Office briefing

DURÁN / GUAYAS — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · DURÁN / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-820

Read the complete original research briefing

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography: DURÁN / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
Next election: 2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event: next-280ae11c865a5a7aaa09c86c
Registry qualification: Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

CHONILLO ¡AHORA SI! 15036.1%
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA24.6%
PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO21.1%
CAMBIEMOS LA HISTORIA6.2%
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO NACIONAL - IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA3.4%
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES3.3%
ALIANZA DEL FUTURO2.1%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA1.2%
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR0.8%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.5%
MOVIMIENTO LUIS RODAS TORAL0.3%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.3%

Results for event-fc902b3425c1637350f96f47
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
CHONILLO ¡AHORA SI! 150 · LUIS CHONILLO	1128ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	51,210	36.1%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · ALEXANDRA ARCE PLUAS	207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	34,942	24.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · RODRIGO APARICIO	1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	29,952	21.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
CAMBIEMOS LA HISTORIA · PABLO AYALA	1159ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	8,780	6.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO NACIONAL - IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · JOSE SOLIS	1481ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	4,881	3.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · STIVEN MOLINA PACHECO	99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	4,661	3.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
ALIANZA DEL FUTURO · ALEXANDRA CORNEJO POVEDA	1350ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	2,995	2.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · ANDREA PERALTA	42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	1,712	1.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · RICARDO VALLE MACIAS	231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	1,173	0.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · LEONIDAS CEVALLOS	39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	738	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LUIS RODAS TORAL · CARLOS GIOVANNI RODAS RAMIREZ	103ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	453	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · YAMIL GENARO LAYANA YAGUAL	157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023	450	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

6-MADERA DE GUERRERO34.3%
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL23.9%
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO22.3%
CREO - FE - MST5.2%
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO3.6%
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS1.8%
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA1.5%
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO DURÁN PUEDE MÁS1.3%
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE1.1%
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA0.9%
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL0.7%
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.6%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.4%
MOVIMIENTO LUIS RODAS TORAL0.4%
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.3%
UNIDAD POPULAR0.3%
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP0.3%
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.3%
MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META)0.2%
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.2%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.2%

Results for event-0e6781f4d97a550c06f83ba4
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · DALTON RAFAEL NARVAEZ MENDIETA	534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	47,621	34.3%	1	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · ALEXANDRA ARCE PLUAS	148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	33,230	23.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · LUIS CHONILLO	145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	30,987	22.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
CREO - FE - MST · ALFREDO ARBOLEDA	606ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	7,264	5.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · JOSE GERMAN SOLIS MONCADA	219ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	4,931	3.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · ALFONSO CORDOVA JURADO	142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	2,511	1.8%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · SHEILA YELENA REYES PEÑAFIEL	13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	2,142	1.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO DURÁN PUEDE MÁS · MIGUEL SANTOS BURGOS	211ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,762	1.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · LEONIDAS JACINTO CEVALLOS	158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,513	1.1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · LUIS BAQUERO	37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	1,264	0.9%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · MARGARITA PATIÑO GOMEZ	170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	949	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · DARIO JAVIER BARZOLA REYES	12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	812	0.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · JORGE ZAMBRANO SILVA	3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	616	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LUIS RODAS TORAL · GIOVANNI RODAS RAMIREZ	27ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	608	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · LUPE MARGARITA MARIN PONCE	152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	454	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR · ANA DEL PILAR MEDINA	143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	435	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · GLADYS VIVIANA MACIAS MOSQUERA	235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	422	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ · JOHNNY NEIRA	198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	409	0.3%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO EMERGENTE DE TRANSPARENCIA Y ACCION (META) · JOSE JAVIER CORTEZ BONE	50ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	338	0.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · EDGAR SALAZAR	18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	312	0.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · RODOLFO OSTAIZA ZAMBRANO	8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019	269	0.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO49.9%
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO39.0%
PARTIDO AVANZA4.2%
MOVIMIENTO CREO3.6%
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"1.0%
MOVIMIENTO LUIS RODAS TORAL0.7%
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO0.7%
MOVIMIENTO SUMA0.5%
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO0.4%

Results for event-72b46b2b181e9231d384ace8
Label / candidate	Party code	Votes	Share	Seats	Status
ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · ARCE PLUAS ALEXANDRA MANUELA	9017ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	62,189	49.9%	1	Recorded
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · NARVAEZ MENDIETA DALTON RAFAEL	9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	48,659	39%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA · CHUCHUCA QUITO ELVIS FRANKLIN	6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	5,269	4.2%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · HEREDIA SEVILLA MIGUEL ANGEL	8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	4,445	3.6%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · REYES REALPE CRISTHIAM JAVIER	4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	1,244	1%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LUIS RODAS TORAL · RODAS RAMIREZ CARLOS GIOVANNI	9003ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	919	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · ACOSTA CAJAPE IGNACIO MELECIO	2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	887	0.7%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA · ABAD GARCIA JORGE ARMANDO	13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	585	0.5%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · NAVARRO DIAZ JESSE JOHN	10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014	537	0.4%	0 (recorded zero)	Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

44.650–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.460615581872105, oldest_gap=10.847082591755253, previous_gap=10.364496683447488

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

3.28percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,3.283619942654653,0,0,96.71638005734539],[0,0,0.5848079568452059,0,0.9103414500644585,1.5426830585744227,96.96216753451593],[0,4.2241890743502175,0,3.5635833052736223,0.46899802780316513,0,91.743229592573]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

7.79percentage points

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,3.283619942654653,0,0,96.71638005734539],[0,0,0.5848079568452059,0,0.9103414500644585,1.5426830585744227,96.96216753451593],[0,4.2241890743502175,0,3.5635833052736223,0.46899802780316513,0,91.743229592573]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

5.54percentage points

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,3.283619942654653,0,0,96.71638005734539],[0,0,0.5848079568452059,0,0.9103414500644585,1.5426830585744227,96.96216753451593],[0,4.2241890743502175,0,3.5635833052736223,0.46899802780316513,0,91.743229592573]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

As of

Electors

Notes

2026-08-11

194,139

Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.

{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 820,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 9,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 194139,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-820",
  "name": "DURÁN / GUAYAS",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1362,
    1363,
    1364,
    1365,
    1374,
    1375,
    1376,
    1377,
    1378,
    1379,
    1447,
    1448,
    1449,
    1450,
    1451,
    1452,
    1453,
    1454,
    1455,
    1456,
    1457,
    1476,
    1477,
    1478,
    1479,
    1480,
    1641,
    1904,
    1905,
    1906,
    1908,
    1909,
    1917
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

Sources

Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown

Cite this record

Center for Digital Democracy. “DURÁN / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-820. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.