Office briefing
SANTA LUCÍA / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · SANTA LUCÍA / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-870
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- SANTA LUCÍA / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-5d8a16f2540444b9a4def9b7
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO24.9%
- POR EL BIENESTAR DE LOS LUCIANOS21.3%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA19.3%
- ALIANZA DEL FUTURO11.4%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO RENOVACIÓN10.8%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO7.8%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES4.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · UBALDO URQUIZO | 1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,382 | 24.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| POR EL BIENESTAR DE LOS LUCIANOS · MIGUEL ANGEL SOLORZANO SANCHEZ | 1235ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,475 | 21.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · MANUEL BASURTO | 42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,951 | 19.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA DEL FUTURO · LENIN PITA JIMENEZ | 1350ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,927 | 11.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO RENOVACIÓN · EDWIN ALMEIDA CARBO | 246ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,763 | 10.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · LEOCADIO FERRUZOLA | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,006 | 7.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · SHIRLEY MORA | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,158 | 4.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO31.1%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA26.1%
- MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL18.4%
- MINGA POR SANTA LUCIA8.8%
- FUERZA.EC7.6%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL4.0%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ1.5%
- MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS1.4%
- UNIDAD POPULAR0.6%
- ALIANZA CREO - ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · EDSON ALVARADO AROCA | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 7,484 | 31.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · MIGUEL ANGEL SOLORZANO SANCHEZ | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,289 | 26.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · PATRICIA AVILES JIMENEZ | 170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,426 | 18.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MINGA POR SANTA LUCIA · SANTOS VILLAMAR ALVARADO | 692ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,125 | 8.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · LENIN PITA JIMENEZ | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,818 | 7.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · CARLOS ENRIQUE PLUAS BRIONES | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 968 | 4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · ISABEL PIEDAD MOSQUERA YANEZ | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 372 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · FLORMARIA AGUIRRE | 142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 326 | 1.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · DOMINGO ORTEGA | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 137 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CREO - ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · SEINA RODRIGUEZ MASCOTE | 589ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 134 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS58.8%
- ALIANZA PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA LISTA 3, PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTA 6 Y EL MOVIMIENTO MADERA DE GUERRERO LISTA 7533.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO2.3%
- PARTIDO AVANZA2.1%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO1.9%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · SOLORZANO SANCHEZ MIGUEL ANGEL | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 13,198 | 58.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA LISTA 3, PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTA 6 Y EL MOVIMIENTO MADERA DE GUERRERO LISTA 75 · ALVARADO AROCA EDSON RAFAEL | 9018ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 7,424 | 33.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · SUMBA QUINAPAYO MARIA DIOSELINA | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 511 | 2.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · LAMILLA BENITEZ ANTONIO MIGUEL | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 475 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · LUZCANDO BARZOLA MANUEL ANDRES | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 428 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · PITA MACIAS JOSE ROBERTO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 422 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI69.10–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=3.534408853557789, oldest_gap=25.710214622851545, previous_gap=4.962830682337305
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility26.12percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,4.512508767827916,0,0,95.48749123217209],[0,0,0,0,0,26.11819427717098,73.88180572282901],[0,2.1150592216582065,0,1.905779677620447,0,58.76747706830528,37.211684032416066]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility36.67percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,4.512508767827916,0,0,95.48749123217209],[0,0,0,0,0,26.11819427717098,73.88180572282901],[0,2.1150592216582065,0,1.905779677620447,0,58.76747706830528,37.211684032416066]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility31.39percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,4.512508767827916,0,0,95.48749123217209],[0,0,0,0,0,26.11819427717098,73.88180572282901],[0,2.1150592216582065,0,1.905779677620447,0,58.76747706830528,37.211684032416066]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 34,974 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 870,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 34974,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-870",
"name": "SANTA LUCÍA / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1366,
1460,
1461,
1462,
1529,
1860,
1861
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “SANTA LUCÍA / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-870. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.