Office briefing
NOBOL / PIEDRAHITA / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · NOBOL / PIEDRAHITA / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-940
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- NOBOL / PIEDRAHITA / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-16fecbfeccd07daa90e56eb7
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA60.1%
- PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO32.8%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES6.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO0.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · MARVIN SALAS CERCADO | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 9,294 | 60.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · MAYARLIN BARZOLA | 1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,077 | 32.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · JAYRA MANZABA | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 946 | 6.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · DARLA BARZOLA | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 93 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · JUANA MAGALLANES | 42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 67 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - ECUATORIANO UNIDO Y PAIS21.4%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES20.8%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO20.4%
- UNIDAD POPULAR18.0%
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA7.9%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL4.6%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE2.6%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.7%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ1.5%
- MOVIMIENTO SALUD Y TRABAJO0.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - ECUATORIANO UNIDO Y PAIS · MARVIN SALAS CERCADO | 691ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,847 | 21.4% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · JOSE VILLAMAR FIGUEROA | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,756 | 20.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · JOSE ANDRADE SANTANA | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,709 | 20.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · BYRON ALCIVAR TORRES | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,387 | 18% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · JAYRA MANZABA ALMEIDA | 37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,043 | 7.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · EMILIA RUIZ RONQUILLO | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 613 | 4.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · NARCISO ROSADO VILLAMAR | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 342 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · MOISES ELIAS LOZANO MURILLO | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 222 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · LUIS HERRERA | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 202 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SALUD Y TRABAJO · EDUARDO GARCIA | 24ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 85 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · ROMULO SALAS CERVANTES | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 73 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS50.7%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO29.9%
- PARTIDO AVANZA9.4%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO5.4%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO3.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"0.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · JACOME ALVAREZ MARIANA DE JESUS | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,961 | 50.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · ZAMBRANO ZAMBRANO RAMON AGUSTIN | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,515 | 29.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · ALVAREZ MARTILLO CINTHIA EMMA | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,102 | 9.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · CRUZ RONQUILLO FRANZ EDUARDO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 639 | 5.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · LUNA CRIOLLO ROSEBELL STALIN | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 409 | 3.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · BAJAÑA ALMEIDA FILOMENA | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 85 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · LUZARRAGA ROJAS MIGUEL ANGEL | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 44 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI6.830–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=27.24688247076307, oldest_gap=20.808166737558487, previous_gap=0.6852925672113841
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility22.5percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,6.112295664534471,0,0,93.88770433546553],[0,0,0,20.754574892687703,7.854507116499736,0,71.39091799081258],[0,9.374734155678434,0,5.435984687367077,0,50.71033602722246,34.47894512973203]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility60.09percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,6.112295664534471,0,0,93.88770433546553],[0,0,0,20.754574892687703,7.854507116499736,0,71.39091799081258],[0,9.374734155678434,0,5.435984687367077,0,50.71033602722246,34.47894512973203]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility41.29percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,6.112295664534471,0,0,93.88770433546553],[0,0,0,20.754574892687703,7.854507116499736,0,71.39091799081258],[0,9.374734155678434,0,5.435984687367077,0,50.71033602722246,34.47894512973203]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 20,369 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 940,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 20369,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-940",
"name": "NOBOL / PIEDRAHITA / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1467,
1468,
1812
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “NOBOL / PIEDRAHITA / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-940. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.