Office briefing
BALAO / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · BALAO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-95
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- BALAO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-7f817a5ec79d5027681aece3
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA31.8%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO23.4%
- MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO10.1%
- PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO8.0%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA6.9%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES6.7%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR6.4%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA3.8%
- BALAO PRIMERO2.8%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · SANDY GOMEZ | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,065 | 31.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · STALYN LUCAS | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,990 | 23.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO · PRICILA PACHECO | 124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,285 | 10.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · REMIGIO MOLINA | 1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,025 | 8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · FAUSTINO QUIÑONEZ | 42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 877 | 6.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · MARTHA NOBOA NOBLECILLA | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 855 | 6.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · MAXIMO RAMON | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 823 | 6.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · LENIN CAMACHO | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 481 | 3.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| BALAO PRIMERO · PAUL NOBOA | 1179ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 353 | 2.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · TAMARA ULLOA | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 30 | 0.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO27.2%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES21.4%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ13.8%
- ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - ECUATORIANO UNIDO Y PAIS13.5%
- MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS8.0%
- MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL5.7%
- FUERZA.EC4.4%
- ALIANZA POPULAR BALAOENSE3.8%
- MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP1.2%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.6%
- MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META)0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · JONNATAN MOLINA | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,287 | 27.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · STALYN LUCAS AGUAYO | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,583 | 21.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · OLMEDO EUGENIO | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,671 | 13.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - ECUATORIANO UNIDO Y PAIS · JUAN VICENTE QUEZADA BRITO | 666ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,635 | 13.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · JUAN EZEQUIEL JAEN LAINES | 142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 967 | 8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · JULIA JAIGUA | 170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 693 | 5.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · SANDRA ELISABETH PACHECO | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 538 | 4.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POPULAR BALAOENSE · LISIMACO MARTILLO LANDIVAR | 644ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 455 | 3.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · JORGE ANIBAL PUA EUGENIO | 235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 147 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · NICOLE HOLGUIN | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 68 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META) · GUZ GILBERT PAUTA MURILLO | 50ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 49 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO56.0%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO38.2%
- ALIANZA UNIDAD DE LAS IZQUIERDAS EN LA DIVERSIDAD3.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO2.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · CASTRO CHIRIBOGA LUIS IVAN | 9017ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,544 | 56% | 1 | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · MOLINA YANEZ REMIGIO JONNATAN | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,776 | 38.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA UNIDAD DE LAS IZQUIERDAS EN LA DIVERSIDAD · CAMBISACA EUGENIO MAURICIO BOLIVAR | 9016ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 342 | 3.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · GOMEZ VERA DEYSI JASMIN | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 235 | 2.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI57.110–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.408948685857322, oldest_gap=17.863999191674246, previous_gap=5.821549656826264
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility14.67percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0.2346683354192741,6.688047559449312,0,0,93.07728410513143],[0,0,0,21.35946415281568,0,0,78.64053584718431],[0,0,0,2.3744569061331715,0,0,97.62554309386682]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility18.99percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0.2346683354192741,6.688047559449312,0,0,93.07728410513143],[0,0,0,21.35946415281568,0,0,78.64053584718431],[0,0,0,2.3744569061331715,0,0,97.62554309386682]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility16.83percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0.2346683354192741,6.688047559449312,0,0,93.07728410513143],[0,0,0,21.35946415281568,0,0,78.64053584718431],[0,0,0,2.3744569061331715,0,0,97.62554309386682]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 17,374 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 95,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 17374,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-95",
"name": "BALAO / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1650,
1651,
1857,
1877
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “BALAO / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-95. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.