Office briefing
PEDRO CARBO / GUAYAS — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · PEDRO CARBO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · MayorEC-M-9-715
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- PEDRO CARBO / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-90513029fb60a6abeadfc93f
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA44.2%
- PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO22.0%
- 1-3321.1%
- ALIANZA PEDRO CARBO10.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO1.6%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA0.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · NERY JARAMILLO TOAPANTA | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 14,049 | 44.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO · XAVIER GOMEZ | 1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,994 | 22% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 1-33 · LEONARDO POSLIGUA SALTOS | 1440ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,702 | 21.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA PEDRO CARBO · FRANCISCO GARAY MARTILLO | 1405ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,220 | 10.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO · HIPOLITO PARIS MORENO | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 513 | 1.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA · MARIA JOSE SALAZAR | 42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 289 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO33.0%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA19.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO19.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES9.1%
- PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE4.7%
- UNION ECUATORIANA4.4%
- MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL1.8%
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA1.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.2%
- MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO1.2%
- FUERZA.EC1.2%
- UNIDAD POPULAR1.2%
- MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS1.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · XAVIER MARTINO GOMEZ SALAZAR | 534ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 9,306 | 33% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA · NERY JAVIER JARAMILLO TOAPANTA | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,594 | 19.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · JAVIER GARAY MARTILLO | 8ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,544 | 19.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES · AMANDO ANGEL CORREA GRANOBLE | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,558 | 9.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · PEDRO JOSE ARANEA | 158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,329 | 4.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNION ECUATORIANA · DAVID SANTOS RODRIGUEZ | 51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,234 | 4.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL · JOSE GREGORIO SALAZAR | 170ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 506 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA · LUIGGI MUZZIO | 37ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 481 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · ERWIN ANTONIO RODRIGUEZ SANTOS | 3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 340 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO · JORGE LUIS BAJAÑA SUAREZ | 219ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 334 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| FUERZA.EC · DENIS DAVID VELEZ PLAZA | 146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 330 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR · LUCY MARCELA SALAZAR LOPEZ | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 327 | 1.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS · BOLIVAR ERAZO | 142ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 277 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS43.8%
- PARTIDO AVANZA31.4%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"8.4%
- 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO5.1%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO3.9%
- PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL2.6%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA2.1%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO0.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · FIGUEROA GONZALES IGNACIO XAVIER | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 8,679 | 43.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · GOMEZ SALAZAR XAVIER MARTINO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 6,215 | 31.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · ALVAREZ VENEGAS VILMA SOFIA | 4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,655 | 8.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO · PALMA MACIAS LETTY MARIANA | 9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,013 | 5.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO · FREIRE ALVARADO MANUEL ANTONIO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 778 | 3.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL · ROBINS BARCIA JOSE ROBERTO | 9ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 517 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · SANCHEZ CANTOS EDISON ATILIO | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 416 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO · AVILA FRANCO ALBINO DECIDERIO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 374 | 1.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO · SANCHEZ SANCHEZ PEDRO LUIS | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 172 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI7.390–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=22.2085812320962, oldest_gap=12.43251425399869, previous_gap=13.181818181818183
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,9.083806818181818,1.7080965909090908,19.865056818181817,69.34303977272727],[0,31.35879711388062,0,3.925526010394066,2.0989959130127653,43.79131136787931,18.825369594833244]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility55.68percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,9.083806818181818,1.7080965909090908,19.865056818181817,69.34303977272727],[0,31.35879711388062,0,3.925526010394066,2.0989959130127653,43.79131136787931,18.825369594833244]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,9.083806818181818,1.7080965909090908,19.865056818181817,69.34303977272727],[0,31.35879711388062,0,3.925526010394066,2.0989959130127653,43.79131136787931,18.825369594833244]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 43,093 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 715,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 9,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 43093,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-9-715",
"name": "PEDRO CARBO / GUAYAS",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
1433,
1434,
1435,
1436,
1437,
1438,
1919
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “PEDRO CARBO / GUAYAS — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-9-715. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.