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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS — Prefect

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS / STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS · regional · PrefectEC-P-23

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS / STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-7b33b266bfb659da7391f55a
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • 5-100 SOMOS TODOS41.3%
  • ALTERNATIVA28.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ10.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO6.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYE3.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK3.0%
  • GENTE QUE SUMA2.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO ALIANZA TSÁCHILA1.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO VERDE, ÉTICO, REVOLUCIONARIO, DEMOCRÁTICO, (MOVER)1.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO1.4%
Results for event-a027ce264bb7534674e1e9f1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
5-100 SOMOS TODOS · JOHANA NUÑEZ1383ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023106,39741.3%1Recorded
ALTERNATIVA · VERONICA ZURITA1051ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202374,49028.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · FREDDY MORA157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202326,47610.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · HENRY ALVAREZ32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202316,7436.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYE · ANGEL GENDE CALAZACON18ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20238,7973.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · MANUEL GUZÑAY7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237,8173%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
GENTE QUE SUMA · MARDEN CORDOVA1086ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,7052.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO ALIANZA TSÁCHILA · CINDI LIZETH ROLDAN VIVERO105ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,0001.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO VERDE, ÉTICO, REVOLUCIONARIO, DEMOCRÁTICO, (MOVER) · MANUEL OCHOA186ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,8191.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · MANUEL SILVERIO YUQUE39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,5011.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • UNIDAD 20/10039.0%
  • ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO POSITIVO - PSC LISTA 63-623.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL12.0%
  • ACUERDO CIUDADANO6.3%
  • ALIANZA ELECTORAL ALIANZA PAÍS LISTA 35 Y MOVIMIENTO VICTORIA LISTA 675.5%
  • UNIDAD DEMOCRÁTICA TSÁCHILA3.8%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA1.9%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA1.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP1.0%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE1.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL0.9%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.9%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA0.6%
Results for event-cbf3bb996d8fd5f5ec0d2322
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDAD 20/100 · JOHANA NUÑEZ704ecuador/Sed7b513864/201991,48339%1Recorded
ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO POSITIVO - PSC LISTA 63-6 · GRUBER ZAMBRANO674ecuador/Sed7b513864/201955,81723.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · AMADA MARIA ORTIZ OLAYA148ecuador/Sed7b513864/201928,04712%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ACUERDO CIUDADANO · MIGUEL ANGEL MORETA787ecuador/Sed7b513864/201914,6636.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA ELECTORAL ALIANZA PAÍS LISTA 35 Y MOVIMIENTO VICTORIA LISTA 67 · MARY VERDUGA688ecuador/Sed7b513864/201912,8355.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD DEMOCRÁTICA TSÁCHILA · JAVIER AGUAVIL802ecuador/Sed7b513864/20199,0013.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · JUAN CARLOS CALAZACON25ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,4861.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · JOSE AGUAVIL3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,3381.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · NOE SARMIENTO37ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,7601.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · WILTER VERA235ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,3271%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · JORGE CHAMORRO HARO158ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,2931%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · GALO CHIRIBOGA RON170ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,1150.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · EDISON NARANJO ARMIJO8ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,9950.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · JANNINA MERA ACOSTA51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,3180.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS58.5%
  • SUMA Y AVANZA 8-2315.8%
  • UNIDAD PROVINCIAL TSÁCHILA9.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO9.2%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO3.5%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO3.1%
Results for event-9ac000cda98b9f6f662de64e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · BENITEZ CALVA EDGAR GEOVANNY3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014136,71458.5%1Recorded
SUMA Y AVANZA 8-23 · DELGADO TELLO JORGE WASHINGTON23008ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201436,81815.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD PROVINCIAL TSÁCHILA · MIÑACA LOPEZ ARTURO GERARDO23007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201423,0599.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · VIVANCO TINOCO ANA ROSA8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201421,3849.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · CAMPOVERDE BALCAZAR LUIS BOLIVAR2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20148,2573.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · ZAMBRANO ZAMBRANO PEDRO ANTONIO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20147,2723.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

18.660–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=12.37928960794584, oldest_gap=42.78127997807319, previous_gap=15.210808689941057

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

9.53percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[6.495955304661584,0,3.0328425381675688,0,0,0,90.47120215717085],[0,0,0,0,1.6035619546396678,0,98.39643804536033],[0,0,0,9.157873098533644,0,58.54888995477594,32.29323694669042]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

67.71percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[6.495955304661584,0,3.0328425381675688,0,0,0,90.47120215717085],[0,0,0,0,1.6035619546396678,0,98.39643804536033],[0,0,0,9.157873098533644,0,58.54888995477594,32.29323694669042]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

38.62percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[6.495955304661584,0,3.0328425381675688,0,0,0,90.47120215717085],[0,0,0,0,1.6035619546396678,0,98.39643804536033],[0,0,0,9.157873098533644,0,58.54888995477594,32.29323694669042]]

Source-reported control: Johana Núñez García; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor. Primary prefect association directory; page undated

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-11397,449
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": null,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 23,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 397449,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-P-23",
  "name": "STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS",
  "office": "Prefect",
  "precinct_rows": [
    4189,
    4190,
    4191,
    4192,
    4193,
    4194,
    4195,
    4196,
    4197,
    4198,
    4199,
    4200,
    4201,
    4202,
    4203,
    4204,
    4205,
    4206,
    4207,
    4208,
    4209,
    4210,
    4211,
    4212,
    4213,
    4214,
    4215,
    4216,
    4217,
    4218,
    4219,
    4220,
    4221,
    4222,
    4223,
    4224,
    4225,
    4226,
    4227,
    4228,
    4229,
    4230,
    4231,
    4232,
    4233,
    4234,
    4235,
    4236,
    4237,
    4238,
    4239,
    4240,
    4241,
    4242,
    4243,
    4244,
    4245,
    4246,
    4247,
    4248,
    4249,
    4250,
    4251,
    4252,
    4253,
    4254,
    4255,
    4256,
    4257,
    4258,
    4259,
    4260,
    4261,
    4262,
    4263,
    4264,
    4265,
    4266,
    4267,
    4268,
    4269,
    4270,
    4271,
    4272,
    4273,
    4274,
    4275,
    4276,
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    4280,
    4281,
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    4283,
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    4285,
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    4288,
    4289,
    4290,
    4291,
    4292,
    4293,
    4294,
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    4297,
    4298,
    4299,
    4300,
    4301,
    4302,
    4303,
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    4309,
    4310,
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    4321,
    4322,
    4323,
    4324,
    4325,
    4326,
    4327,
    4328,
    4329,
    4330,
    4331
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “STO. DGO. DE LOS TSÁCHILAS — Prefect.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-P-23. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.