39.9%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · HURTADO ANGULO IVAN JACINTO	3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	88,482	38.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · CHICA ARTEAGA LENIN ALEJANDRO	6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	42,017	18.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · QUIJIJE LOOR ZOILA ROSA	8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	4,240	1.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO · GUTIERREZ ZAMBRANO MARIO CUARTO	8001ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	1,942	0.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

3.570–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=26.18745992273886, oldest_gap=1.0633483168778, previous_gap=11.559841692120738

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

20.14percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[51.11903533054943,0,2.5790206290370508,0,0,0,46.301944040413524],[33.556261700660166,0,0,2.0860019049495846,0,14.811804118632377,49.54593227575787],[0,18.46227530175804,0,1.8630565551908533,0,38.87900238594271,40.795665757108395]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

42.53percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[51.11903533054943,0,2.5790206290370508,0,0,0,46.301944040413524],[33.556261700660166,0,0,2.0860019049495846,0,14.811804118632377,49.54593227575787],[0,18.46227530175804,0,1.8630565551908533,0,38.87900238594271,40.795665757108395]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

31.34percentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[51.11903533054943,0,2.5790206290370508,0,0,0,46.301944040413524],[33.556261700660166,0,0,2.0860019049495846,0,14.811804118632377,49.54593227575787],[0,18.46227530175804,0,1.8630565551908533,0,38.87900238594271,40.795665757108395]]

Source-reported control: Diego Zambrano; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor. Primary prefect association directory; page undated

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

436,389

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": null,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 8,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 436389,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-P-8",
  "name": "ESMERALDAS",
  "office": "Prefect",
  "precinct_rows": [
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  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “ESMERALDAS — Prefect.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-P-8. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.