Office briefing
SIMÓN BOLÍVAR / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · SIMÓN BOLÍVAR / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-790
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- SIMÓN BOLÍVAR / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-0e8c091739c7b7c0ab9cc2bc
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA41.9%
- SIMÓN BOLÍVAR PRIMERO17.1%
- PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO15.5%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK10.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO6.0%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA5.6%
- ALIANZA POR SIMON BOLIVAR1.5%
- ALIANZA DEL FUTURO1.3%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · MARIA FERNANDA VARGAS | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,499 | 41.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| SIMÓN BOLÍVAR PRIMERO · MARIA JOSE CISNEROS | 1249ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,647 | 17.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · KATTY SANCHEZ | 1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 2,398 | 15.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · MERY TROYA | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,639 | 10.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · PAUL MONTALVO | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 924 | 6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · ALEXANDER MEJIA | 42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 864 | 5.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR SIMON BOLIVAR · RICHARD FIRMAT | 1417ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 236 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA DEL FUTURO · JAIME ARMANDO ARANA | 1350ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 209 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA · PAMELA CADENA | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 77 | 0.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO47.5%
- ALIANZA CREO - CENTRO DEMOCRATICO29.4%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK15.3%
- UNIDAD POPULAR2.3%
- MOVIMIENTO SALUD Y TRABAJO1.6%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA1.5%
- FUERZA.EC1.5%
- UNION ECUATORIANA0.6%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.4%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · JORGE VERA ZAVALA | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 6,996 | 47.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CREO - CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · JOHNNY FIRMAT CHANG | 593ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,326 | 29.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · JAIME ARANA | 12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,250 | 15.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · ARIEL VICENTE BAZAN VARGAS | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 337 | 2.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SALUD Y TRABAJO · DENNYS ALEGRIA MANZO | 24ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 233 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · JUAN AMERICO VARGAS RICCARDI | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 221 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · ALIDA GUANO CHEQUER | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 217 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNION ECUATORIANA · RENEE PEÑAFIEL TRIANA | 51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 85 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · FERNANDO HOLGUIN | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 62 | 0.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO CREO34.7%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO33.1%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS19.6%
- PARTIDO AVANZA11.8%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO0.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · FIRMAT CHANG JOHNNY RICARDO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,652 | 34.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · VERA ZAVALA JORGE MODESTO | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,437 | 33.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · PEÑAFIEL RIZZO RENE MARLON | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,629 | 19.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · TROYA GOMEZ MERY CRUZ | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,580 | 11.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO · AGUIAR RAMOS ANGEL RIGOBERTO | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 124 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=24.862841283160133, oldest_gap=1.601847712710473, previous_gap=18.129965369729067
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility6.2percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,10.578971148260505,0,0,0,89.42102885173949],[0,0,15.278060704827867,0,0,1.5006450736742039,83.22129422149793],[0,11.771718074802562,0,34.65951423036805,0,19.58724482193414,33.98152287289525]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility64.52percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,10.578971148260505,0,0,0,89.42102885173949],[0,0,15.278060704827867,0,0,1.5006450736742039,83.22129422149793],[0,11.771718074802562,0,34.65951423036805,0,19.58724482193414,33.98152287289525]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility35.36percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,10.578971148260505,0,0,0,89.42102885173949],[0,0,15.278060704827867,0,0,1.5006450736742039,83.22129422149793],[0,11.771718074802562,0,34.65951423036805,0,19.58724482193414,33.98152287289525]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 21,738 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 790,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 21738,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-790",
"name": "SIMÓN BOLÍVAR / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1444,
1445,
1446,
1575
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “SIMÓN BOLÍVAR / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-790. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.