Office briefing

EL ORO — Prefect

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · EL ORO / EL ORO · regional · PrefectEC-P-7

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: EL ORO / EL ORO
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-3a11cd571e39cf64f1b8e439
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R.59.7%
JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-7715.1%
EL ORO VUELVE A BRILLAR11.9%
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR3.0%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK2.6%
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES2.6%
SUMATE Y CREE, SOMOS MAYORIA1.8%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO1.4%
EL ORO RENACE1.0%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ1.0%

Results for event-0462a33441741ebd42d8c9a8
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R. · CLEMENTE BRAVO	147ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	230,352	59.7%	1	Recorded
JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-77 · CARLOS VICTOR ZAMBRANO LANDIN	1250ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	58,211	15.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
EL ORO VUELVE A BRILLAR · ESTEBAN QUIROLA	1238ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	46,018	11.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · KURT SERRANO NOBLECILLA	231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	11,736	3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · VERONICA ARREAGA	7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	10,058	2.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · GABRIEL UGARTE	208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	9,882	2.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
SUMATE Y CREE, SOMOS MAYORIA · FERNANDO APOLO	1273ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	6,779	1.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · MARIO MINUCHE MURILLO	34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	5,233	1.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
EL ORO RENACE · COLON PRECIADO PINEDA	1368ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	3,958	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · OSCAR MAURICIO PEREIRA GOMEZ	157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	3,730	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

EL ORO PRIMERO27.7%
SIII CREO JUNTOS PODEMOS23.9%
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO21.6%
MOVIMIENTO AUTONÓMICO REGIONAL, MAR12.5%
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL8.8%
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE2.3%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.4%
UNION ECUATORIANA1.0%
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL0.7%

Results for event-ee1a720f30bd82117664d68d
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
EL ORO PRIMERO · CLEMENTE BRAVO	788ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	104,968	27.7%	1	Recorded
SIII CREO JUNTOS PODEMOS · ESTEBAN QUIROLA	679ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	90,409	23.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · CARLOS FALQUEZ BATALLAS	1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	81,822	21.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AUTONÓMICO REGIONAL, MAR · MONTGOMERY SANCHEZ REYES	4ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	47,432	12.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · EDUARDO ZAMBRANO	148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	33,150	8.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · CECILIA SERRANO	158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	8,662	2.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · HARRY ALVAREZ GARCIA	3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	5,463	1.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · TELMO GILBERTO CONCHA EGAS	51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	3,877	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · MARLON EMERSON REYES CHICA	170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	2,797	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

ALIANZA SUMA - PSC50.9%
ALIANZA PAIS-MAR41.6%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO3.3%
MOVIMIENTO CREO2.8%
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO1.4%

Results for event-b2a307a3340910e94db7f42a
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
ALIANZA SUMA - PSC · QUIROLA BUSTOS ESTEBAN LEOPOLDO	7010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	183,998	50.9%	1	Recorded
ALIANZA PAIS-MAR · SANCHEZ REYES MONTGOMERY	7007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	150,236	41.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · ARIADEL ZAMBRANO FLAVIO DE JESUS	10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	12,054	3.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · PALADINES ALVERCA JOSE LUIS	8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	9,955	2.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · GARZON VALAREZO FRANCISCO JAVIER	2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	5,057	1.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=44.60108250400952, oldest_gap=9.344588984223634, previous_gap=3.845686512758199

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

21.61percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,2.6059897864269854,0,0,0,97.39401021357301],[21.612869142585453,0,0,0,0,0,78.38713085741456],[0,0,0,2.7553279822861887,0,0,97.24467201771381]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

21.61percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,2.6059897864269854,0,0,0,97.39401021357301],[21.612869142585453,0,0,0,0,0,78.38713085741456],[0,0,0,2.7553279822861887,0,0,97.24467201771381]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

21.61percentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,2.6059897864269854,0,0,0,97.39401021357301],[21.612869142585453,0,0,0,0,0,78.38713085741456],[0,0,0,2.7553279822861887,0,0,97.24467201771381]]

Source-reported control: Karina Torres; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor. Primary prefect association directory; page undated

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

545,032

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

{
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  "cne_canton": null,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 7,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 545032,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-P-7",
  "name": "EL ORO",
  "office": "Prefect",
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  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “EL ORO — Prefect.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-P-7. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.