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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

GRAL. A. ELIZALDE / GUAYAS — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · GRAL. A. ELIZALDE / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-985

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
GRAL. A. ELIZALDE / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-3b9e3c597b31e24e3a0f837d
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA53.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO24.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES8.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK6.2%
  • 1-335.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO1.4%
Results for event-8910f0a8c7672ee489441d22
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · MAURICIO ROSADO207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,86753.7%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · ELIECER RODRIGUEZ32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,22124.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · CARLOS VILLIGUA99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20238078.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · MARITZA PALMA7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235656.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
1-33 · SANDRA VILLACRES1440ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234745.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · WALTER QUEZADA34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231261.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ42.0%
  • 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO30.7%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO10.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES5.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO4.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS3.1%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR1.9%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.3%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.6%
Results for event-0e815a7ad8f2c6dfb7b61f84
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · GREGORIO RODRIGUEZ198ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,40642%1Recorded
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · MAURICIO ROSADO MENDOZA534ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,48630.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · JOSE RUBEN MIRANDA SACOTO145ecuador/Sed7b513864/201986510.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · RONALD MIRANDA HUALLE22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194385.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · ITALO CORDOVA PEÑAFIEL219ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193584.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · MARIO MATA CEDEÑO142ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192523.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR · RUDIGER ROMERO IBARRA143ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191531.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · MILTON ERNESTO PINTO TORRES3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191041.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · JOSE MORALES158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019450.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO CREO25.7%
  • ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO22.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA19.7%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA16.8%
  • 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO11.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"3.4%
Results for event-ee699efd94343fc8377de614
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO CREO · MIRANDA SACOTO JOSE RUBEN8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,83525.7%1Recorded
ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · CORDOVA PEÑAFIEL ITALO ALEJANDRO9017ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,63122.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · MATA CEDEÑO MARIO FERNANDO13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,41119.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · MINUCHE AGUILAR ROBERTO MAURICIO6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,20016.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · RIOS CARTAJENA WASHINGTON ENRIQUE9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201482911.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · SANCHEZ MONTALVO RUPERTO ANIBAL4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142423.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=29.205298013245038, oldest_gap=2.8539451594851712, previous_gap=11.348217589737263

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

34.26percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[24.514348785871963,0,6.236203090507726,8.907284768211921,0,0,60.342163355408395],[0,0,0,5.40273837424448,0,0,94.59726162575551],[0,16.787912702853944,0,25.67151650811416,19.739787353105765,0,37.800783435926135]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

56.8percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[24.514348785871963,0,6.236203090507726,8.907284768211921,0,0,60.342163355408395],[0,0,0,5.40273837424448,0,0,94.59726162575551],[0,16.787912702853944,0,25.67151650811416,19.739787353105765,0,37.800783435926135]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

45.53percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[24.514348785871963,0,6.236203090507726,8.907284768211921,0,0,60.342163355408395],[0,0,0,5.40273837424448,0,0,94.59726162575551],[0,16.787912702853944,0,25.67151650811416,19.739787353105765,0,37.800783435926135]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1112,046
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 985,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 9,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 12046,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-985",
  "name": "GRAL. A. ELIZALDE / GUAYAS",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1578
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “GRAL. A. ELIZALDE / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-985. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.