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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Juan Montalvo / Cayambe / Pichincha — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · Juan Montalvo / Cayambe / Pichincha / Pichincha · other · Parish boardEC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J

Read the complete original research briefing

Only one earlier election exists for this new office; two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Official post-election party votes and elected statistics are now imported. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The first-election statistical return and elected roster are imported. Its ballot-total and dataset-code notes remain visible. Later replacements and current control still require dated verification.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Juan Montalvo / Cayambe / Pichincha / Pichincha
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-239074dd716ab7cff18159ff
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

Only one earlier election exists for this new office; two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Official post-election party votes and elected statistics are now imported. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The first-election statistical return and elected roster are imported. Its ballot-total and dataset-code notes remain visible. Later replacements and current control still require dated verification.

2024-03-17

Special · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYE41.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA25.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO20.7%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR12.4%
Results for event-05a37615479bf4bb94cc3126
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYE18ecuador/SA40-EC-PARISH-VOTES/20241,36841.6%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA207ecuador/SA40-EC-PARISH-VOTES/202483325.3%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO39ecuador/SA40-EC-PARISH-VOTES/202467920.7%1Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR231ecuador/SA40-EC-PARISH-VOTES/202440712.4%1Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Only one earlier election exists for this new office; two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Official post-election party votes and elected statistics are now imported. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The first-election statistical return and elected roster are imported. Its ballot-total and dataset-code notes remain visible. Later replacements and current control still require dated verification.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

Officeholder observations
PersonRoleAs ofAffiliationPrincipal?
ALVAREZ QUISHPE MARCO VINICIOParish board2024-03-17PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULARprincipal
CASTRO GALARZA JAQUELINE ALEXANDRAParish board2024-03-17PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULARsubstitute
MALDONADO FERNANDEZ LUIS FELIPEParish board2024-03-17MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYEprincipal
SEVILLA SANTILLAN MARCIA GEOCONDAParish board2024-03-17MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYEsubstitute
CHICAIZA LECHON LUZ AMPAROParish board2024-03-17MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYEprincipal
GUALAVISI ESCOBAR ANGEL REMIGIOParish board2024-03-17MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYEsubstitute
CACHIGUANGO MOSQUERA MILTON GUSTAVOParish board2024-03-17PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANOprincipal
FARINANGO NAVAS MARIA GLORIAParish board2024-03-17PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANOsubstitute
AGUAS LUGMAÑA FRANKLIN DAVIDParish board2024-03-17MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANAprincipal
PUJOTA MALDONADO NANCY VERONICAParish board2024-03-17MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANAsubstitute

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-116,996
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 65,
  "cne_parish": 4765,
  "cne_province": 17,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 6996,
  "electors_july": 6996,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J",
  "name": "Juan Montalvo / Cayambe / Pichincha",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3310,
    3311
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 40,
  "register_pdf_row": 36,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4197.6
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Only one earlier election exists for this new office; two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Official post-election party votes and elected statistics are now imported. Predecessor parish/canton votes are not assigned to the new office. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The first-election statistical return and elected roster are imported. Its ballot-total and dataset-code notes remain visible. Later replacements and current control still require dated verification. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

  • structural exception · open

    New-unit structural history exception: Only one earlier election exists for this new office. Its official party-vote vector and elected-candidate statistics are imported. Two older cycles are structurally inapplicable. Source ballot-total discrepancies and dataset-specific code joins remain documented. Predecessor votes are not assigned to this office.

  • other · open

    Official statistical ballot-total discrepancy: Published suffragants 3,795 exceed party votes + blank + null (3,794) by 1. Source values are retained; no missing vote is allocated.

Sources

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “Juan Montalvo / Cayambe / Pichincha — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-NEW-JUAN-MONTALVO-J. Sources: ecuador--url-02dbc0e387d2aff71232cbc7, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-VOTES, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-CANDIDATES, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER, ecuador--url-c007dad43972ba7a215bf08c.