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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

PICHINCHA — Prefect

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · PICHINCHA / PICHINCHA · regional · PrefectEC-P-17

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
PICHINCHA / PICHINCHA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-85f808179d216c8c922e23ca
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA28.0%
  • JUNTOS POR LA GENTE25.6%
  • VA POR TI15.8%
  • UIO, UNIDOS INCLUYENTES Y ORGANIZADOS8.5%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA5.2%
  • QUITO VUELVE3.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO3.0%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR2.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO TODOS2.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO2.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES1.9%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA1.7%
Results for event-c69dbd0ba3c809e92f80beba
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · PAOLA PABON207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023416,50028%1Recorded
JUNTOS POR LA GENTE · GUILLERMO CHURUCHUMBI1091ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023380,85925.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VA POR TI · EDUARDO DEL POZO1418ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023234,83615.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UIO, UNIDOS INCLUYENTES Y ORGANIZADOS · ELSA GUERRA1397ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023127,0808.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · ROBERTO ALTAMIRANO MONTALVO117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202376,7585.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
QUITO VUELVE · DANIELA ZAMBRANO1319ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202357,3503.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO · ANDREA HIDALGO124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202344,4963%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · CECILIA JARAMILLO231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202333,8802.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO TODOS · GONZALO PEREZ149ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202333,2632.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · ANDRES FELIPE CASTILLO32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202330,1502%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · JACINTO ESPINOZA CASTILLO208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202328,9051.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · KOYA SHUGULI101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202325,7351.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL22.1%
  • ALIANZA IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA - DEMOCRACIA SÍ - VIVE20.7%
  • ALIANZA CREO 21 - AHORA 6514.9%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA10.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION7.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO4.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA3.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK2.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS2.4%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA2.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACCION DEMOCRATICA ECUATORIANA, ADE1.8%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE1.8%
  • ALIANZA ECUATORIANO UNIDO-PARTIDO SOCIALISTA1.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO TODOS1.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP1.0%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO0.9%
  • FUERZA.EC0.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.7%
Results for event-a41e7ed84851e84a44ad4c72
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · PAOLA PABON CARANQUI148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019311,06522.1%1Recorded
ALIANZA IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA - DEMOCRACIA SÍ - VIVE · JUAN ZAPATA523ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019291,30620.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA CREO 21 - AHORA 65 · FEDERICO PEREZ519ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019209,45014.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · PATRICIO UBIDIA51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019153,09710.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · ESTEBAN MOSCOSO18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019107,2397.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · DIEGO SALGADO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/201960,8504.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · RENE ESPIN13ecuador/Sed7b513864/201943,3703.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · PABLO JAIME VELEZ RUEDA12ecuador/Sed7b513864/201933,7912.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · VINICIO BAQUERO ORDOÑEZ142ecuador/Sed7b513864/201933,5032.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · JAVIER ORTI TORRES25ecuador/Sed7b513864/201932,4582.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ACCION DEMOCRATICA ECUATORIANA, ADE · JOFFRE PINZON MERINO226ecuador/Sed7b513864/201925,3301.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · MARIO MALDONADO SANCHEZ158ecuador/Sed7b513864/201925,0501.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA ECUATORIANO UNIDO-PARTIDO SOCIALISTA · ALONSO MORENO615ecuador/Sed7b513864/201917,2301.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO TODOS · ANGEL ZAPATA166ecuador/Sed7b513864/201915,2981.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · MARCELO HALLO235ecuador/Sed7b513864/201914,0181%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · SARA PAREDES145ecuador/Sed7b513864/201913,1040.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC · LUIS RAMIRO SIMBAÑA VASCONEZ146ecuador/Sed7b513864/201910,2470.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · BLADIMIR BERNYS CHAVEZ3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20199,2350.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS61.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO28.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK4.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"4.2%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1.8%
Results for event-0ae33a0fe71c6a95d02c7871
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · BAROJA NARVAEZ MILTON GUSTAVO3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014887,90261%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · GOMEZ DE LA TORRE BONIFAZ RODRIGO ANTONIO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014412,55328.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · PASQUEL BELTRAN JUAN FRANCISCO5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201468,8864.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · MACHUCA ARROBA JUAN CARLOS4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201460,5914.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · GUZHÑAY QUITO LEON ROBALINO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201426,1021.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

74.390–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=2.3923152719940504, oldest_gap=32.64683379646354, previous_gap=1.4056932033143568

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

7.79percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[2.0237452779276848,1.727399161773432,0,0,0,0,96.24885556029889],[4.328985850583471,0,2.403956629039705,0,0,3.085425083645113,90.18163243673172],[0,0,4.731070840378727,28.334022419806132,0,60.98085621626967,5.954050523545467]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

88.56percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[2.0237452779276848,1.727399161773432,0,0,0,0,96.24885556029889],[4.328985850583471,0,2.403956629039705,0,0,3.085425083645113,90.18163243673172],[0,0,4.731070840378727,28.334022419806132,0,60.98085621626967,5.954050523545467]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

48.18percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[2.0237452779276848,1.727399161773432,0,0,0,0,96.24885556029889],[4.328985850583471,0,2.403956629039705,0,0,3.085425083645113,90.18163243673172],[0,0,4.731070840378727,28.334022419806132,0,60.98085621626967,5.954050523545467]]

Source-reported control: Paola Pabón Caranqui; Primary prefect association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Current party affiliation unverified; older biography labels are not copied to a successor. Primary prefect association directory; page undated

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-112,408,731
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": null,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 17,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 2408731,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-P-17",
  "name": "PICHINCHA",
  "office": "Prefect",
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  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “PICHINCHA — Prefect.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-P-17. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.