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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

ORELLANA — Prefect

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · ORELLANA / ORELLANA · regional · PrefectEC-P-22

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
ORELLANA / ORELLANA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-34ef97239c92da4a0871e8d8
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • UNIDAD ORELLANENSE34.4%
  • ALIANZA DE LA RENOVACION28.9%
  • ALIANZA GESTIÓN Y DESARROLLO17.4%
  • ALIANZA CIUDADANA7.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA6.6%
  • ALIANZA UNIDAD AMAZÓNICA5.1%
Results for event-c54a53ebb75f05219a58ea6f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDAD ORELLANENSE · MAGALI ORELLANA1003ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202333,37934.4%1Recorded
ALIANZA DE LA RENOVACION · BOLIVAR MIELES1025ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202328,10228.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA GESTIÓN Y DESARROLLO · DANIEL LOZADA1030ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202316,87717.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA CIUDADANA · MONICA GUEVARA1013ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237,3257.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · SALOMON TORRES LLERENA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236,4276.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA UNIDAD AMAZÓNICA · ESTUARDO HIDALGO1069ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,9835.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA ORELLANA35.1%
  • ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK LISTA 18 Y MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO LISTA 426.7%
  • ALIANZA VAMOS POR EL CAMBIO19.0%
  • ALIANZA AVANZAMOS JUNTOS13.4%
  • ALIANZA SI PODEMOS CON FE3.0%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.9%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO1.0%
Results for event-aaeeb1ea237025af94305085
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA ORELLANA · MAGALI ORELLANA502ecuador/Sed7b513864/201930,20335.1%1Recorded
ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK LISTA 18 Y MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO LISTA 4 · RODRIGO ROMAN581ecuador/Sed7b513864/201923,00526.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA VAMOS POR EL CAMBIO · DARWIN UBALDO GARCIA JARAMILLO586ecuador/Sed7b513864/201916,39819%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA AVANZAMOS JUNTOS · ANITA RIVAS574ecuador/Sed7b513864/201911,51613.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA SI PODEMOS CON FE · TOMAS ZEVALLOS VERA801ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,5483%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JUAN MARQUEZ152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,6131.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · EDWIN BRAVO145ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198701%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK46.3%
  • DESPIERTA ORELLANA29.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS20.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"3.8%
Results for event-b9b1ded6956bb718a8c368ec
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · LLORI ABARCA ESPERANZA GUADALUPE5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201433,17346.3%1Recorded
DESPIERTA ORELLANA · GARCIA JARAMILLO DARWIN UBALDO22005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201420,99629.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · CORTEZ RODRIGUEZ DORIX ROSARIO3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201414,80220.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · SANTILLAN ARIAS GERARDO ADALBERTO4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,7213.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

62.670–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=5.434995313771335, oldest_gap=16.985158734586847, previous_gap=8.354903485659232

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,46.27155052167606,0,0,20.646655135858953,33.08179434246499]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,46.27155052167606,0,0,20.646655135858953,33.08179434246499]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,46.27155052167606,0,0,20.646655135858953,33.08179434246499]]

Source-reported control: Magali Orellana Marquínez; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor. Primary prefect association directory; page undated

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-11145,643
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": null,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 22,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 145643,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-P-22",
  "name": "ORELLANA",
  "office": "Prefect",
  "precinct_rows": [
    4097,
    4098,
    4099,
    4100,
    4101,
    4102,
    4103,
    4104,
    4105,
    4106,
    4107,
    4108,
    4109,
    4110,
    4111,
    4112,
    4113,
    4114,
    4115,
    4116,
    4117,
    4118,
    4119,
    4120,
    4121,
    4122,
    4123,
    4124,
    4125,
    4126,
    4127,
    4128,
    4129,
    4130,
    4131,
    4132,
    4133,
    4134,
    4135,
    4136,
    4137,
    4138,
    4139,
    4140,
    4141,
    4142,
    4143,
    4144,
    4145,
    4146,
    4147,
    4148,
    4149,
    4150,
    4151,
    4152,
    4153,
    4154,
    4155,
    4156,
    4157,
    4158,
    4159,
    4160,
    4161,
    4162,
    4163,
    4164,
    4165,
    4166,
    4167,
    4168,
    4169,
    4170,
    4171,
    4172,
    4173,
    4174,
    4175,
    4176,
    4177,
    4178,
    4179,
    4180,
    4181,
    4182,
    4183,
    4184,
    4185,
    4186,
    4187,
    4188
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “ORELLANA — Prefect.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-P-22. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.