Office briefing
A.BAQUERIZO MORENO / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · A.BAQUERIZO MORENO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-835
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- A.BAQUERIZO MORENO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-9009d16bd2470d563e5bd6a2
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA DEL FUTURO41.9%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA17.3%
- PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO17.3%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK12.5%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA8.3%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR1.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES0.5%
- MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO0.4%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO0.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA DEL FUTURO · ANGELA HERRERA MENDEZ | 1350ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,538 | 41.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · NICOLAS UGALDE | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,696 | 17.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · CLAUDIA RODRIGUEZ | 1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,692 | 17.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ANGEL BURGOS | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,949 | 12.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · SANTIAGO MEDRANO | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,294 | 8.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · LISBETH CHOEZ ZAMBRANO | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 234 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · FRANCIS VILLACRES JIMENEZ | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 72 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO · MIRIAN TOAZA | 226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 70 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · JAMILA ALCIVAR | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 54 | 0.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO50.0%
- FUERZA.EC12.7%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA12.4%
- UNIDAD POPULAR9.6%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES7.4%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL3.3%
- MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS2.7%
- UNION ECUATORIANA1.2%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · ANGELA HERRERA MENDEZ | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 7,793 | 50% | 1 | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · ANGEL BURGOS | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,981 | 12.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · NICOLAS UGALDE YANEZ | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,937 | 12.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · MAURICIO SANCHEZ MOLINA | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,492 | 9.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · JUAN MARTINEZ | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,157 | 7.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · PATRICIO NUÑEZ | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 522 | 3.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · CLAUDIA RODRIGUEZ PINE | 142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 418 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNION ECUATORIANA · PEDRO WILLIAMS HOLGUIN SORIANO | 51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 184 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · JESSICA CARPIO | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 103 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO AVANZA34.3%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS32.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO15.3%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO6.1%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO DE FUERZA LIBERTARIA5.1%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO4.0%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO2.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO AVANZA · UGALDE YANEZ NICOLAS CONSTANTINO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,031 | 34.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · HERRERA YANEZ JORGE EDUARDO | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,809 | 32.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · MARTINEZ VILLACIS JUAN ALFREDO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,241 | 15.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · DIAZ CAISEDO JOHN FRANCISCO | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 891 | 6.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO DE FUERZA LIBERTARIA · GARCIA TORRES CARLOS EUGENIO | 9008ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 745 | 5.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · LAMA GARCES CARLOS OLEGARIO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 589 | 4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · TOMALA BRABO GRACIELA LEONOR | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 312 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · VARGAS BRAVO RUTH MAGDALENA | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 66 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=24.629783960510288, oldest_gap=1.5118496322527903, previous_gap=37.28748315904279
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility19.39percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,12.494390666068337,0.46156804923392525,0,0,87.04404128469774],[0,0,0,7.422852376980817,0,12.427022518765638,80.15012510425355],[0,34.26178153091801,0,15.261509125578861,0,32.74993189866522,17.72677744483792]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility62.42percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,12.494390666068337,0.46156804923392525,0,0,87.04404128469774],[0,0,0,7.422852376980817,0,12.427022518765638,80.15012510425355],[0,34.26178153091801,0,15.261509125578861,0,32.74993189866522,17.72677744483792]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility40.91percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,12.494390666068337,0.46156804923392525,0,0,87.04404128469774],[0,0,0,7.422852376980817,0,12.427022518765638,80.15012510425355],[0,34.26178153091801,0,15.261509125578861,0,32.74993189866522,17.72677744483792]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 21,604 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 835,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 21604,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-835",
"name": "A.BAQUERIZO MORENO / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1458,
1459
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “A.BAQUERIZO MORENO / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-835. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.